-Caveat Lector-
FBI Warns '2000' May Spark Violence
By David A. Vise and Lorraine Adams
Washington Post Staff Writers
Sunday, October 31, 1999
The FBI is warning police chiefs across the country that it has discovered
evidence of religious extremists, racists, cults and other groups preparing
for violence as New Year's Eve approaches and is urging law enforcement
agencies to view the dawn of the next millennium as a catalyst for criminal
activities.
The FBI says those most likely to perpetrate violence are motivated either
by religious beliefs relating to the Apocalypse, or are New World Order
conspiracists convinced the United Nations has a secret plan to conquer the
world.
In a 34-page report prepared by the bureau's domestic terrorism unit, the
FBI says some members of militias and racist groups, including one called
"Christian Identity" and another called "Odinism," are acquiring weapons
and surveying targets in anticipation of the millennium.
FBI officials plan to brief law enforcement officials about the millennial
threat at a closed-door meeting of the International Association of Chiefs
of Police in North Carolina on Tuesday.
The report, a copy of which was obtained by The Washington Post, says that
local law enforcement officials need to monitor radical groups for behavior
such as stockpiling weapons and food that may indicate they are preparing
for violence.
Neil Gallagher, head of the FBI's national security division, said in an
interview that the bureau is not predicting that terrorism or violence will
occur on or around Jan. 1. Instead, he said the report is aimed at making
local law enforcement officials "more sensitive" to the heightened security
risks posed by the year 2000. He also said the public needs to be "aware
but not scared" of such threats. The report says the risks will increase as
Jan. 1 approaches.
"If a cult sells its property and personal effects and purchases guns and
explosives, we need to be more concerned about what that cult will do on
January 1," Gallagher said.
Computer problems brought on by Y2K glitches could be a triggering event
for some groups, the FBI believes. While most people understand that power
outages or other problems resulting from Y2K problems can be explained
rationally, the report notes that some radical groups or individual
extremists may view these events either as signs that the end of the world
is near or as part of a larger conspiracy that they must violently oppose,
the report says.
"The threat posed by extremists as a result of perceived events associated
with the Year 2000 (Y2K) is very real," the FBI report says. "The volatile
mix of apocalyptic religious and [New World Order] conspiracy theories may
produce violent acts aimed at precipitating the end of the world as
prophesied in the Bible."
The report is the result of a nine-month intelligence-gathering effort
called "Project Megiddo" by the bureau's domestic terrorism unit, which
also relied on information gathered by agents in FBI field offices. The
effort is intended to serve as a "strategic assessment" of the potential
for domestic terrorism linked directly to the coming millennium, rather
than a general assessment of the terrorist environment.
The agents have discovered that in preparation for the new millennium,
certain individuals tied to these groups have been acquiring weapons,
storing food and clothing, raising funds, procuring safe houses, preparing
compounds, surveying potential targets, and recruiting converts to their
cause.
In its report, the FBI describes several groups that it says have some
members that pose a violent threat. "Christian Identity" followers,
comprising loosely knit groups throughout the country, are "ardently
opposed to race mixing" and believe that the "white Aryan race is God's
chosen race." Christian Identity provides the "unifying theology" for a
number of "right-wing" groups that pose a threat, the report says.
"Odinists" also adhere to a white supremacist ideology and can be dangerous
because many members believe in becoming "martyrs for the cause," the
report says.
Fringe members of the Aryan Nations white supremacist group may pose a
threat because extremist members will not necessarily adhere to their
leader Richard Butler's public renunciation of violence, according to the
FBI. In addition, radical U.S. members of a group called the "Black Hebrew
Israelites," who are proponents of "an extreme form of black supremacy,"
also pose a threat.
"Current intelligence from a variety of sources indicates that extreme
factions of [Black Hebrew Israelites] groups are preparing for a race war
to close the millennium," the FBI report says.
While most of the report focuses on domestic threats, an entire portion is
devoted to Jerusalem, where the FBI says an influx of tourists making
pilgrimages and millennial cults will add to the danger. The study also
says violence in Jerusalem, a holy city for Christians, Jews and Muslims,
could lead to problems in the United States and around the world. The FBI
report--"Project Megiddo"--is named after a hill in northern Israel that
has been the site of many battles. The Hebrew word "Armageddon" means "hill
of Megiddo," the study says.
"Israeli officials are extremely concerned that the Temple Mount, an area
already seething with tension and distrust among Muslims and Jews, will be
the stage for violent encounters between religious zealots," the study
says. "Additionally, several religious cults have already made inroads into
Israel, apparently in preparation for what they believe to be the endtimes."
The FBI report said potential targets of domestic violence include military
facilities; United Nations buildings and personnel; institutions associated
with the African American and Jewish communities and other racial and
religious minorities; gay men and lesbians; and foreign military units
residing on U.S. bases.
"Armed with the urgency of the millennium as a motivating factor, new
clandestine groups may conceivably form to engage in violence toward the
U.S. government or its citizens," the FBI report warns.
The FBI's Gallagher, who declined to release a copy of the report, said the
bureau is in the process of distributing the study to police chiefs and is
considering making public a redacted version on its Web site.
Gallagher said it is extremely difficult to make accurate predictions about
terrorism. "Acts of violence in commemoration of the millennium are just as
likely to occur as not," the FBI report says.
While much of the focus related to the millennium has been linked to the
prospect of computer failures, Gallagher intends to advise the police
chiefs this week that it is important to prepare now for the unusually wide
range of interpretations people may bring to random events occurring on or
near Jan. 1, 2000, and the role that the Internet may play in spreading
information--or misinformation--rapidly.
"The name 'Megiddo,' " the FBI report begins, "is an apt title for a
project that analyzes those who believe the year 2000 will usher in the end
of the world and who are willing to perpetrate acts of violence to bring
that end about."
Copyright 1999 The Washington Post Company
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