-Caveat Lector-
> August 13, 1999
>
> Kosovo - New Dawn For An Ethical Foreign Policy?
> By Oxford Analytica
>
> The success of NATO in forcing the Serbian army to quit Kosovo
> has led some western leaders, notably the UK Prime Minister Tony
> Blair, to espouse a new "moral" emphasis in foreign policy. While
> a complete abandonment of self-interest for ethics can be
> dismissed, there are important new factors affecting the conduct
> of international affairs, which vary in regional applicability.
>
> NATO's intervention in Kosovo has helped reinforce the belief
> that ethical and moral considerations are eclipsing traditional
> calculations of national self-interest in international affairs.
> This assertion is associated with a wider argument that regional
> political integration, the rise of transnational issues
> (international crime, notably drugs and terrorism), and economic
> globalization have undermined state-based definitions of
> international relations. It is within this context that
> conceptions of a new ethically-based foreign policy have been
> forged.
>
> This theory, at least in its most sweeping character, is
> relatively easy to discredit. For instance, the United States -
> without whom any coordinated international action is difficult -
> displays a considerable reluctance to bear the human cost of
> foreign interventions. Moreover, in the post-Cold War world,
> so-called value-based policies have been applied inconsistently.
> While NATO chose to liberate Kosovo, none of the alliance members
> intervened in Chechnya, and French involvement in Rwanda was
> driven by traditional francophone interests. This problem is not
> helped by the lack of consensus, even within the Western world,
> about definitions of "universal rights."
>
> Nevertheless, there are a number of new features of the post-Cold
> War world that are relatively distinctive. The blurring of the
> differences between "moral" and "interest" based foreign policies
> has created more opportunities for an ethically-driven exercise
> of political authority.
>
> These factors include:
>
> - The declining number of traditional state-on-state security
> issues (ranging from external intimidation to hostile conquests)
> over the last decade and the increase in internal conflicts
> structured around civil wars or the complete implosion of state
> authority.
>
> - A notable philosophical shift, particularly in the United
> States, towards the idea of a limited number of crimes against
> humanity. These developments were initially influenced by the
> Holocaust and are now widely accepted as legitimate reasons for
> intruding into the internal affairs of a sovereign state. The
> U.S. government was, for example, exceedingly reluctant to
> describe the events in Rwanda five years ago as genocide for fear
> that this would oblige them to intervene.
>
> - An acceptance of at least a modest link between the internal
> structures of states (democracies or dictatorships, market or
> totalitarian economies) and the nature of their foreign policy.
> In general terms, dictatorships are seen as a potential danger to
> more than their own citizens. This provides a "moral" and
> "self-interested" reason to resist them. There is also a wider
> acceptance of the idea of a "contagion" effect, whereby
> instability in one part of a region may prove a threat to the
> rest of the area if not contained or eliminated.
>
> While the previous three developments are potentially reversible,
> there is another secular force at work. Modern military
> technology may mean that traditional ideas of conflict based
> largely on the quantity of hardware are being replaced by a new
> doctrine, centered on the quality of equipment. This could allow
> states, in certain circumstances, to feel that they can wage
> "ethical" wars at tolerable costs.
>
> However, these ideas have different geographical implications and
> amount to a more complex mosaic than a single "new world order"
> influenced by moral concerns. In generalized terms, this can be
> summarized in a four-fold regional division.
>
> - States where stability is the norm and neither ethical nor
> interested intervention is likely to be needed. Such regions
> include the nations of North America (and increasingly Latin
> America), Western Europe (and increasingly North-eastern Europe),
> Japan (subject to the behavior of North Korea) and Australasia.
>
> - States where instability is commonplace and where the costs of
> intervention are deemed so high (and the returns so low) as to
> preclude either ethical or even self-interested action. Such
> regions include the majority of the developing world, especially
> sub-Saharan Africa.
>
> - States whose size and character means that direct intervention
> for either ethical or self-interested motives is hopelessly
> impractical. These would include Russia, China and in all
> probability India and Pakistan. Outside activity here must be
> diplomatic, or at best, economic, in nature.
>
> - States that fall into key "borderline" areas where ethical
> intervention may be deemed desirable, practical and plausible in
> terms of costs and benefits. These are: the Middle East and the
> Gulf Area; the Southeast/East Asian fringe ranging from
> Indo-China to the Korean peninsula; and South-eastern Europe (the
> Balkans and states, except Russia, that once formed part of the
> Soviet Union).
>
> Kosovo satisfied all the above criteria for action. It involved
> the implosion of a state (the former Yugoslavia); a dictatorship
> and the credible risk of a contagion effect. It was also assumed
> that the application of new military technology would keep costs
> to a tolerable level. Furthermore, Kosovo is located in a key
> "borderline" region and genocide could plausibly be cited as a
> rationale for action. All of these factors allowed ethical
> considerations to both fuse with and, to some extent, supersede
> notions of self-interest. Nonetheless, NATO action was delayed,
> and considerable disagreement was evident within the alliance
> over the means and length of time that would be necessary to
> achieve their aims. This suggests that future interventions in
> similar circumstances cannot be guaranteed.
>
> (Oxford Analytica is an international consulting firm that
> provides analysis of worldwide political, economic and social
> developments. It also provides a segment in the Emerging Markets
> programme broadcast by Reuters Television at 1430 GMT each
> Thursday). ((c) 1999 Reuters)
>
>
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<<Some of the above reads like the A-B-C list of priorities when
determining if and when to take action in a foreign policy way.
A<>E<>R >>
A<>E<>R
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