-Caveat Lector-

Thursday September 30, 2:48 AM
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/990930/1/8m8g.html


AIDS pandemic seen worsening next century

BOSTON, Sept 29 - Unless the search for a cure for AIDS accelerates or
preventive methods improve, the worst of
the HIV epidemic has yet to come, the director of the National Institute
of Allergy and Infectious Diseases
predicted Wednesday.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, writing in the New England Journal of Medicine, said
"what began as a handful of recognized
cases among homosexual men in the United States has become a global
pandemic of such proportions that it clearly
ranks as one of the most destructive microbial scourges in history."

"Unless methods of prevention, with or without a vaccine, are
successful, the worst of the global pandemic will
occur in the 21st century," he said.

In the United States, the number of new HIV cases each year has leveled
off at 40,000 people, half of them under 25.

However, the number of new cases elsewhere is growing at an alarming
rate.

"Sub-Saharan Africa (is) currently bearing the greatest burden of the
epidemic worldwide," Fauci said. The infection rate in the former
Soviet Union "has escalated sharply over the past few years" and the
virus threatened to invade the Indian subcontinent and Southeast
Asia.

"An estimated 5.8 million new HIV infections occurred worldwide during
1998 -- approximately 16,000 each day. More than 95 percent of
these new infections occurred in developing countries," he said.

Some 2.3 million people worldwide died last year from contracting the
human immunodeficiency virus which leads to acquired immune
deficiency syndrome.

"If the current trend... continues, more than 40 million people will be
infected with HIV as we enter the new millennium," Fauci said.

He said "minimizing the destructive impact of this epidemic will require
partnerships between the public and private sectors as well as a
stronger political will among the nations of the world."

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