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Buchanan's 3rd-Party Chances Worry Republicans, Democrats
By Thomas B. Edsall
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, September 14, 1999; Page A12

Republicans and Democrats are casting wary looks at Patrick J. Buchanan as
he considers running for president on the Reform Party ticket, with the GOP
worried that he could rob it of its religious-right base and Democrats
concerned that Buchanan could become the 2000 counterpart to George C.
Wallace, the Alabama governor who broke the partisan loyalties of
working-class whites.

Republicans see Buchanan costing their nominee three to four percentage
points, enough to give Democrats the White House for another four years in
the event of a close contest.

Democrats are less worried, but are gearing up to block a drive by Buchanan
to appeal to discontented union workers, angry at trade policies seen as
shifting well-paying industrial jobs overseas and south of the border to
Mexico.

At the same time, conservative Republicans seeking the presidential
nomination are already jockeying to capitalize on Buchanan's expected
departure from the field. Both Gary Bauer and Steve Forbes are positioning
themselves to be the legitimate heirs to the Buchanan vote and to claim the
conservative mantle in the battle against the frontrunner, Texas Gov. George
W. Bush.

If in fact Buchanan bolts the GOP, as he has been increasingly indicating,
and seeks the Reform Party nomination, he said he will run as a protector of
the right to life, an opponent of free-trade policies and a tough-minded
advocate of American sovereignty around the world.

In early Republican polls and straw ballots, Buchanan has done poorly, and
he argues that the GOP establishment has sold out its conservative base to
take moderate stands on abortion, to join with the Clinton administration to
back free trade and such military actions as the fight over Kosovo.

Breaking with the Republican Party would be "a tremendous breach, there is
no doubt about it," Buchanan said yesterday on NBC's "Today" show. "But I
think you've got to put the country above the party." He attacked the
Democrats and Republicans: "We've got a one-party system in Washington
masquerading as a two-party system."

Fred Steeper, pollster for Bush, contended that "Bush's margin [in the
general election] will be large enough to survive Buchanan." In addition,
Steeper argued, that "to the extent that Buchanan emphasizes economic
nationalism [as opposed to abortion and other social issues], that will draw
voters away from [Vice President] Gore more than Bush, from union groups in
the 'old' economy."

Former Republican National Committee chairman Richard Bond said that if
Buchanan wins the Reform Party nomination--a victory that Bond and others
believe will be tough to get--"he will be a royal pain in the butt. The
media intelligentsia loves this guy."

Buchanan's initial reception among Reform Party activists has been mixed.

The party's 1996 vice presidential candidate, Pat Choate, indicated that he
would be very supportive of Buchanan, and told CNN that Buchanan could get
25 percent of the total vote on Nov. 7, 2000.

Earlier this summer, however, the party was taken over by forces loyal to
Minnesota Gov. Jesse Ventura, who seems likely to try to prevent Buchanan
from getting the Reform Party nomination--and the $12.6 million in federal
money the party is due.

"What appears to be happening is what happens in the worst of politics: Mr.
Buchanan sees this pot of money and is trying to get to it. But he brings a
set of political agendas that the Reform Party has not, at least in the
past, stood for," said Ventura spokesman John Wodele said, referring to
Buchanan's social conservatism.

Ventura is "intrigued" by the possibility of a bid by real estate-gambling
magnate Donald Trump, Wodele said. "Trump doesn't bring a marriage from
another party. He is a business person. He appears to be receptive to free
trade rather than a protectionist point of view. He would not have the
dependency on PACs and other money restraints that other candidates bring to
the election process."

In the meantime, the battle for Buchanan's Republican constituency has begun
in earnest. "If Buchanan goes" and the GOP "nominates a moderate candidate
[Bush] . . . then there is a potential mass exodus," warned Forbes spokesman
Greg Mueller, who said his candidate could stem such an exodus.

"Pat and every conservative should stay and be part of the fight," Bauer
said. "I intend to fight to make it a Reagan party now and in the future."

Geoff Garin, a Democratic pollster who conducts surveys for the AFL-CIO and
some individual unions, contended that a Buchanan bid would be most damaging
to the GOP and to Bush, should he win the nomination. "Bush would have a lot
less flexibility on trying to run to the center on abortion," he said.

While Buchanan could appeal to labor Democrats, Garin said, "he has taken
enough stands on other things that are repugnant that it makes it much
easier to bring those voters back home."


Staff writer Terry M. Neal and assistant polling director Claudia Deane
contributed to this report.


� Copyright 1999 The Washington Post Company
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPcap/1999-09/14/020r-091499-idx.html

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If "pro" is the opposite of "con," what's the opposite of "progress"?

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