-Caveat Lector-

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Today's Lesson From [a letter to his sister] (Bonn, 1865)

by Friedrich Nietzsche


...is it really so difficult simply to accept everything that one has
been brought up on and that has gradually struck deep roots--what is
considered truth in the circle of one's relatives and of many good men,
and what, moreover, really comforts and elevates man? Is that more
difficult than to strike new paths, fighting the habitual, experiencing
the insecurity of independence and the frequent wavering of one's
feelings and even one's conscience, proceeding often without any
consolation, but ever with the eternal goal of the true, the beautiful,
and the good? Is it decisive after all that we arrive at that view of
God, world, and reconcilliation which makes us feel most comfortable?
Rather, is not the result of his inquiries something wholly indifferent
to the true inquirer? Do we after all seek rest, peace, and pleasure in
our inquiries? No, only truth--even if it be the most abhorrent and
ugly. Still one last question: if we had believed from childhood that
all salvation issued from someone other than Jesus--say, from
Mohammed--is it not certain that we should have experienced the same
blessings? . . . Faith does not offer the least support for a proof of
objective truth. Here the ways of men part: if you wish to strive for
peace of soul and pleasure, then believe; if you wish to be a devotee of
truth, then inquire . . .
=====
End-of-Week Rollover

GPS System Set to Fail This Saturday

The end of 1023 weeks

MILLIONS of navigation devices around the world face the threat of
failure at midnight next Saturday when a global satellite network is hit
by its own version of the Millennium bug. Experts are worried about the
risk of accidents to light planes and sailing boats.
Fear of the "end-of-week" bug has prompted government agencies in
America to alert pilots, sailors, as well as drivers, climbers, hikers
and others who rely on the Global Positioning Satellite system. Warnings
have also been issued by the International Maritime Organisation and
Ireland's minister of marine and natural resources.

But in Britain, where such devices are common and where the Ministry of
Agriculture, Fisheries and Food will require all fishing vessels over 24
metres long to carry GPS monitoring terminals from 2000, no official
warnings have been issued. This is despite the fact that the bug could
disable systems and endanger life as planes and boats approach air and
seaports.

A spokesman at the Department of the Environment, Transport and the
Regions said: "It is an American system and people chose to buy into it,
so it is their look-out." He said that the ministry had known about the
problem for some time and was relying on "information filtering down to
the owners of private aircraft" and other amateur users from
aeronautical information circulars.

He said: "There is the risk that for a short period equipment could be
giving out wrong signals, but I understand that the equipment does right
itself." He added that the department had "no obligation" to warn users.
The US Defence Department, which runs the GPS network, or the Federal
Aviation Authority was responsible.

The bug has arisen because the GPS system, a constellation of 24
satellites around the globe, keeps track of time by counting the number
of weeks since it went into operation in 1980. The counter, which allows
for about 20 years' worth of weeks, computes up to 1,023. At midnight
next Saturday, week 1,023 ends and the counter rolls back to zero.

An American congressional sub-committee heard in May that, while
military, space and most commercial systems were well prepared, small
businesses and amateur users could be hard hit. Keith Rhodes, technical
director in the Office of the Chief Scientist, told the sub-committee:
"The satellites will not fall out of the sky and will not lose their
power. The problem will be on the ground, with what you hold in your
hand."

Hand-held receivers such as those popular with mountaineers, sailors and
some motorists were "probably going to have a problem" if they were more
than five years old.

A notice issued by the United States transport department said:
"Consumers who depend on GPS at sea, on land or in the air may
experience one of these problems with their receiver: it will be unable
to locate the satellites, resulting in the receiver not working; it will
take more time than usual to locate the satellites; it will appear to be
working but display inaccurate positions, times or dates."

David Rowlands, a senior official at the British transport department,
told a Commons select committee last November that receivers affected by
the bug "would not generate false readings but would simply fail".

The Ministry of Defence said that it had completed all the necessary
fixes to its equipment. A spokesman said: "We will not have any
problems. GPS is used extensively, but as a complementary system. We
have updated all systems as necessary, including cruise missiles on
submarines."

Civilian GPS receivers have been available for about 10 years and are
routinely built into cars, sailing boats, light aircraft and even London
taxis. They cost as little as £100 and are now being incorporated in
watches and mobile telephones.

Each of the 24 satellites in the system carries an atomic clock from
which it transmits a continuous time signal. By comparing the time
signals from at least three satellites, a receiver can use triangulation
to work out its position on Earth to an accuracy of 30ft. As with the
Millennium bug, nobody knows exactly how far-reaching the consequences
of the atomic clocks resetting themselves to week zero will be to the
navigation devices.

John Lovell, director of quality for Trimble Navigation Ltd, the leading
maker of GPS devices, said that products bought in the past three to
five years would not have any serious problems. He said: "There is a
very small chance of a navigational error, but not zero. Everyone should
check with the manufacturer to make sure."

Garmin and Magellan, two other leading makers of GPS equipment, have
posted information for their customers on their web sites. Garmin issued
a warning that some of its older products might need "to perform an
'autolocate' or 'search the sky' operation to acquire satellites and
perform navigation functions after the GPS week number rollover occurs".


The company said also that its equipment could malfunction when used in
conjunction with other incompatible equipment, data or software, such as
electronic charts or auto-pilot systems. Magellan, which has sold more
than a million receivers since 1989, has been testing all its current
and discontinued receivers, starting with the most recently released
products.

It described the task of testing more than 100 products as "an enormous
and an important one". With less than a week to go, only 51 of its
products are listed on its web site as "end-of-week compliant". People
with products not judged to be compliant are advised to contact
Magellan, which will determine whether the product should be fixed or
modified.

Nigel Waterson, the Tories' transport spokesman, condemned the
Government for not taking a more active role in warning the public. He
said: "It is potentially a very irresponsible attitude. We may be
talking about the safety of yachtsmen and other British users. Whatever
the origins of the satellite system, it is not something that ministers
can wash their hands of."

The London Telegraph, August 16, 1999


Gold Market

A Central Bank Rush to Dump Gold?

"It's all your fault," they tell BOE


Central banks of the world's leading economies have warned the Bank of
England that the UK's decision to sell official gold reserves may put
them under pressure to do the same.


Central bankers in the G10 group of nations, which include some of the
world's biggest gold holders, have told officials of the UK's central
bank during talks in Basle, Switzerland, that the sale could cause
instability in the gold market.


The banks fear that further falls in the gold price could lead to wider
debate about the value of holding gold as an asset, compelling them to
review their own reserve policies.


Although gold has long been regarded by central banks as a hedge against
inflation and a symbol of monetary stability, growing importance is now
attached to increasing the return that reserves earn. A long-term
decline in the price of gold has undermined the case for holding large
quantities.


Criticism by the world's central banks of the UK sale reflects their
unease at the impact of the disposal, which was unusual for being
announced in advance and conducted in a series of public auctions. The
price of gold has see-sawed wildly in recent weeks, plunging at the end
of last month to its lowest level in 20 years.


The banks are concerned that the sale may be significant and lasting
because of the leadership role traditionally played by Britain, and the
historical links between the Bank of England and the London bullion
market. The disposal could create uncertainty about the intentions of
other first division gold holders, depressing the gold price more.


The UK, which is to sell more than half its $6.5bn gold reserves in the
next few years and replace them with foreign currency assets, is not
alone in wanting to reduce its holdings. Switzerland has signalled that
it wanted to dispose of 1,300 tonnes of gold after severing the franc's
formal link with the metal.


But other nations, including Germany, France, Italy and the US, have so
far shown no inclination to sell. "The principal holders of gold would
rather not sell and do not want to see the issue raised to the point of
public debate," said a central bank official.


The concerns voiced by central banks may heighten speculation about
discomfort within the Bank of England itself over the sale. Eddie
George, governor, has expressed his support for the move, but is
reported to have argued against it.


The UK government yesterday defended its decision to sell. "We have
taken advice from the Bank of England on the way forward and we think it
is a sensible thing to do," said a Treasury official.


Opposition to gold sales has increased. Under pressure from the US
Congress, the International Monetary Fund is reconsidering the planned
sale of 10m ounces of gold to fund debt relief.

The Financial Times, August 16, 1999


Russian Follies

Chechnya Declares State of Emergency as Russia Bombs Dagestan

The military use of avalanches

THE breakaway republic of Chechnya declared a state of emergency at the
weekend as heavy clashes continued between Russian forces and Islamic
guerrillas in neighbouring Dagestan.
Chechen military units, especially border guards, were put on heightened
alert in a decree which also imposed an overnight curfew and a ban on
all media except state television. The move follows Russian threats to
bomb rebel camps inside Chechnya and a brief intrusion into the republic
by Moscow's troops last week.

Chechnya has denied any involvement in the fighting raging in Dagestan's
mountain passes. But powerful Chechen warlords appear to be leading the
rebels, who have declared a separate Islamic state and a holy war to
drive Russia from the North Caucasus region.

The uprising, now in its second week, is the worst security crisis for
Moscow since the 1994-96 war which ended with Chechnya's de facto
independence from the Russian Federation.

Yesterday, Russian helicopter gunships and SU-25 aircraft pounded
guerrilla positions in what was described as a prelude to a ground
offensive by paratroopers to seize strategic high ground in Dagestan's
Botlikh district. Moscow has rushed reinforcements to the region and has
vowed to put down the insurgency quickly.

About 60 rebels, commanded by the Chechen warlord Shamil Basayev's
brother Shirvani, were buried alive by an avalanche started by
volunteers loyal to Moscow, reported Dagestani officials. Russia has
sought to deploy a home guard made up of Dagestanis alongside
paramilitary and regular army units, a tactic criticised yesterday by
the influential leader of another North Caucasus republic, Gen Ruslan
Aushev of Ingushetia.

Moscow claims to have inflicted huge casualties on the insurgents,
including 200 killed and 300 wounded. But the rebels dispute the losses,
and it is impossible to verify either side's accounts of the fighting in
remote areas of the mountainous, multi-ethnic republic on the Caspian
Sea.

The London Telegraph, August 16, 1999


Electronic Markets

MCI WorldCom Failure Disrupts CBOT Futures Trading

There seems to be a problem with the network


The Chicago Board of Trade, the world's largest futures exchange, has
lost about four days of business on its out-of-hours electronic trading
system in the past 10 days because of network failures at MCI WorldCom.


The exchange warned traders on Friday that its electronic system,
Project A, would be out of action until last night, and launched a
back-up plan. MCI WorldCom said yesterday it was working to complete
repairs to the high-speed data network and expected to restore it by
last night.


"Market users worldwide depend on Project A around the clock and MCI
WorldCom has let them down for one full week," said Tom Donovan, CBOT
president. "As a result of MCI WorldCom's failure to deliver on their
promises to me early last week, CBOT is pursuing all available
remedies." CBOT, which trades about 45,000 contracts a day
electronically, said it had already lost a substantial volume of
business because of the network problems.


The exchange said it was considering its position in terms of seeking
compensation from MCI WorldCom, but would not comment further.


MCI WorldCom said: "Any time our service to customers is interrupted, it
is important to us. Investigative teams are working to identify the
cause of the problem." The telecoms group confirmed that senior managers
were working with CBOT officials on the issue of compensation.


Under its back-up plan, the exchange has deployed additional screens in
the CBOT building and provided dial-up access to members.


The problems began at 9.21pm Chicago time on Thursday August 5, when
Project A trading was suspended because of a network failure. The system
remained out of action until Tuesday August 10, losing business for
Friday and Monday. Further problems meant trading had to be suspended
again for three hours the following day.


On Thursday, CBOT shut down Project A at 1pm because of a power failure
in the Chicago region. Trading was due to resume on Friday at 8am but
was unable to do so because of renewed problems.


The exchange was expecting to have Project A back on line at 6pm
yesterday.

The Financial Times, August 16, 1999


Indian Elections

Vajpayee Applauds India's Nuclear Muscle

What's more, we kicked Pakistan's butt, and we're number one

NEW DELHI - A stern but secure-sounding Prime Minister Atal Bihari
Vajpayee, apparently headed toward victory in parliamentary elections
next month, offered his vision Sunday of an India that has proved its
might against military attackers, staved off economic crisis and united
across religious and ethnic lines as it enters the new millennium.
Addressing the nation on the 52d anniversary of its independence from
Britain, Mr. Vajpayee referred proudly and repeatedly to India's recent
defeat of Pakistani-based fighters during a two-month border war in the
Kargil sector of Kashmir, and said Pakistan's attack had vindicated
India's controversial decision last year to test nuclear weapons in the
Pokhran desert.

''The world saw Pokhran as irresponsible, but today the world has seen
what we risked for our national security,'' Mr. Vajpayee said, reading
in Hindi from behind a bulletproof glass lectern atop Old Delhi's
historic Red Fort. ''We showed we would not bow down to pressure. Kargil
showed that when our patriotism is challenged, every Indian stands up
together.''

[Mr. Vajpayee said India would add the long-range, nuclear-capable Agni
ballistic missile to its arsenal after successful tests, Reuters
reported.

[''Pokhran gave us strength, which in turn gave us self-confidence,''
Mr. Vajpayee said in reference to the site of the nuclear tests last
year. ''Against pressures we also successfully tested Agni-2, which will
be included in our weapons program.'']

India's annual independence ceremony, which featured marching bands and
children singing patriotic songs, was held under unprecedented security
because of fears of attacks by Islamic rebels or Pakistani agents. No
incidents were reported, but thousands of police and soldiers surrounded
the site and barred all traffic from entering any nearby streets.

Numerous recent polls show that Mr. Vajpayee, 73, and his Hindu
nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party are likely to be swept along in a
tide of postwar euphoria to a relatively easy parliamentary majority
against their chief rival, the liberal secular Congress (I) Party headed
by Sonia Gandhi. The first round of elections is scheduled for Sept. 4.

One poll in the current Outlook magazine said Mr. Vajpayee's party and
its allies were now likely to win more than 280 seats, while Congress
Party may not capture more than 160. Other polls have put the tally at
more than 300 seats in the 543-member lower house. Every survey shows
that the Kargil victory, and national security issues in general, have
sold the public on Mr. Vajpayee and helped his party overcome its past
image as a religious reactionary movement.

''Kargil has reversed the national mood and done a U-turn for the BJP,''
said Bhaskara Rao, a leading independent pollster who heads the Center
for Media Studies and who also predicts a massive victory for the party
. ''The undercurrent of security is all-pervasive in the national psyche
right now, and younger voters are feeling especially hot and bullish.''

Mr. Vajpayee has been caretaker prime minister since mid-April, when
Congress Party forced and won a vote of no-confidence in his government
but was then unable to form an alternative one. Since then, the
opposition has taken a heavy public beating for bringing down an elected
government and has been unable to reap any political gain from the
Kargil victory.

Response to Mr. Vajpayee's early morning speech among the crowds
streaming out of the old Mogul fort was overwhelmingly positive and
tinged with patriotic sentiment. A number of people described the
elderly, white-haired politician as a strong and experienced leader who
had shown his mettle in Kargil, while also reaching out to Pakistan with
an unprecedented diplomatic initiative last spring.

''I have never heard such an inspiring speech by any other prime
minister,'' gushed Vibhuti Kumar, 20, a science student who will be
voting for the first time. ''At a time we cannot trust our neighbor who
comes to us with a dagger under its arm, we need a leader who can bring
the country together and inspire people to fight.''

Others who heard the speech praised Mr. Vajpayee for exercising
restraint in the Kargil conflict and not further provoking Pakistan.
They also said he had set a positive and harmonious domestic tone for
the country, which has been plagued by religious violence ever since
independence.

In his 20-minute speech, Mr. Vajpayee vowed to sustained applause that
his government would ''never let terrorists win.'' He said India and
Pakistan ''need to build trust again,'' but questioned whether that was
possible when ''terrorists trained in Pakistan'' are attacking inside
India.

In the last two weeks, there has been a dramatic eruption of sabotage
attacks against military posts and personnel in Kashmir, where Islamic
rebels have been waging an armed insurgency against Indian troops for a
decade. At least 30 people have died in near-daily bombings and rocket
assaults, and Indian authorities say Pakistani-aided rebel groups are
seeking to disrupt the region in retaliation for the Kargil defeat.

Mr. Vajpayee also spoke briefly of economic and social issues,
describing his vision of India as a country with ''no hunger, no fear,
no poverty.'' He called for members of the untouchable caste to be
welcomed into society and for women to be allotted a certain percentage
of seats in state legislatures and Parliament.

But it was clear that party strategists had chosen to focus on the theme
of national security, in part because of the outpouring of patriotic
sentiment aroused across India in the wake of Kargil and in part because
it is a victory for which Mrs. Gandhi, the 52-year-old widow of former
Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, can take no credit.

''Kargil widened the gap between people's perception of Vajpayee and
Sonia,'' Arun Jetly, a BJP campaign committee member, said in an
interview last week. ''Vajpayee has come out to be a restrained, firm,
mature leader both in war and peace.'' In contrast, he contended,
Congress ''shot itself in the foot in Kargil'' by trying to criticize
the government over it while the nation was at war.

On Saturday, the normally shy and solemn-looking Mrs. Gandhi gave an
impressive performance in her first-ever press conference, held to
present her party's election manifesto. She insisted that ''the victory
in Kargil was that of our armed forces and not of our government,''
which she said had ''allowed intruders to occupy our territory while it
was sleeping.'' Indian forces were taken by surprise in April when
Pakistani-based fighters occupied numerous peaks in Kargil.

International Herald Tribune, August 16, 1999
-----
Aloha, He'Ping,
Om, Shalom, Salaam.
Em Hotep, Peace Be,
Omnia Bona Bonis,
All My Relations.
Adieu, Adios, Aloha.
Amen.
Roads End
Kris

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