-Caveat Lector- CIA Wary on N. Korea, Iran Missiles By ROBERT BURNS .c The Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) - North Korea is preparing to flight-test a ballistic missile ``at any time'' that could be developed into an intercontinental-range weapon capable of striking U.S. territory, the CIA says. A report released by the CIA on Thursday also said Iran probably will develop ICBMs over the next 15 years and that Iraq poses an additional - though somewhat more distant - ballistic missile threat. The report characterized the prospect of North Korea acquiring a long-range missile by 2015 as ``most likely,'' Iran's prospect was judged to be ``probable'' and Iraq was labeled a ``possible'' threat. These emerging missile forces ``potentially can kill tens of thousands, or even millions, of Americans,'' depending on their accuracy and whether they carry nuclear, chemical or biological warheads, it said. The United States has no way to shoot down long-range ballistic missiles, although the Pentagon is spending billions of dollars to develop anti-missile missiles to shield the United States against a limited attack. Countries developing ballistic missiles also are probably working on ``countermeasures'' that would let their missiles overcome U.S. defenses, the report said. Russia and China, which have developed numerous countermeasures, probably are willing to sell these technologies, it said. Russia has about 1,000 long-range missiles with about 4,500 nuclear warheads. China has about 20 missiles capable of reaching the United States. The CIA report said short-range ballistic missiles, such as Iran's Shahab-3 and North Korea's No Dong, pose an ``immediate, serious and growing threat to U.S. forces, interests and allies'' in the Middle East and Asia. Those missiles cannot reach U.S. soil. The report portrayed the threat from North Korea, Iran and Iraq as somewhat less immediate than did the bipartisan Rumsfeld Commission, which told Congress in July 1998 that North Korea and Iran - in as little as five years - could field a missile capable of striking U.S. territory. The Rumsfeld Commission also concluded that the CIA's ability to provide timely and accurate estimates of ballistic missile threats to the United States is eroding, and that warning times are being reduced. A senior U.S. intelligence official said Thursday the CIA has changed the way it assesses missile threats. The CIA used to wait until a country deployed a missile once before declaring it a threat. Now it will declare a threat as soon as a country successfully test-launches a missile, the official said. He discussed the new report on condition he not be identified. He said intelligence analysts expect North Korea to flight-test its Taepo Dong 2 missile this year unless the North Koreans heed U.S. warnings against such a test. The issue is high on the agenda U.S.-North Korea talks opened Tuesday in Berlin. The CIA believes the Taepo Dong 2 is designed to carry a nuclear weapon, although it may be tested initially as an unarmed space launch vehicle. It is believed capable of reaching Hawaii or Alaska. It is not known whether North Korea has a nuclear weapon, nor whether the North Koreans have developed a missile re-entry vehicle capable of surviving the flight - exiting the atmosphere and then coming back in. Russia has long posed a major nuclear threat to the United States, although Washington and Moscow are attempting to implement a second Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty to greatly reduce their arsenals. Defense Secretary William Cohen is traveling to Moscow next week to discuss prospects for cutting nuclear weapons even further, and to discuss future missile defenses. ``The Russian threat, although significantly reduced, will continue to be the most robust and lethal, considerably more so than that posed by China, and orders of magnitude more than that potentially posed by other nations,'' the CIA report said. DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion and informational exchange list. Proselyzting propagandic screeds are not allowed. Substance�not soapboxing! These are sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory', with its many half-truths, misdirections and outright frauds is used politically by different groups with major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought. That being said, CTRL gives no endorsement to the validity of posts, and always suggests to readers; be wary of what you read. 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