-Caveat Lector-
My soldiers listen wide-eyed when my senior NCO's tell stories about these
times as if they were fairy tales. Men with over 15 years in the Army are
saying "You used to be able to do your job; the Army used to be fun." You'd
think that given the experience and wisdom of these men, someone higher up
would listen.
What happened to cause the great cultural and philosophical shift in our
Army? Some have suggested a lack of focus for our Army in the post-Cold War
world. Others blame shrinking defense budgets and increasing deployments
around the globe. I believe our leadership would understand why if someone
with a higher rank than I currently hold truly examined how these
macro-issues translate to a micro scale, (i.e. junior officer level). We
are the ones who see how policies made at the highest level affect our
soldiers first hand, yet no one will take our opinions and recommendations
seriously. We were taught to use our minds at our respective academies and
universities, yet we are forced to allow our creativity to go dormant once
we pin our bars on. There is a wealth of valuable ideas waiting to emerge
from our ranks, but this resource is left untapped. The answer does not lie
in the creation of new systems or processes; senior leaders just need to
listen.
I'm told that I need not worry about the future. Some nifty computer
screens they are going to put in our vehicles, as well as Robo-Soldier
outfits for our infantrymen will solve all of our problems. Even after
field testing, the fact that this equipment may or may not do what it is
supposed to do is beside the point. Technology is our future, and we are
going to kill the enemy with a preponderance of information flowing
digitally across the battlefield. The Army is convinced of this, but is
going to take a lot more than some self-congratulating articles and press
releases to convince the rest of us.
Well, maybe all that could just be written off as whining from an officer
who doesn't know anything in big picture. I'm sure the thought of "why
don't you stay around and do something about it instead of complaining" has
crossed the minds of more than one reader. My theory is that many officers
are mustering what little independent thought they have left and deciding
that the Army in its current state cannot change from within. There
currently exists a culture of like-mindedness and many of us just do not
fit the mold, therefore we cannot succeed unless we conform. In order to
reach any rank where we might be able to be listened to, we would have had
to already discarded our ideas and openly embraced conventional Army
wisdom. In essence, embrace the policies we intended to change. Maybe the
answer is exactly what the Army has been telling us; keep our mouths shut,
do as we're told, and drive on with the mission. Yeah, I think we'll do
that, but only as long as we have to.
=====================================================
ARTICLE 4
~~~~~~~~~~~
MANPOWER
~~~~~~~~~~~
SUMMARY: Here's a good accompaniment to Hack's piece for this week.
********************************************
By Primo (Not the author's real name)
There are a lot of good arguments why 'serving the Nation' in some way for
some period of time would be a good thing.
Part of the discussion is the military manpower issue. Since the best
debate is an informed one, this note discusses the current Army manpower
status.
The Army projects accession shortfalls which may range from 8,000 (1999) to
as many as 20,000 (2000). In order to understand how these shortfalls can
be fixed, it's useful to understand how we got where we are.
As I wander the C and D ring halls sitting in briefings, four factors stand
out:
1. Shifting population trends
2. Economy
3. 70s Hollow Army
4. Drawdown
*****************************************
SHIFTING POPULATION TRENDS
There are about 25M 18-24 y/o kids in the US. This will grow to about 30M
in 2025. It is, and will increasingly be, a racially diverse group ...
somewhere between 2025 and 2050, most will be nonwhite. The fastest
growing group will be Hispanics (13 to 22%).
We are also seeing rapid health and education shifts:
1. Kids are increasingly underfit and overfat. 90% get bussed to school;
75% do not have regular gym; they are increasingly eating high-sugar soda
and high-grease fast food diets (which explains the increases in asthma and
type 2 diabetes)(schools are entering into multi-million dollar exclusive
contracts to push this junk in the schools). Schools spend significant
resources on sports entertainment for the community (football, basketball,
etc.), but little on the average kid. Military across the world are seeing
decreases in entry fitness and increases in pre-training requirements and
training-related injuries (especially among overweight, smokers, and females).
2. Kids are increasingly on their own. They have 75% less adult contact
than we did. Dual-income families and single-parent families mean we are a
Nation of latch-key kids. Large centralized schools mean less contact and
more opportunity for subgroups (both good and bad).
3. High School attendance is shifting. More kids are getting home schooled
and more are getting GEDs (although there are not standard definitions of
what these categories are). Colleges are increasingly accepting these
degrees as part of an overall entrance selection battery.
4. About 60-70% of kids go on to VOTEC, community college, technical
school, or college. This will climb to 80+% in the future. About 35-50%
will fail or dropout for a variety of reasons. High school leaders get
scored on their admission rates, so they see the Army recruiters
differently than we do.
5. About 1,400 HS are 'antimilitary' (banning recruiters on campus) while
about 1,200-2,000 are pro-military (have or are requesting Junior
ROTC)(JROTC will expand from 1,200 to 1,600 in the near future). There are
about 15,000 high schools.
6. Although parents are positive about the military, kids increasingly do
not see the military as a career option (although kids may no longer think
in terms of careers).
Finally, the veteran population is aging and dying. By 2010, there will be
20M left (from a high of 57M) who are mostly over 65. This means fewer
veteran role models, leaders, and influencers with access to kids. It will
also have significant impact on other areas, but that's another note.
*****************************************
SIDEBAR
The key to understanding manpower issues is understanding the bell curve.
Take a piece of paper. Draw a horizontal line. Draw a half-circle on top of
it. Draw a drooping line from the half circle's edges down to the line on
either side.
You now have a 'admiral's hat' or a sort of wide bell image.
Draw a vertical line through the middle of the half circle.
What you're looking at is how many things are distributed in the
population. Relatively few at either end. Bunch of folks in the middle.
There will be a test.
***************************************
ECONOMY
We have a very strong economy where the unemployment rate is below the
theoretical minimum. This economic pressure forces employers and schools to
increase their incentives (pay, benefits, scholarships, and bonuses) to
attract folks.
Although Army incentives are good, they are not competitive. Army pay is
about 13% low.
Future labor projections state this situation will get worse (there will be
more jobs than people). Therefore, we have to plan for the worst case
scenario.
Remember the bell curve? If talent is unequally distributed, then the
further you go to the right, then the relatively fewer there are .....
which drives pay demands to remain competitive.
***************************************
HOLLOW ARMY.
Today's senior leaders 'grew up' during the 70s Hollow Army. It was a bad
time. Low morale, drug problems, racial tension, etc.
The Army fought its way out of that situation (they believe) by setting
high entry standards (Armed Forces Qualification Test)(AFQT)(top 50%) and
education (High School Degree).
This has significantly changed the Army .... it is now a highly educated
group compared to the 70s.
There are no free lunches, however, since sliding the entry bar to the
right decreases the available population (bell curve).
The screening system knocks out:
- Folks who can't pass the physical (about 15%)
- Low AFQT (50%)
- Most Non high school graduates (GED, homeschool, etc.)
- Folks with legal, drug, or extremist problems
(Folks already college, in the military, etc. are excluded)
Which means that less than 12% of the population 'qualifies' for the military.
Remember, the military consists of 180-240 kinds of jobs (called MOS)
ranging from cook, truck driver, and tent repairperson to computer
programmer and electronics repair.
Most importantly, 'smart' folks do not necessarily do well at all jobs. Be
careful what you wish for .... you can end up with a very smart, highly
educated person who is bored and unhappy. Somebody has to do the hard work.
And, it becomes a prioritization issue. Given 8% of the population as
'smart folks,' do you want that resource cooking beans or planning the
logistical support system? Or, from the other side of the equation, how
many 'smart folks' are going to sign up for tent repair when other
businesses are offering them management positions?
Therefore, the biggest keys to the manpower situation is establishing
realistic and useful entry standards.
The current standards are overly restrictive and not necessarily valid.
**************************************
THE DRAWDOWN
Congress dictates manpower ceilings to the military. The Army (to a degree)
decides how and where to allocate those numbers.
When Congress decreed the post-Cold War cuts, the Army took the cuts in the
fighting forces, moving from 18 divisions to 10.
As part of the almost overnight execution, the Army also decided to
conserve its vested manpower and take short-term cuts in:
-- recruiting advertising
-- recruiters
-- new recruits
-- recruiting stations
-- recruiting research
-- new recruit training resources
These decisions impact the new accessions business today because they cut
infrastructure that is difficult and slow to rebuild.
In addition, the Army used this opportunity to cut anyone with any problems
(why keep anything but the best when you have to lose folks?). These
'perfect' policies continue with modification today and are a major reason
behind high unit attrition numbers.
The problem with 'perfect' is that something called 'life' interferes. Have
you ever made a mistake? Had a bad year? So, basically, anyone who gains
weight, flunks the PT test,
All this is easy to describe, but it is a very difficult balancing act to
execute. It is a zero sum game ... every instructor you add to the training
system means an NCO is not in a unit. I'm glad my desk is not on the E-ring.
**************************************
The executive summary is that:
--we have an adequate supply of 18-24 year-old folks --who are often
deselected by outdated entry standards and
--who are not responding to obsolete and uncompetitive recruiting programs
(options, pay, benefits, incentives) that have
--insufficient recruiters, stations, and trainers to handle them while
--37% of soldiers fail to complete their first term due to decreasing entry
fitness, invalid training, and 'perfect' personnel policies.
The senior executive summary is:
We sign up 2 for every one who finishes. Or almost twice as many as we need.
**************************************
Recruiting, of course, is only part of the manpower picture. The Army's big
levers are:
-- accessions (gains, recruits, reenlistments, etc.)
AND
-- losses (attrition, retirement, etc.)
Despite the plaintive letters, the Army meets or exceeds its reenlistment
quotas (on average)(certain jobs may vary). Faced with shortages, the Army
can simply raise reenlistment incentives (and face higher payroll costs).
This does not mean there are not morale problems about many Quality of Life
issues (pay, medical benefits, housing, etc.).
*************************************
Fixing all this is difficult, but doable. But, fixes needs to be another note.
Time for a beer! Of course, beer will cause you to gain weight and probably
get into trouble, which will mean you can't be a good soldier, so .....
=====================================================
~~> more articles in Part B ~~>
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