-Caveat Lector- Mass production, mass destruction Proliferation of strategic weapons continues to grow By Tammy Kupperman NBC NEWS http://www.msnbc.com/news/295230.asp For maps THIS IS NOT science fiction. It happened in Tokyo in 1995 when the Aum Shinrikyo cult mounted the first real chemical weapons terrorist attack in history. Galvanized by the Tokyo subway attack and the bombings at the World Trade Center in 1993 and the Murrah federal building in Oklahoma City in 1996, the U.S. government has rethought its approach to foiling such efforts ahead of time. Yet as the world�s intelligence services grapple with the changing nature of these threats, weapons like chemical and biological agents and even ballistic missiles have proliferated. Former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, who authored a recent report on the subject, told NBC News that �proliferation is so pervasive today and the availability of these technologies is so extensive that the reality is we�re in a new national security environment.� MASS DESTRUCTION/MASS PRODUCTION Successive federal government reports since these attacks have warned of the increasing threat posed by the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction among �rogue states� and of �delivery vehicles� such as long ranged missiles. The term weapons of mass destruction refers to nuclear, biological, and chemical devices. But while the spread of missile technology intensifies the threat, such technology is not needed to wreak havoc through the use of such weapons. As shown in Tokyo, something as simple as an open canister of a chemical agent can bring disaster. Similarly, biological, radiological, and chemical attacks can be launched with the use of crop-dusters, small boats, mortars and even cargo aircraft. The nuclear-armed planet MSNBC Interactive � Click here to see nuclear stockpiles around the world (requires Flash plugin) The issue is hardly confined to terrorism, either. The Pentagon takes the possibility of an anthrax attack against its troops so seriously that it took the highly controversial decision last year to inoculate all 2.5 million active duty and reserve troops. Traditionally, the U.S. has focused its defenses against such weapons on its military, which in the old scenario seemed more likely to be targeted. But since the end of the Cold War, conflicts have become more disparate and potential rivals harder to keep tabs on. Only in the last several years has the U.S. government focused on chemical and biological threats to the civilian population. It is a threat that most experts and even government officials concede the U.S. is ill-prepared to face. NEW FOCUS, NEW FEARS Top U.S. officials fear it is only a matter of time before weapons of mass destruction are used against U.S. civilians either at home or abroad. But carrying out such an attack � actually detonating a chemical or biological weapon, for instance � is harder than it sounds. Still, counter-terrorism experts agree that the raw materials for such an operation � anthrax spores, for example � are not too difficult for a nation, even a terrorist organization, to obtain. The effects of even a small-scale chemical attack could be profound and lingering. Beyond the obvious physical and human tolls, far reaching psychological effects occur and often civil liberties are curtailed to counter future threats. THE ACTORS Before the Gulf War, biological organisms were sold to Iraq by the U.S.-based American Type Culture Collection. While export controls have been tightened since then, most experts and government officials agree that it is not difficult to grow spores such as of anthrax. UNSCOM in Iraq MSNBC Interactive Guide A timeline of U.N. inspections in Iraq In fact, relatively little of Iraq�s believed biological capability was found by U.N. inspectors before the multinational inspection regime was permanently thwarted by Iraq. At least one major facility was found at al-Hakam that contained fermenters for the growth of biological organisms. But according to the CIA, Iraq has still failed to account for three tons of growth media it imported and more than 100 biological bombs. Iraq is but one of many nations known to have developed or be developing chemical or biological weapons. In fact, the Pentagon�s last proliferation report, �Proliferation: Threat and Response,� claims that �more than 25 countries have or may be developing NBC (nuclear, biological, chemical) weapons along with the means to deliver them. �A larger number are capable of producing such weapons on short notice,� the report concluded. HOLDING BACK THE RIVER While national ballistic missile and weapons of mass destruction programs have forced the U.S. to spend billions developing missile defenses, U.S. government analysts fear they may be more vulnerable to missiles and weapons launched by terrorists. U.S. government officials believe, for instance, that Osama bin Laden, the wealthy Saudi-born man wanted in the 1998 U.S. embassy blasts in Africa, may now have a rudimentary chemical capability. Biological Warfare MSNBC Interactive guide A look at the effects of biological weaponry When U.S. cruise missiles attacked a Sudanese chemical plant nearly a year ago, U.S. officials said it was because the soil outside the plant, whose owner had ties to bin Laden, had tested positive for traces of EMPTA, a precursor chemical to the deadly nerve agent VX. The U.S. claim has since been widely criticized by independent scientists who doubt the presence of EMPTA could be determined by a single soil sample obtained by the U.S. Iraq and Sudan have both harbored terrorists in the past and Palestinian terrorist Abu Nidal is still believed by U.S. government officials to be in Iraq. Both Iraq and Sudan have cooperated on chemical programs. Halting the spread of these technologies has proven difficult. Russia, China, and North Korea have been known to sell nuclear and ballistic technology in the past. In addition, Chinese and North Korean expertise helps explain how Pakistan detonated its first nuclear weapon in 1998. And Indian and Pakistani missile capabilities are largely built on re-engineered or purchased foreign technology. North Korea�s programs in particular raise alarm in Washington, Tokyo, Seoul and Beijing. North Korea has already tested a three-stage version of its Taepo Dong missile, which may have come close to U.S. territory during test flights. U.S. officials told NBC News that while North Korea is expected to test the longer range Taepo Dong-2 missile in the coming months, so far analysts have only seen initial test preparations. The advanced test preparations do not appear to have taken place. THE AMERICAN RESPONSE Former U.S. defense secretary Rumsfeld said it is not realistic for anyone to think that the U.S. can simply erect a �net to catch all of those things that would impose those kinds of risks.� Rumsfeld, head of the 1998 Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States, advised that the U.S. must learn to �live� in a world where proliferation of these weapons has taken root. �We can try to delay,� he said, �but in fact it is so pervasive in the world that the likelihood that these countries are not going to have these weapons in relatively short order is very small.� So what to do? Last year the Clinton Administration conceded that the threat of a ballistic missile attack on the U.S. is here. The administration embarked full steam on a national missile defense program, favored by congressional Republicans, to defend the United States from attack by one or a small number of ballistic missiles. North Korea's ballistic missile Taepodong-1 blasts into the space, in this poster produced in Pyongyang, capital of North Korea. A similar �umbrella� is being considered by Asian countries, but some worry such a move will force China to counter with a missile building spree. But the missile defense idea has not yet been proven. Just this week, for only the second time in many tries, the Army�s Theatre High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile intercepted a ballistic missile in a test at New Mexico�s White Sands Missile Range. Other systems are also under development, sparked primarily by the Patriot missile�s poor performance in the Gulf War. While billions of Pentagon dollars are going toward ballistic missile defenses, other funds are being committed in an attempt to prepare for what experts believe is a likely chemical or biological weapons attack in the United States. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the Department of Defense are involved in training local law enforcement officers, emergency medical technicians, and fire departments in how to handle a chemical or biological incident before more help arrives. In addition, National Guard RAID teams are being trained for deployment in regions around the country. And the Department of Defense has Army and Marine units designed to respond to such incidents. INADEQUATE PREPARATIONS Many experts have criticized the response time of agencies for being inadequate to cope with a real incident. If and when an incident occurs, the potential for missteps is still extraordinary. The case of the B�nai Brith hoax in Washington, D.C. several years ago is an excellent example. Even though the capital area arguably has the best chemical and biological response capability, one of the first technicians almost contaminated hundreds of people after opening a petri dish labeled as toxic substance inside the B�nai Brith building. The incident turned out to be bogus, but the next time officials worry it could be real. NBC�s Tammy Kupperman is a producer based at the Pentagon in Washington. DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion and informational exchange list. Proselyzting propagandic screeds are not allowed. Substance�not soapboxing! These are sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory', with its many half-truths, misdirections and outright frauds is used politically by different groups with major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought. That being said, CTRL gives no endorsement to the validity of posts, and always suggests to readers; be wary of what you read. 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