-Caveat Lector-
----Original Message Follows----
From: Mark Graffis <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: undisclosed-recipients:;
Subject: AD 2100: miserable life on overcrowded Earth
Date: Tue, 21 Sep 1999 21:19:12 -0500 (CDT)
A.D. 2100: Cornell study warns of a miserable life on overcrowded Earth
if
population and resources are not controlled
FOR RELEASE: Sept. 20, 1999
Contact: Roger Segelken
Office: (607) 255-9736
E-Mail: [1][EMAIL PROTECTED]
ITHACA, N.Y. -- One hundred years from now, democratically determined
population-control practices and sound resource-management policies
could have the planet's 2 billion people thriving in harmony with the
environment. Lacking these approaches, a new Cornell University study
suggests, 12 billon miserable humans will suffer a difficult life on
Earth by the year 2100.
"Of course, reducing population and using resources wisely will be a
challenging task in the coming decades," says David Pimentel, lead
author of the report titled "Will Limits of the Earth's Resources
Control Human Numbers?" in the first issue of the journal Environment,
Development and Sustainability.
"It will be much more difficult," Pimentel says, "to survive in a
world without voluntary controls on population growth and ever
diminishing supplies of the Earth's resources."
Even at a reduced world population of 2 billion in A.D. 2100, life for
the average Earth dweller will not be as luxurious as it is for many
Americans today. But the lifestyle won't be as wasteful of resources,
either, the Cornell ecologist predicts. Some observers are seeing
early signs that nature is taking a hand at reducing human populations
through malnutrition and disease. According to the report, global
climate change is beginning to contribute to the food and disease
problems.
"With a democratically determined population policy that respects
basic individual rights, with sound resource-use policies, plus the
support of science and technology to enhance energy supplies and
protect the integrity of the environment," the report concludes, "an
optimum population of 2 billion for the Earth can be achieved."
Then the fortunate 2 billion will be free from poverty and starvation,
living in an environment capable of sustaining human life with
dignity, the report suggests, adding a cautionary note:
"We must avoid letting human numbers continue to increase and surpass
the limit of Earth's natural resources and forcing natural forces to
control our number by disease, malnutrition and violent conflicts over
resources," the report says.
Among the key points in the report:
-- The world population is projected to double in about 50 years.
-- Even if a worldwide limit of 2.1 children per couple were adopted
tomorrow, Earth's human population would continue to increase before
stabilizing at around 12 billion in more than 60 years. The major
reason for continued growth is "population momentum," due to the
predominantly young age structure of the world population.
-- The U.S. population has doubled during the past 60 years to 270
million and, at the current growth rate, is projected to double again,
to 540 million, in the next 75 years. Each year our nation adds 3
million people (including legal immigrants) to its population, plus an
estimated 400,000 illegal immigrants.
-- Increasing U.S. and global population will place restrictions on
certain freedoms: freedom to travel and commute to work quickly and
efficiently, freedom to visit and enjoy natural areas, freedom to
select desired foods and freedom to be effectively represented by
government
-- Today, more than 3 billion people suffer from malnutrition, the
largest number and proportion of the world population in history,
according to the World Health Organization. Malnutrition increases the
susceptibility to diseases such as diarrhea and malaria.
-- One reason for the increase in malnutrition is that production of
grains per capita has been declining since 1983. Grains provide 80
percent to 90 percent of the world's food. Each additional human
further reduces available food per capita.
-- The reasons for this per capita decrease in food production are a
20 percent decline in cropland per capita, a 15 percent decrease in
water for irrigation and a 23 percent drop in the use of fertilizers.
-- Biotechnology and other technologies apparently have not been
implemented fast enough to prevent declines in per capita food
production during the past 17 years.
-- Considering the resources likely to be available in A.D. 2100, the
optimal world population would be about 2 billion, with a standard of
living about half that of the United States in the 1990s, or at the
standard experienced by the average European.
The study was funded by Cornell University. In addition to Pimentel,
authors of the Environment, Development and Sustainability report
include Owen Bailey, Paul Kim, Elizabeth Mullaney, Joy Calabrese,
Laura Walman, Fred Nelson nd Xiangjun Yao, all students at Cornell
University.
Related World Wide Web sites: The following sites provide additional
information on this news release. Some might not be part of the
Cornell University community, and Cornell has no control over their
content or availability.
-- Environment, Development and Sustainability journal:
[2]http://www.wkap.nl/journalhome.htm/1387-585X
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References
1. mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
2. http://www.wkap.nl/journalhome.htm/1387-585X
3. http://www.news.cornell.edu/imonth99/Sept99.html
4. http://www.news.cornell.edu/
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In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. section 107, this
material is distributed without charge or profit to those
who have expressed a prior interest in receiving this type
of information for non-profit research and educational
purposes only.
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