-Caveat Lector-

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Today's Lesson From The Tatum Chronicles

by D.G. "Chip" Tatum


We flew into several villages on the Nicaragua/Honduras border to recon
for a later mission. I recorded actual village locations for cargo drops
by CH-47's scheduled later in April. Three of the villages were Rus Rus,
Waspam and Santa Anna.

Mr. [Oliver] North was pleased with the operations. He stated that Vice
President Bush appreciated the extra effort I was giving. General
Alverez told Mr. North of my ability to sneak into his airfield under
their radar. He asked North if I could instruct some of his security
team and pilots for future use. North declined stating that I was a
national secret, laughing. We landed at Santa Anna and met with Enrique
Bermudez and other Contra leaders. We were then taken to a processing
area of some sort. As we approached, there was a strong smell of jet
fuel and acetone. There were several tactical bladders, used for
carrying fuels, sitting around the area. Six large fuel pods were on the
ground but had the tops torched off. Inside there was fuel and ground-up
coca leaves.

Mr. North stated the following to the other passengers, "One more year
of this and we'll all retire." He then made a remark concerning Barry
Seal and Governor Clinton. "If we can keep those Arkansas hicks in line,
that is," referring to the loss of monies as determined the week prior
during their meeting in Costa Rica. I stood silently by the vat of
leaves, listening to the conversation. General Alverez had gone with the
Contra leader to discuss logistics. The other three - North, Rodriguez,
and Ami Nir - continued through the wooden building, inspecting the
cocaine. North continued, "...but he (Vice President Bush) is very
concerned about those missing monies. I think he's going to have Jeb
(Bush) arrange something out of Columbia," he told his comrades, not t
hinking twice of my presence. What Mr. North was referring to ended up
being the assassination of Barry Seal by members of the Medellin Cartel
in early 1986.

"How about 'Pineapple'?" Rodriguez asked. (Speaking of General Noriega.)


"Naw," North answered, "something's up there." Bush later insured
Noriega was indicted and imprisoned for drug trafficking.

I recalled the mysterious army officers remarks in Ojo de Agua, "Tell no
one. There's no one big enough in your chain of command." I just heard
North tell Rodriguez that the Vice President, the Governor of Arkansas
and the three of them are manufacturing cocaine. I flew them back to La
Cieba and I continued back to Tela in time for drinks downtown with my
crew and friends. We returned the following day to Palmerola. I went to
Ops and put a few notes on the back of the flight plan.
=====

Year 2000

Companies Scramble for Y2K Cash

Borrow, borrow, borrow, before the end

WASHINGTON - Major corporations, some foreign countries and even the
U.S. Treasury have begun to raise enormous amounts of cash just in case
something goes wrong somewhere as computer calendars flip over to 2000
from 1999 on Jan. 1.
These preparations already are increasing U.S. interest rates across the
board, analysts said.

The borrowers say they are rushing to sell many billions of dollars of
debt now, not because they fear a computer-glitch catastrophe but
because they fear that investors will worry such a catastrophe might
occur and therefore will not buy securities sold near the end of the
year.

There is no panic in the market, as there was a year ago after the
Russian government defaulted on part of its debt. Instead, the markets
are functioning well, but with some participants acting as if they
expect a panic later.

This flood of debt is lifting the interest rates the issuers have to pay
to attract buyers. That, in turn, raises rates on many other types of
business and consumer loans. Meanwhile, many lenders and investors are
pulling their money out of developing-country markets, where significant
year-end computer problems are considered much more likely.

''When it comes to raising money in the capital markets, it's prudent to
avoid the last few weeks of this year and the first few weeks of next
year,'' said Thomas Capo, senior vice president and treasurer of
automaker DaimlerChrylser AG, which raised $4.5 billion through a bond
issue last month. ''Why take what is probably a very small amount of
risk?''

''Corporations are striving to raise cash so they don't have to rely on
financial markets late in the year,'' said Mickey Levy, chief economist
at Bank of America in New York. ''It is across the spectrum'' in terms
of different types of securities and creditworthiness of the borrowers.

For example, GE Capital Corp., the financial services unit of General
Electric Co., said it had arranged special credit lines with its bankers
similar to a special borrowing facility the Federal Reserve System has
set up for commercial banks faced with unusual demand for loans from
their customers.

Sources said GE Capital's credit line is in the ''billions'' of dollars.


A spokeswoman, Mary Horne, would not provide details of the new loan
arrangement with GE Capital's bankers, but sources said it would provide
GE Capital - the world's largest issuer of short-term commercial debt -
with access to additional capital from Nov. 1 to April 7. The money will
be available only for extraordinary circumstances, such as GE Capital
being unable to sell any of the $8 billion to $10 billion worth of
short-term debt it normally rolls over on any given trading day.

Meanwhile, the Treasury Department announced last month that it wanted
to have about $80 billion in cash on hand at the end of December, about
twice the normal amount. A fourth of that is a consequence of a new law
directing Treasury to have $20 billion on hand to advance to the Nation
Credit Union Administration, the federal regulator of credit unions, if
such institutions themselves need cash at the end of the year.

The Treasury wants the other extra funds ''to provide for the
possibility that the timing of receipts and outlays do not follow
historical patterns,'' said Gary Gensler, undersecretary for domestic
finance. ''We do not anticipate any problems, but we believe it is
appropriate to be prepared.''

The Y2K - shorthand for Year 2000 - problem stems from the fact that
many older computers and software use only two digits for the year in
their calendars; when the number moves to ''00,'' it will be treated as
1900 rather than 2000. Older systems could fail to work, as would the
functions they control - say, providing electric power.

Federal regulators say virtually all U.S. banks, thrifts and credit
unions are ''Y2K compliant'' - ready for the new year.

European banks are also in good shape, as are institutions even in some
emerging countries, Fed officials say.

Nonetheless, some lenders and investors may fear that Y2K disruptions
could hurt borrowers' ability to repay their debt around the end of the
year. That possibility is likely to roil financial markets in December
and January and make it both more difficult and more costly to raise
money at that time.

These concerns have already disrupted some financial markets. In Japan,
few investors are willing to buy government bond futures contracts that
expire in December.

At the same time, some foreign money is leaving Mexico, and officials
there are concerned over whether adequate financing will be available
later this year because of Y2K fears. Federal Reserve officials
confirmed that their Mexican counterparts have sought assistance in
maintaining U.S. commercial bank lines of credit to Mexican banks for
the rest of the year.

The amount of foreign cash available to emerging markets is ''the lowest
I have ever seen it in 15 years of being involved these markets,'' said
one hedge fund manager, who asked not to be named.

One reason for the intense preparations is the experience of last year
after Russia's default, when for a time it became almost impossible to
issue new debt either in the United States or elsewhere. Investors,
suddenly reminded about the risk inherent in many investments, unloaded
all kinds of debt securities and flocked to the safest of all, newly
issued U.S. Treasuries.

Markets all over the world became highly ''illiquid'' - that is, sellers
frequently couldn't find buyers for many types of securities. Some
markets essentially ceased to function.

That episode ''showed the potential for illiquidity,'' said David Olsen,
who runs the corporate bond syndication desk at J.P. Morgan. ''It really
served to focus people's attention.''

So major corporations are leaving nothing to chance.

GE Capital must make sure it has cash lined up ''for scenarios A, B, C,
D, E and F,'' Ms. Horne said. ''Banks are the only source of guaranteed
liquidity given their access to the Fed.''

The telecommunications giant AT&T has made similar preparations; it
conducted two private placements totaling $5 billion in one-year debt in
July and August.

International Herald Tribune, September 3, 1999


Land of Mochtar Riady vs. East Timor

Pro-Jakarta Militias Declare War; Can UN Forces Be Far Behind?

Hillary: "Oh goody. Maybe this will get Waco out of the headlines."

THE chief of staff of anti-separatist forces in East Timor has
threatened a civil war and a "slaughter" of opponents if this week's
referendum has favoured independence from Indonesia.
Herminio da Silva da Costa, co-ordinator of 13 pro-Jakarta militias and
a senior member of their political wing, accused the United Nations
yesterday of bias in its organisation of Monday's poll. If the outcome
of the vote, due to be announced early next week, rejected the option of
autonomy within Indonesia and favoured complete separation, the result
would not be accepted, said Mr da Costa.

If a fresh poll was not then held, bloodshed would follow. He said: "The
pro-independence side would not deserve to live. I prefer to go to war
to slaughter all the pro-independence people." His threat came on a day
of high tension, which followed running battles on Wednesday outside the
UN compound in Dili, in which a man was hacked to death by
machete-wielding militiamen.

More violence flared yesterday. Portugal's Lusa news agency said
militias carried out attacks in the western town of Maliana, killing two
more East Timorese who had worked for the UN in Monday's vote. Another
local UN worker was killed on polling day in the town of Gleno.

In Dili, scores of residents terrified by a week of violence which has
claimed more than 10 lives, fled the capital on foot or by bus
yesterday. A military transport plane evacuated Indonesian army families
and 40 Indonesian journalists, targeted by repeated threats, after
delivering 500 reinforcements of armed riot police.

Indonesian journalists are seen as traitors or collaborators by the
respective factions, and three suffered gunshot wounds last week.
Foreigners have also been threatened. The only commercial outbound
flight yesterday was crammed with foreign journalists and election
observers. The BBC was attempting to charter a 70-seat aircraft to fly
most of its team and other foreign reporters to Bali today. Australia
has a rapid evacuation force, with a high-speed catamaran capable of
seating several hundred, on alert 300 miles away at Darwin.

International Red Cross officials said they were preparing sites across
the border in Indonesia's West Timor for a possible flood of refugees,
possibly as many as 20,000. Contingency plans are also being made for
refugees in East Timor itself for up to 50,000 people. Many fear more
trouble after the poll result is known. Most shops in Dili were closed
yesterday. Few people ventured out.

Ian Martin, head of the UN Mission to East Timor (Unamet), said: "We
have no possibility of protecting ourselves, other than the pressure we
can put upon the Indonesian authorities to fulfil their
responsibilities." Following massive international pressure on Jakarta
over the violence, Indonesian authorities said for the first time
yesterday that they would consider the deployment of a UN peacekeeping
force. Alexander Downer, Australia's Foreign Minister, said planning was
under way "for a UN security presence".

Unamet, which is due to oversee the transition to either autonomy or
independence, is approaching crisis, with its multinational unarmed
police force obliged to rely on its Indonesian counterparts who seem
unwilling or unable to maintain order. It was also challenged yesterday
by the United Front for East Timor Autonomy, an umbrella group opposing
separation, which presented a list of 200 complaints, mostly accusing
local UN polling staff of being pro-independence activists and
influencing voters.

The militia co-ordinator Mr da Costa, a member of the front, said that
anything below a 60 per cent majority for autonomy within Indonesia
would mean the UN had "cheated", although poll observers and the Jakarta
government have praised the UN's efforts and given the vote a clean bill
of health.

After a turnout of almost 99 per cent, most predictions are for an
overwhelming call to end more than 23 years of Indonesian rule, which
has never been recognised by the UN. Jakarta's intervention in the
former Portuguese colony has drawn international condemnation for
widespread human-rights abuses.

A big question mark now hangs over whether sections of the Indonesian
military - accused of creating and abetting the anti-separatist militias
- will provide them with heavy weapons in any future conflict. Mr da
Costa, a former soldier in the Portuguese colonial army, admitted that
his forces had enjoyed military support before May's agreement between
Indonesia, Portugal and the UN on the referendum. He said: "If there is
another conflict, I'm sure they will support us."

The London Telegraph, September 3, 1999


Gold Market

IMF Gold Sales May Take Place in "Off-market Transactions"

A book value of $46/oz. versus a market price of $254/oz.


The International Monetary Fund yesterday said it was considering
selling part of its gold reserves in so-called "off-market" transactions
instead of the open market.


However, the IMF emphasised it had not made any final decision on how to
dispose of up to 10m ounces of its gold reserves under the debt relief
initiative for highly indebted countries.


Thomas Dawson, IMF spokesman, said the issue was "under very active
consideration" and was expected to be resolved before the annual
meetings in September.


The IMF is reported to be close to completing a plan for central banks
to buy at least part of its gold reserves, in off-market transactions
which would minimise the impact on gold prices.


Profits from the gold sales would be held in a trust fund for debt
relief, according to Reuters, which would reduce concerns of the impact
on the depressed international gold market.


Pressure groups, gold-producing countries and the gold industry have
combined to condemn large-scale disposals of gold reserves on the open
market in recent months, drawing strong support from lawmakers in the US
Congress.


The IMF's plans to dispose of part of its gold reserves were undermined
by the Bank of England's sale of 25 tonnes in July, which pushed gold
prices to a 20-year low.


Under the debt relief plan agreed by the G7 group of leading industrial
nations, the IMF will contribute $2.3bn to the package for highly
indebted poor countries. The profits would come from the difference
between the book value of the IMF gold, at around $46 an ounce, and the
current market value at around $254 an ounce.


Gillian O'Connor adds: In London dealers waited for an actual deal
rather than yet another proposal. The afternoon fix was $254.20 per
ounce, in line with recent levels. The market has been assuming for
several weeks that the IMF gold sale will not take place.


Haruko Fukuda, chief executive of the World Gold Council, a lobby group
funded by several big gold mining companies, and one of the most vocal
opponents of the sale, said that in principle the council was supportive
of the IMF's alternative plan.


Rhona O'Connell of broker T. Hoare Cannacord said that it would be
important which central banks bought the gold from the IMF, whether they
were banks of countries likely to lend the metal into the market, and
how long the recycling period would be.

The Financial Times, September 3, 1999
-----
Aloha, He'Ping,
Om, Shalom, Salaam.
Em Hotep, Peace Be,
Omnia Bona Bonis,
All My Relations.
Adieu, Adios, Aloha.
Amen.
Roads End
Kris

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