-Caveat Lector- >From www.security-policy.org/papers/1999/99-D103.html > Publications of the Center for Security Policy > No. 99-D 103 > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------ > DECISION BRIEF > 16 September 1999 > > > Clinton as the Anti-Reagan: Appeasement of North Korea Would 'End the Cold War' > by Capitulation, Not Roll-Back > > (Washington, D.C.): Amidst the many, pathetic explanations served up by Clinton > Administration spokesmen to rationalize, if not explain, its latest act of > appeasement toward North Korea, perhaps the most telling was an unidentified > U.S. official's assertion reported in today's Washington Times that "changing, > reforming or undermining the North Korean regime would be impossible, take too > long or risk war." Therefore, to end what another official called "the last > vestige of the Cold War," the Administration proposes to implement a "roadmap" > of successive U.S. concessions leading towards normalized relations with an > abidingly unreformed, malevolent Pyongyang. Had Ronald Reagan adopted a similar > defeatist attitude toward the Evil Empire, it is a safe bet that the Cold War > would have ended far less satisfactorily. > > The first step in that roadmap was unveiled earlier this week with the > announcement that another "interim agreement" had been reached with the > Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DRPK). Pursuant to this verbal agreement, > the U.S. would ease trade restrictions and open the door for certain financial > and investment flows, and eventually full-fledged diplomatic relations. All > these benefits would begin to be available to Pyongyang based on what State > Department spokesman James Rubin labels an "understanding" that the DPRK "will > refrain from testing long-range missile tests while negotiations on improving > relations continue. So it is an interim situation....There will be an interim > freeze...." > > It is more than a little disturbing that Rubin emphasized that Ambassador > Charles Kartman was able to decipher this "understanding" because of his > intimate knowledge of "the difficult nuances in talking to the North Koreans." > This suggests that someone not versed in such "nuances" might not be able to > understand that the DPRK has actually committed itself even to the modest step > of not launching on an "interim" basis the Taepo Dong II missile currently > sitting on a pad, apparently ready to go. > > Worse yet, Amb. Kartman may simply be the most recent American envoy to fall for > a North Korean negotiating strategy that is less nuanced than nefarious. As one > scholar of the subject, former Defense Department official Chuck Downs, put it > in Over the Line: North Korea's Negotiating Strategy -- an insightful review of > the dismal record of Western negotiations with the North over the past forty > years: > > North Korea...used the four-way talks [between the U.S., South Korea, China and > the DPRK] the same way it had used every previous negotiation: to extract > concessions that filled gaps in its economic performance, to provide a pretext > for domestic political purges and increased political oppression, and to build > up its military capabilities. > > This was the same, tested strategy that North Korea had pursued time and time > again. It used this strategy to take territory during the armistice talks, to > build up its military in defiance of armistice constraints, to gain > international recognition through terrorist attacks, to intervene in South > Korea's politics while promoting dialogue, to win concessions by denying > inspections, and, in this most recent instance, to perfect its weaponry while it > pursued peace talks. For the North Koreans...the talks were merely the next step > in its strategy of negotiating for survival.(1) > > > > Failed Framework Agreement > > > > Just how effective this approach is for the DPRK can be seen in the Clinton > Administration's insistence that the Agreed Framework of 1994 has served its > declared purpose of preventing the North from pursuing its nuclear program. This > is perhaps understandable, given the prestige and over half-billion dollars in > aid -- making North Korea the largest U.S. foreign assistance recipient in Asia > -- that the Administration has sunk in Pyongyang since 1995. > > Jamie Rubin has even gone so far as to say that, but for the '94 accord "there > would have been many tens of nuclear weapons that North Korea could have > produced by now." There is nothing wrong with such assertions except that they > are unproven, unprovable and highly unlikely to be correct. > > The Agreed Framework never had a comprehensive verification and inspection > mechanism; neither did it require the elimination of the DPRK's nuclear complex, > program or extant weaponized material. The North long ago learned that for the > United States agreement is everything; abundant evidence of non-compliance -- > even egregious violations -- matter not at all. It also knows that weapons of > mass destruction represent the only way to assure victory over South Korea and > its American and UN allies. They are also a means to secure the North's other > key goals of international recognition outside of the peninsula, enhanced > political and economic support from the United States and a modicum of internal > regime legitimation. > > The truth, therefore, is that Kim Jong-Il's regime will never eliminate its > nuclear weapons program -- the fruit of a 30 year effort -- until either it > falls from power or is forced to do so by a resolute West led by the United > States. Neither will it cease export sales of weapons, even if offered cash > offsets, because such deals are the currency of its diplomatic strategy with > countries from Asia to the Middle East. > > U.S. officials misrepresent these realities at our national peril. But, in a > forward to Over the Line, former CIA operative and U.S. Ambassador to both South > Korea and China James Lilley warns: > > > > American diplomats...persuade the American people to support policy outcomes > that are little more than concoctions of how things should work out with the > North Koreans....The North Koreans are happy to play this game -- they are more > than willing to subscribe to deception if it means they benefit -- so they > temper or escalate their actions to lend credence to misconceptions that serve > their purposes. > > > > Enter Secretary Perry > > > > At the moment, the chief promoter of such wishful thinking and cat's-paw for the > North Koreans' strategems is former Defense Secretary William Perry, who has > over the past two days presented to Congress a still-classified report laying > out the roadmap for normalized relations with Pyongyang. Ominously, an > administration spokesman says the report marks a path future administrations > could follow "with steadiness and persistence even in the face of provocations" > -- in other words, a program of appeasement, no matter what the North does. > > Reality Check > > Even if one believes that North Korea will not flight test its Taepo Dong II > missile -- or sell it to Pakistan or Iran to test launch for it, the DPRK is > hardly the kind of state with whom the U.S. can safely cultivate friendly > relations. It remains in a state of war with South Korea, kept at bay over the > past 47 year primarily by the armed presence of nearly 40,000 U.S. troops. North > Korea remains on the U.S. State Department list of state sponsor's of terrorism > and continues to equip itself with advanced weapons from Russia and China, both > of whom are publically committed to fomenting whatever difficulty they can with > a view to unseating the U.S. from its status as the sole-superpower. North Korea > manufactures nuclear, biological and chemical weapons (the latter being > especially well-integrated into their force structure and war-planning) and the > systems necessary for their delivery. Pyongyang sells all of these to countries > hostile to the United States and its interests including Iran, Syria and Iraq. > > In fact, the unclassified version of the CIA's latest National Intelligence > Estimate (NIE), Foreign Ballistic Missile Development and the Ballistic Missile > Threat to the United States through 2015, cites North Korea as one of leading > engines of missile advances around the world. "The proliferation of medium-range > ballistic missiles (MRBMs) -- driven primarily by North Korean No Dong sales -- > has created an immediate, serious, and growing threat to US forces, interest and > allies, and has significantly altered the strategic balances in the Middle East > and Asia." > > North Korea currently has missiles capable of reaching all U.S. forces and > allies in East Asia, as well as Israel, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. And last > August, it surprised everyone by firing a three-stage rocket over Japan -- a > capability the CIA had only months before dismissed as between two and five > years away. The CIA now estimates that, after Russia and China, North Korea is > the next most likely to develop ICBMs capable of reaching the United States. > > The Bottom Line > > The time has come for a Reaganesque alternative to the path of appeasement of > North Korea to which President Clinton and Secretary Perry would commit the > United States under both present and future administrations. Earlier this year, > House International Relations Committee Chairman Ben Gilman outlined the basic > principles of such a policy based on: "conditional reciprocity; strengthened > conventional deterrence and theater missile defense" including the creation of a > Northeast Asian Defense Organization including at least Japan and South Korea > and, most importantly, "a willingness to undertake tough measures in the name of > national security." > > The Clinton-Perry proposal for "peace for our time" on the Korean Peninsula > should be rejected by Congress in favor of an approach that would "end the Cold > War" there on terms conducive to a genuine and durable peace, i.e., one aimed at > rolling back and changing the North Korean regime. > > As Fred Ikl�, former Undersecretary of Defense, has pointed out in an important > op.ed. article in the Wall Street Journal in October 1998, it is past time for > the U.S. to stop repurchasing 45 years of North Korea's broken promises, while > obscuring the violations and loopholes in the Framework and undermining our > allies' confidence. Otherwise "the day may come when continuing U.S. appeasement > will have nullified the deterrent that has prevented a second Korean War for 45 > years." > > Congress should also make clear that the Administration has no business > considering diplomatic recognition at the consular or embassy levels with what > is commonly referred to as the "World's last Stalinist regime" while denying the > people of a democratic Taiwan (Republic of China) such status. Taiwan is, like > the DPRK, a nation of 21 million. In virtually every other respect it is > different: For fifty-years it has been an ally and friend of the United States. > In recent years, the ROC has become a vibrant democracy with perhaps the freest > people in Asia, and our 14th largest trading partner. Particularly relevant is > the fact that Taiwan voluntarily ceased its nuclear weapons program over a > decade ago at the United States' urging. Recognition of North Korea under > present circumstances -- combined with the sorry U.S. response to Beijing's > recent threats to Taiwan -- seem likely to prompt the ROC to reconsider its > decision to remain a non-nuclear state, something an American administration so > concerned about preventing nuclear proliferation would surely want to avoid. > > - 30 - > > 1. The DPRK learned these techniques from the masters: the Communist Chinese. As > Downs notes: "North Korea has made a science out of the Chinese notion that > crisis has two attributes: danger and opportunity." Pyongyang learned during the > Korean War that the Chinese policy of brinksmanship policy can effectively > offset the United States' objective strategic advantages because there are > political and public-opinion constraints on the Americans' willingness to > escalate beyond a certain level (e.g., preemptive strikes on North Korean > nuclear sites, as was so successfully done by Israel against Iraq in 1981). > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------ > > NOTE: The Center's publications are intended to invigorate and enrich the debate > on foreign policy and defense issues. The views expressed do not necessarily > reflect those of all members of the Center's Board of Advisors. > > Top of Page� 1988-1999, Center for Security Policy ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ >From www.kcna.co.jp Korean Central News Agency (N Korean) > DPRK's efforts for building powerful nation supported > > Pyongyang, September 16 (KCNA) -- The DPRK whose people advance, believing > in their own strength in any adversity, is sure to become a powerful country, > said the secretary general of the Italian Institute of International Relations, > Giancarlo Elia Valori, who visited the DPRK. He noted that the Korean people > are replete with high enthusiasm to fully discharge their noble mission on > behalf of the times and revolution with a beautiful dream and sure confidence in > the future of the country. It is the indomitable spirit and unshakable will > of the Korean people to turn the country into a powerful socialist country by > their own efforts at any cost although their way is thorny, he said, adding: > The Korean people have finished the "arduous march" and secured a springboard > from which to make a turn for the prosperity and development of the country by > conducting the forced march with confidence and will. He stressed that the > 21st century would be a new century of hope and glory in which the DPRK will > brilliantly shine all over the world as a powerful nation under the great > politics and wise leadership of Kim Jong Il. and for those interested in a more first-hand account of who and what is being appeased, the following is a "book" in several chapters (shown below), the preface to the English version is provided at the end. However, just to give some of the flavour of the book, this is what Kim Jong Il is to the author (from Chapter IX A Paragon of Greatness): > Section 1 A Great Common Man > > If we are to write about Leader Kim Jong Il as a man, we must begin with > the fact that he is a �ggreat common man.�h > In short, a common man is an > ordinary man without privilege. Therefore, a leader with the popular > characteristics of common people is literally a common man, or a man who > embodies the character of the working man without any authority or privilege. In > other words, he is a man of humility, naivete and integrity. @ http://www.kcna.co.jp/works/work.htm > KIM JONG IL > The Lodestar of 21st Century > > [CONTENTS] > > �Preface > Preface to the English Edition > > �Chapter I The Son of the Nation > > �Chapter II A Master of Thought and Theory > > �Chapter III The Leader of the Workers�f Party of Korea > > �Chapter IV A Paragon of Present-Day STATESMAN > > �Chapter V The General Leader of Socialist Construction > > �Chapter VI The Supreme Commander of the Korean People's Army > > �Chapter VII The Savior Star of the Nation > > �Chapter VIII The Helmsman of the Cause of Making the World Independent > > �Chapter IX A Paragon of Greatness > Prefce to the English edition > > The actual situation in the world is such that, with the 21st century just > around the corner, many peoples and countries are at a loss with regard to how > they should cope with the complex situations they confront in the international > situation and what course they should take. The Korean people have pursued > their course unflinchingly under the leadership of President Kim Il Sung and > Leader Kim Jong Il. During the past half century, the world has clearly > recognized an outstanding political situation in Juche Korea in the East and > noted the excellent Juche-oriented politics and immortal exploits of President > Kim Il Sung and Leader Kim Jong Il. However, the situation in Europe and > America is such that the realities of Juche Korea are not known correctly and > many people do not have a correct understanding or appraisal of the Korean > nation and her leaders. Particularly, the relationships between the leader and > the popular masses are reported in a distorted way. The Korean people > consider it their greatest happiness and joy to have had two great men as their > leaders, and feel praise for them. However, in Western countries this is > considered something "extremely strange", and this kind of evaluation is > widespread. Is this really true? People desire to know the reality and truth of > Korea. After the collapse of socialism in a number of countries in recent > years and at the historic turn of the 20th century, the Korean people, united > under the leadership of Leader Kim Jong Il, are marching along the path of > socialism, the road of Juche. It was precisely at this time that a book about > Leader Kim Jong Il's thought, theory and guidance with his personal traits and > his human image, on the basis of tremendous amounts of materials, including some > unpublished ones, has been published. The people of Korea will celebrate > with great pleasure the 70th anniversary of the founding of the "Down-with > Imperialism Union" (T.D.) on October 17, this year and warmly congratulate > Leader Kim Jong Il, a master of thoughts and theories, a genius of guidance and > a benevolent teacher with high virtues on his 55th birthday on February 16, next > year. At this very important juncture in the accomplishment of Juche > cause, I made up my mind to publish this book entitled "Kim Jong Il, the > Lodestar of the 21st Century," responding to the ardent desire of the > progressive people of the world who want to know his greatness. Convinced > that an early publication of the English edition of this book would have > contributed toward dispelling and resolving various doubts and slanders about > the Korean people and their leader, and would have helped people in the world > deepen their understanding, I asked for the cooperation of qualified > specialists. It is my earnest wish that this book would be read by many > people in Western countries to further deepen their understanding of the Korean > people who are marching along the path of independence under the leadership of > Leader Kim Jong Il and that the Korean people will further strengthen the > principles of independence, peace and friendship with the peoples of the world. > > July 1999 > > Korea News Service A<>E<>R ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ The only real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new landscapes but in having new eyes. -Marcel Proust + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + "Believe nothing, no matter where you read it, or who said it, no matter if I have said it, unless it agrees with your own reason and your common sense." --Buddha + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + A merely fallen enemy may rise again, but the reconciled one is truly vanquished. -Johann Christoph Schiller, German Writer (1759-1805) + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly. -Bertrand Russell + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + "Everyone has the right...to seek, receive and impart information and ideas through any media and regardless of frontiers." Universal Declaration of Human Rights + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + "Always do sober what you said you'd do drunk. That will teach you to keep your mouth shut." --- Ernest Hemingway + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + Forwarded as information only; no endorsement to be presumed + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. section 107, this material is distributed without charge or profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving this type of information for non-profit research and educational purposes only. DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion and informational exchange list. Proselyzting propagandic screeds are not allowed. Substance�not soapboxing! 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