-Caveat Lector-
Source: Cornell University (http://www.news.cornell.edu)
Date: Posted 9/22/99
A.D. 2100: Cornell Study Warns Of A Miserable Life On Overcrowded Earth If
Population And Resources Are Not Controlled
ITHACA, N.Y. -- One hundred years from now, democratically determined
population-control practices and sound resource-management policies could
have the planet's 2 billion people thriving in harmony with the environment.
Lacking these approaches, a new Cornell University study suggests, 12 billon
miserable humans will suffer a difficult life on Earth by the year 2100.
"Of course, reducing population and using resources wisely will be a
challenging task in the coming decades," says David Pimentel, lead author of
the report titled "Will Limits of the Earth's Resources Control Human
Numbers?" in the first issue of the journal Environment, Development and
Sustainability.
"It will be much more difficult," Pimentel says, "to survive in a world
without voluntary controls on population growth and ever diminishing supplies
of the Earth's resources."
Even at a reduced world population of 2 billion in A.D. 2100, life for the
average Earth dweller will not be as luxurious as it is for many Americans
today. But the lifestyle won't be as wasteful of resources, either, the
Cornell ecologist predicts. Some observers are seeing early signs that nature
is taking a hand at reducing human populations through malnutrition and
disease. According to the report, global climate change is beginning to
contribute to the food and disease problems.
"With a democratically determined population policy that respects basic
individual rights, with sound resource-use policies, plus the support of
science and technology to enhance energy supplies and protect the integrity
of the environment," the report concludes, "an optimum population of 2
billion for the Earth can be achieved."
Then the fortunate 2 billion will be free from poverty and starvation, living
in an environment capable of sustaining human life with dignity, the report
suggests, adding a cautionary note:
"We must avoid letting human numbers continue to increase and surpass the
limit of Earth's natural resources and forcing natural forces to control our
number by disease, malnutrition and violent conflicts over resources," the
report says.
Among the key points in the report:
-- The world population is projected to double in about 50 years.
-- Even if a worldwide limit of 2.1 children per couple were adopted
tomorrow, Earth's human population would continue to increase before
stabilizing at around 12 billion in more than 60 years. The major reason for
continued growth is "population momentum," due to the predominantly young age
structure of the world population.
-- The U.S. population has doubled during the past 60 years to 270 million
and, at the current growth rate, is projected to double again, to 540
million, in the next 75 years. Each year our nation adds 3 million people
(including legal immigrants) to its population, plus an estimated 400,000
illegal immigrants.
-- Increasing U.S. and global population will place restrictions on certain
freedoms: freedom to travel and commute to work quickly and efficiently,
freedom to visit and enjoy natural areas, freedom to select desired foods and
freedom to be effectively represented by government
-- Today, more than 3 billion people suffer from malnutrition, the largest
number and proportion of the world population in history, according to the
World Health Organization. Malnutrition increases the susceptibility to
diseases such as diarrhea and malaria.
-- One reason for the increase in malnutrition is that production of grains
per capita has been declining since 1983. Grains provide 80 percent to 90
percent of the world's food. Each additional human further reduces available
food per capita.
-- The reasons for this per capita decrease in food production are a 20
percent decline in cropland per capita, a 15 percent decrease in water for
irrigation and a 23 percent drop in the use of fertilizers.
-- Biotechnology and other technologies apparently have not been implemented
fast enough to prevent declines in per capita food production during the past
17 years.
-- Considering the resources likely to be available in A.D. 2100, the optimal
world population would be about 2 billion, with a standard of living about
half that of the United States in the 1990s, or at the standard experienced
by the average European.
The study was funded by Cornell University. In addition to Pimentel, authors
of the Environment, Development and Sustainability report include Owen
Bailey, Paul Kim, Elizabeth Mullaney, Joy Calabrese, Laura Walman, Fred
Nelson nd Xiangjun Yao, all students at Cornell University.
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