-Caveat Lector-

http://unisci.com/stories/19994/1102991.htm


                   Despite Global Warming, Southeast
                          Cooler Last 50 Years

                Despite record-breaking heat this summer and
                increased levels of greenhouse gases in our air, the
                climate in the southeastern United States actually
                has cooled slightly over the past 50 years. North
                Carolina State University atmospheric scientists
                have found that annual mean daily temperatures at
                52 weather stations across the region have
                decreased, on average, 0.10 degree Celsius -- or
                about 0.18 degree Fahrenheit -- from 1949 to 1994.


                A drop that small may seem insignificant. But lead
                researcher Dr. Vinod Saxena says its implications
                may be huge as scientists and policymakers from
                around the world gather this month (November
                1999) at a United Nations' Global Climate
                Conference in Argentina to debate the controversial
                Kyoto Treaty on carbon dioxide emissions and
                greenhouse warming.

                "The bottom line is, despite a documented increase
                of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere, we found no
                evidence of greenhouse warming in the
                southeastern United States," Saxena says. Other
                studies have documented similar cooling trends in
                parts of Asia and Europe, he says.

                "According to the global warming model the Kyoto
                Treaty is based on, these are regions where
                warming should be occurring. But it's not," he says.
                Such discrepancies should be a red flag to treaty
                ratification, he believes, because they show that
                though the causes and effects of greenhouse
                warming are well proven on a global scale, its
                regional effects aren't yet well understood.

                Saxena and his colleagues at NC State have
                published their studies on the Southeast's climate in
                three peer-reviewed scientific papers. They
                presented their most recent findings at the
                American Meteorological Society's eighth
                Conference on Climate Variations in Denver, Colo.,
                earlier this fall.

                The Kyoto Treaty mandates cutting carbon dioxide
                emissions by 5 percent below 1990 levels as a way
                of slowing or reversing global warming. The
                Southeast's coal-fired power plants, coal mining and
                fossil fuel-related industries would likely be
                adversely affected by such reductions, Saxena
                says.

                The main scientific problem with the model used as
                a basis for the treaty, he says, is that it takes into
                account the effects of carbon dioxide, but not of
                airborne particulate matter, also called aerosols.
                Aerosols are created by the same natural and
                manmade sources as greenhouse gases, including
                coal-fired power plants. But because they absorb
                water and deflect solar radiation, they have the
                same effect as painting a house roof white -- they
                reflect heat.

                In regions like the Southeast -- which tends to be a
                catch basin for air pollution generated by industrial
                plants outside the region, in the Ohio Valley -- the
                sunlight-deflecting effects of aerosols in that
                pollution offsets the warming effects of its carbon
                dioxide content, Saxena says.

                His studies of cloud cover at Mount Mitchell since
                1986 show conclusively that clouds fed by dirty air
                masses -- created when airflow comes from the
                Ohio Valley -- are more reflective than clouds
                formed by air masses that come from cleaner
                environments such as the ocean or coastal plain.
                Cooling surface temperatures have coincided with
                the increase of aerosols in our air.

                "I am not saying that it is good to have dirty air -- I
                have witnessed pollution so bad it produces clouds
                with an acidity that matches pure lemon juice and
                vinegar," Saxena says. "What I am saying is before
                we pass an international treaty that will cause
                severe economic dislocations in the Southeast, we
                should make sure we understand the regional
                causes and effects of carbon dioxide and the role
                of aerosols and cloud cover in heating and cooling.
                Scientific credibility, and thousands of jobs, are at
                stake." - By Tim Lucas

                [Contact: Dr. Vinod Saxena, Tim Lucas]

                02-Nov-1999



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