-Caveat Lector- From: John Hammell <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Date: Fri, 05 Nov 1999 Subject: Oil IAHF List: I debated whether or not to send this out at all, but decided to send it as an attached file. Its not short, but its very informative. I already sent it out to a handful of people on my list who I know personally, but now I wish I hadn't sent it directly to them either because its too heavy. I should have given them a choice. What it is is an interview with a consultant to the oil industry -- someone with 30 years of experience who is telling the sad, awful truth about oil production and y2k. Beyond saying this, I won't give you the specifics. If you feel ok in your comfort zone, and can't handle this information. Don't read it. If you are the sort of person who likes complete information about what is going on, and can handle gut wrenching info, and feel that you need it in order to help you remain motivated and to plan -- read it, but only if you haven't been having a bad day. I'm warning you in advance. Its heavy. Very heavy. Even for me. I feel sick after reading it. Its so heavy, I decided to only send it as an attached file. If you're looking for a survival community -- Check out the website of Y2K Survival Communities at http://www.webpal.org/list From here on in, I'm going to spend a lot more time methodically just doing each thing on my prep list and checking them off. I'm not going to spend nearly as much time on line. Please pray for me, and I will pray for you. Your friend, John ************************************************************** IAHF:(International Advocates for Health Freedom) PO Box 625 Floyd, Virginia,24091, USA 800-333-2553, overseas: 540-745-6534, 540-745-6535 fax, http://www.iahf.com email: [EMAIL PROTECTED] ************************************************************** Attachment Converted: "OilGone.wpd" Art B Rosenblum <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Nov 4, 1999 Dear Folks, Sorry to have to send you this and I know most will not read it 'casuse it's a bit long (40kb), but you fail to read it at your own peril. It's time to get SERIOUS ! The Y2K circuit is buzzing, about this. It's from a chat line called OilChat, and it center's on a woman named DD, who says she's been an oil rig and oil field consultant for 30 years, and gives us some really heavy duty information about what she thinks we can expect from that situation. I find her credible, as a person -- though, of course, I have no knowledge of the field. But there is more to the stuff that is circulating, than this one chat... there's also another, twice as long as this, which is a multi- dialogue between a dozen or more with varying degrees of actual oil rig experience, debating the pros and cons of what she is saying... and while it is never fully resolved, she has quite a bit of support among them. If any of you are interested, I can forward that second chat run privately. If she is right, about the frequently touted oil reserves in this country amounting to hardly anything at all, and the potential reduction of available oil by as much as 60 to 70%, BEFORE THE MONTH OF JANUARY IS OUT -- if she is only halfway right! -- then all the other work toward remediation is not going to save this country from a really huge crash, and well before springtime. This sits BEHIND the condition of the power grid, just as the power grid sits behind the compliance of every other part of the infrastructure. It is surely something we need to think about, as we make our own plans for coping with it. Irv From: "Y2K People Finding People" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Y2K People Finding People -- http://www.webpal.org/list.htm The following captured discussion is however, not hard news. It is opinion, and the opinion of a doomer at that. Nevertheless, it has an internal integrity that impresses me. It appears to me to be INSIDER discussion. It is the sort of thing that helps shape and direct my thinking. BUT, it is not the type of thing that I usually broadly share. HOWEVER, a number of people with whom I have shared this think that I should share it more broadly. It came to me as a secondary source of an edited version of a chat Jon Hylands participated in Oct 26. AND I have edited it further. Many, many months ago I wrote an article saying how Gas and Oil are the SMOKING GUN of Y2K, and so this sort of thing still comes to me. To me, this verifies my position further. But you must remember the following discussion reflects the views of a 'doomer'. Selection of a discussion by a 'polly' could give you quite different views. My source reports that Jon Hylands has had private conversations with DD and can vouch that she is for real and that she also had a private conversation Greg Caton (who had a two hour phone conversation with DD) and agrees with what is reported here. (Allaha) DD, tell us about your background. (DD1stLight) I am a top problem solver/facilitator in the oil/gas industry so have a broader picture than most in my industry. Have been working with some large independents (none of the 'public' companies will admit or do much) that are doing what they can to ensure as large an output as they can. (Ryker) How's things in the oil industry? (DD1stLight) Actually I am working on a job that is geared to propane, so it feels good to be doing things that will actually aid these problems. I am in Corpus Christi right now. None of the work I am doing is close enough to my home to help us out, but it will aid some. (Ryker) I've heard conflicting reports on oil supply. One person says there's a 6 month supply stored up in US. Other reports I've heard say about 30 days. Which is right? (DD1stLight) Neither. The 'strategic petroleum reserve' is a bit of a myth. It is very poor grade and the ability to pump it out and then refine it is very limited. There is about a 3 1/4 day supply of refined product available in the system in normal times. (Hylands) Since the SPR is stored in caverns, I would suspect contamination problems. (Ryker) So, the claim of 6 month supply stored up is WAY off base? (DD1stLight) Well, it is MAYBE 6 months of very limited basic usage, but it would take a couple of years to get it out, transport, refine, etc., so it is basically a myth. We have deep problems some of which are not fixable -- period (Ryker) The reserve is not for public use, just for military, power plants, and distribution of essential goods? (DD1stLight) Generally but even that would be improbable at best. After January, public use -- even rationed -- is out of the question given the short supply. (Hylands) That would spiral into an economic collapse so fast it wouldn't be funny (Ryker) I know... Think we're headed for that anyway... (DD1stLight) I see absolutely no way that economy will not fall very flat on its face. Remember, that at the very worst in the 70's "oil crisis" we were dealing with a 7% reduction in availability. I will be jumping up and down if my industry can supply 45% of today's refined product, (and remember that is only about 40% at best of our daily usage at present) (jcollins) How would this affect the local production of oil? Booming times for local crude? (DD1stLight) Local crude is in deep trouble, problems down hole not possible to fix, then have to get to refineries (which are band-aided to pieces as it is) then distribution etc. But some of the biggest problems are that we have few 1 for 1 replacement chips. So we have to re-blueprint DAB's etc. and that takes many long months most times (Ryker) And chip plants are overseas which involves other problems (y2kworried) So, it sounds like it will take a long time to get oil production back. (DD1stLight) That's right. There are no quick fixes for lots of things (Hylands) If it takes more than a few weeks to get it back, I don't think it's going to happen at all (DD1stLight) Lots of power companies are stocking 2 to 4 weeks of fuel so we don't expect most problems to become critical until 3rd week of January. For the first time in my life I find myself agreeing with the Dept of Defense. They are figuring contingencies on 30% availability of today's supply of oil and gas. (Hylands) Susie, any new news on the Fed Reserve dude? (susie0884) The guy, who retired from the Fed, was planning to spend the winter in the Northern mountains. Will be there before Nov. and to get out of DC where he is presently. Who goes to MT or ID for the winter? (DD1stLight) People for the most part are so terrified of it crashing that they will and are doing lots in hopes they can keep it afloat etc. Remember that half of all American households are invested in the stock market or commodities and most of them are hip deep in debt to boot. Amazing the number who have taken out home equity loans and used all or part to invest in the market. Scary (GregCaton) I have been getting reports this week about likely disruptions in oil supply, mostly foreign. I got a call this morning from a good friendin San Antonio who has a business associate (retired full-bird colonel from Navy) who has been overseas recently and confirms that very little remediation is being done where it needs to be in oil. (DD1stLight) Well, foreign has big troubles but not much worse than our own, I am sorry to say (TymeNTide) My company in Alabama has about 1000 employees, in my case. Not more than 10 compliant computers in the entire biz..... still "working on it"..... (DD1stLight) sounds about right from what I am getting from buddies who are still overseas (most of which have come on home already). The best we can figure is 26% to 34% of today's availability, sorry wish it was better news. If oil production is over 40% I will be dancing in the street. I am looking for a minimum 60% drop in availability. Anyone want to hear a true story? (Hylands) Sure, DD1 (DD1stLight) The 3rd week of July last year Mobil Oil got their 'analysis' for remediation. It was $460 Million + and over 3 1/2 years. They came back 2 weeks later and asked for a new analysis with differing base criteria. About 6 weeks later they did a 'merger' with Exxon, remember? 11 majors have since done similar things and the number of filings to reorganize into limited liability companies and partnerships is amazing. The majors are joining and the front companies will fold under and the back up companies will reestablish when they can. Why would an industry let itself start the big problems now when they can cash in for however many months they can? Like Exxon front, Mobil back etc. The back up companies are taking the cash and will start again under new names when they can. (GregCaton) Is this to avoid the effects of litigation? Distinguish between front and back companies. (Dean--DuhMoyn) Do they think deflation will cause all prices to drop, so a long is a big gamble? (DD1stLight) To take a "long" you have to figure there will be enough to go around somehow. This move is for litigation and the surety that they will fail on supply contracts. Remember they have had experience at being made the "bad-guy" to the American public. They learned well. (GregCaton) But with something like this, no one can believe that there is a basis to single out oil companies and make them a whipping boy. Want a whipping boy for Y2K? Microsoft is a far more likely candidate. From a supply / demand situation... what is the basis for thinking that there will be a deflation in oil anytime soon? (DD1stLight) Supply has deep problems. Our refineries are some of the oldest and nastiest there are and we have been unable to build new ones in this country for many years now. They are band-aided to the max now. Remediation for most is next to impossible. It is MUCH cheaper to build new when they can. (GregCaton) Yes, DD, but you are assuming that the laws of supply and demand will go out the window (DD1stLight) Nope, supply and demand are basic but when the supply falls so far below even the minimal demand, people will get very angry. We had this situation in the past. (Hylands) So, does the govt know this, or are the oil companies lying to them? (DD1stLight) Read the Senate 100 day Y2K report, go to the utilities section: http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001eAu and look at the part about oil/gas, and pay close attention to how they got their numbers (GregCaton) Explain. (DD1stLight) 8000+ letters sent to producers and only got back 450+ answers. Not many, so they just decided to use the 66 companies that they saw as most major and still their scenarios are a bit daunting. They tried to put a good face on it even then. (GregCaton) When will the problem get out of control? (DD1stLight) Expecting things to get sticky big time around the 3rd week of January. (GregCaton) Is there a probability curve here? Or are you speaking with surety? (DD1stLight) I have spent a good bit of time for the last 10 years gathering solid date, good math from my industry where possible. I like good numbers and want them to be verifiable in at least 2 ways; 3 is better. I would say this is real. The best I can come up with is 26 to 34% of current supply, optimistically 46% (GregCaton) Is there anyone here who doesn't believe that if we had 60% drop in oil for 30 days, that we wouldn't be (a la Howard Ruff) at 2,000 Dow in 2000 ? (Hylands) If it lasts for 30 days, it's all over (Ryker`) Greg, if we have a 60% drop in oil for 30 days, the stock market won't be around any more... (GregCaton) it will be around. Dormant, perhaps. Even under 2,000 points... but still around (DD1stLight) I am trying to be optimistic, am hoping for 40% availability of today's supplies being available (underpaid) Loss of oil flow -- candling of pipelines -- problems with tankers/ports -- VERRRRY SERIOUS -- End of economy PERIOD. (Tulladew) Gasoline might be expensive, even if rationed (DD1stLight) Rationed assumes there will be enough for basic services with some left over. These amounts are not sufficient for basic services etc. I expect nationalization at the least (DD1stLight) Can anyone here think of a single industry that is not wholly or secondarily reliant upon the oil/gas industry? Refineries take several years to build even at critical speed, pipelines the same, wells take a while too etc. (GregCaton) How long have you held these convictions, as to percentages, time line, etc ? (DD1stLight) Greg, the first time I jumped up and down in a corporate board room about Y2K was in 1976. I started gathering serious data about 8 years ago as I saw little being done still about my industry specifically (GregCaton) What caused you to be so concerned in 76 ? (DD1stLight) I needed to input 1800's info into the computers and could not. (GregCaton) 1800's info? Why? (DD1stLight) My industry pays people who own the land/mineral interests according to the % they own so is very important, also for getting the rights by lease to explore for oil/gas etc. Deeds and court suits from the 1800's are many times still in effect today. (Ryker`) Can I try to summarize to see if I got all this? You're saying that there may be a 60% drop in oil supply that will become evident about the 3rd week of January. And this drop may last years due to Y2K computer problems at everything from oil wells to refineries? (DD1stLight) Yes. Add to that problems when/if a system that is down-hole noncompliant. A system that is physically located several hundred or thousand feet below the surface and is totally not accessible, and therefore cannot easily be fixed. (GregCaton) Were they really that stupid ???? (DD1stLight) give him a cigar, yes. Redrill IF you can, but it is not possible to redrill many and get production again. (Hylands) Greg, some of the natural gas wells up here in Alberta are dug 20,000 feet down (GregCaton) DD1 -- And these deep wells do NOT have manual overrides? (DD1stLight) not stupid, maybe ignorant -- scariest thing I am seeing is some of the simplified assumptions that so many are making in remediation analysis (Ryker`) It comes down to short term profits. If they can drill the well and start making money immediately, that's all they were worried about... Didn't want to spend time to redesign systems to make them compliant for an event that was years in the future... (DD1stLight) EPA requires that the wells have RAMS -- that is a great big snap valve that closes shut if there is a problem with the well that would/could make it unsafe/blowout etc. EPA required immediate response and actually very few people ever really gave it much thought (y2kworried) The implications are staggering, our whole economy is based on automobile and truck transportation, and planes, and ships, and locomotives (DD1stLight) Even hydro electric is totally reliant upon large amounts of very specific lubricant (GregCaton) How many in upper management fully grasp / accept what you are now saying ? (DD1stLight) Some. Most are like most people. They really do not want to look at the possibilities. Can't say I blame them. It's not like one guy knows the ins and outs of how his product is drilled, pumped, refined, distributed, etc. (GregCaton) Is there the slightest doubt in your mind that this all equates to a depression more serious than the 30's ? (DD1stLight) NONE. I am in a very unique position in that I am consultant to most majors and many minors and have been around so long I can get info (GregCaton) How is it then that you would have a broad interdisciplinary overview... but few others in the board room would ??? (DD1stLight) Because I am a mean old lady who is more likely to kick someone on IT than kiss IT so I work strictly on contract. Also have more degrees than carter has pills and am known in the industry. I do everything from facilitate the sales of major companies to figure out how to get around a bottleneck at a refinery. (GregCaton) Alright. (WIPING THE BLACKBOARD CLEAN..) Let's start fresh and talk about how this impacts the Inflation vs. Deflation arguments. Where do you stand on this issue? Inflationary Depression? Deflationary Depression? A complete economic collapse? (DD1stLight) most of the old stripper wells have been plugged, few left really but no refineries are in worse shape than the wells (Hylands) No commercial airplanes. Think about that for a minute. (DD1stLight) we need to remember that $ is only worth anything because we all agree it is, when we stop agreeing we call it inflation or deflation. Most workers I talk to think it is only this plant that has problems. Another example of ostrich syndrome which is very understandable from a psychological viewpoint. (GregCaton) .... feeling like we really ARE the first people in thefirst Titanic lifeboat. (Hylands) Exactly my point. (GregCaton) Amazing when you consider than 99.8% of the people in society reading this would think we're all psychotic. (Hylands) Airplanes, trains, transport trucks, ships, electrical generation, you name it (GregCaton) How much have the electric utilities done to stockpile gas, oil, coal, etc. (DD1stLight) best I can find is that most are attempting to store an average of 3 weeks supply. Some, like TU in east Texas, have their own coal mines and rails to them, but only have the ability to store about 4 weeks of lubricants (GregCaton) So then the SHTF in late January? (DD1stLight) Yes (y2kworried) What is even more important: that oil is the basis of food production (Hylands) oil is the basis of electricity, thus it is the basis for just about everything (DD1stLight) most fertilizer is made from natural gas condensates. I have looked and looked for years now at every industry i can see becoming more dependant upon oil/gas and computers. NOT less. Tenneco and Chevron actually came clean on their last year's Q10 third quarter reports and stated they expect to have about 30% production available after Y2K (DD1stLight) I keep hearing about the 'national grid system' which is a joke. Texas has its own grid. NO major AC connection to any other and only 2 main DC's for ballast (Hylands) There are four main grids in North America (Alwyn) San Onofre Nuclear Plant here sounded the all clear today ...forty people, three years, $10 million and repaired or replaced over 300 components. (DD1stLight) The Texas grid is totally integrated, all have it or none have it, not possible to 'island' anywhere in Texas (GregCaton) DD1 -- So... let's define what "10" means. In your mind will this cause the collapse of the U.S. Government as we know it? (DD1stLight) government as we now know it, may well be. Some form of government will remain though. It is why the very best minds I know have already stopped taking contracts or if employee just did not show up for work one day and left no forwarding address (Ryker`) Greg? Have you risen your estimate to a 10 now? (GregCaton) If you live in Watts... it will be a 10. But if you're a self-sufficient farmer living in Colorado ... it might be a 3 as far as you're concerned. Don't know. (DD1stLight) You got it, Greg. That's why I opt for 8.5 is a mean (Hylands) Greg, how many people do you think depend on electricity, even rural farmers? (GregCaton) Hylands -- There are some farmers who have only had power since the '30's ... I think that farmers, with or without oil, are steeped in a tradition of hardship and "having to make due". "A country boy can survive..." (Hylands) Exactly, how many? I'll bet it's not many. Now, we're pretty smart, so we'll figure a lot of stuff out, but still... (Hylands) How many farms can irrigate their crops with a hand well pump? How many farmers today can grow their crops without bought seeds, fertilizer, diesel tractors, etc? (DD1stLight) Few, and mules and oxen are a lost art to most and not available or trained etc., not like a tractor you can't just build one you have to grow it. And those horses are for the most part "pets" LOL (Alwyn) They are pets, in the sense that they don't pull a plow. But, they are a resource. (GregCaton) I'd say enough farms for about 10% of the people to make it. (Hylands) Greg, that's about my figure, 10%. Yep, can you be sustainable with water, food, heat, and sanitation. People, without clean drinking water, will die (GregCaton) So that's the task: be one out of the ten. (New slogan for the Marine Corp): "We're looking for a few good one out of tens!" (DD1stLight) for goodness sakes folks DO NOT just take my word for all this, do your own research, there is plenty available on the net for you to see, just go to the real sites etc., check out the defense departments contingency plan figures for oil/gas. I think the biggest killers besides cholera, typhus, thyphoid and diptheria and dysentery will be pure old culture shock (Hylands) This is why I think a 2 year food supply is a wise idea (DD1stLight) I have to thank Hylander for inviting me to this room, it is good to be able to talk to people who have more than 2 brain cells to rub together and play with and are not caught into immobility by fear etc. * Hylands takes a bow (Alwyn) Ryker... you can go low-tech and cheap on the purifier... Pur has systems for $30 that do everything a Kaytadn (sp) does for $300. (Hylands) Alwyn, problem with the PUR is it won't do 20,000 gallons, and the Katadyn will (GregCaton) DD1 -- Allow me to give you some perspective. Speaking personally, we're got two cisterns, a water well, (motor and manual)... 24 solar panels (75 watts each) within a complete solar system... protection (won't elaborate) ... ham radio equipment (I'm an Extra Class holder)..... who would do this if they didn't take Y2K seriously? (DD1stLight) the RAMs located down-hole in the wells, we know that there are a goodly number that are NOT ok, when they malfunction we know (by actual testing) that they close the RAMs which cannot be reopened, cannot get to them to reset etc. (Gary_Seattle) but Katadyn might not handle all of the stuff pur gets rid of (Hylands) DD1, I'm really glad you came, and hereby invite you back again every Tuesday, same time (DD1stLight) well we have cisterns, well, food etc. (actually can feed about 300+ people for about 3 months) but not much in the way of electricity generating, no radios etc. (DD1stLight) one of the scariest assumptions I see people making is "it's analog, look no further" SHEEEEEESH!!! Many date sensitive chips were used in nondate related places because they were cheap, available, and did the job (Aubrey) I've got a First Need deluxe and a simple Pur pitcher that will take out everything up to virus size particles (DD1stLight) nite tyme, would not blame yall if you dreaded the day I came in. LOL and kicked Hylander for bringing me (underpaid) DD1 -- thanks for the doom! I like to keep those stress muscles worked out -- gotta go -- bye (DD1stLight) still working with a couple of large independents that are racing to get small gas fields with propane generating capabilities up for the turnover so some will be available more (DD1stLight) I really am called DD (Hylands) DD1, I'm curious, have you noticed an increase in refinery explosions over the past year or so? (DD1stLight) Not really. Lots of major breakdowns, but that is to be expected from antiquated refineries. What I cant figure out is how so many miss the implications of my industry. Its like most do not even think about it in the equation. I see it even in people who are honestly looking for real info. Come to think of it, why would most know much about it? It is a very 'closed' mouth industry, very competitive. (Gary_Seattle) One thing I think DD1, we should keep quiet in our little neighborhoods about what we are doing (DD1stLight) I try to respect the choices of those who do not choose to see all this, not my way, but must be appropriate for them (GregCaton) It's like Gary North says ... if they aren't preparing by now, spreading the word is more likely to hurt you. It is one thing to prepare for neighbors. It is another thing to jeopardize your family by alerting the entire community. (DD1stLight) we are all adult and agree to our course. I am an Elder of my people and such is our way. Have large greenhouses that will be in full production as well, and know all native plants. (Guest75909) Tell us of your people. (DD1stLight) I am of small band called Kee-Apa. And we also have much of medicines etc. We are from West Texas, kind of a mix of Comanche, Kiowa and Apache. There is no hospital there. How many are getting full vaccinations for cholera etc. so you can help those who get it? I am what this society calls a medicine woman and older partner is called the medicine man. I sit on the pan-american council of elders, so do much like when honduras and nicaragua got hit by Hurricane Mitch. The indigenous peoples there did not get govt help. By the time we can get in all diabetics etc. are already gone, worse death rate is usually from dysentery and parasites. (GregCaton) DD1 -- I wanted to get back to some earlier unanswered questions that we couldn't cover because of all the chatter traffic .... At what point did it become apparent to you that this was an unavoidable train wreck ? Gary North likes to say that, for him, it was early 97. (DD1stLight) About 3 years ago was about the last point that we could have really gotten it done to point that train would not derail or wreck takes many months to reblueprint DAB's etc. (DD1stLight) and i speak of my industry there (GregCaton) In other words, if they had put all their resources into remediation in late 1996, it might have been avoided? (DD1stLight) YES. Almost certainly. I bought my house with it in mind 6 years ago, did not see much of anything being done and seemed improbable it would even then. (GregCaton) I see. I asked you earlier if you saw any chance we wouldn't see (at the least) a 30's style depression, and you said NONE. (DD1stLight) And do not forget that for this last year oil prices have been in the basement, Everyone liked the low prices but it took needed funds away when they were needed most, as the slump a couple of years ago did, too. (DD1stLight) depression requires a base economy and ability to do much, don't think we will have it. Hope we will and that depression is the worst it will be (Gary_Seattle) We don't have a base economy, we produce almost nothing (DD1stLight) With currency that is not based in metals. It is only based in peoples opinion of the value of $. We have not even been able to feed our own population since the early 90's (GregCaton) I have a friend who knows Ed Yardeni quite well. He says that in private, Yardeni paints a picture of extreme depression. (DD1stLight) I am not surprised, kind of figured that Ed was burned out, and who could blame him. He has been vocal and would not like to be the roman messenger etc. (GregCaton) DD1 -- Actually, the U.S. remains one of the world's largest exporters of food stuffs. (DD1stLight) Foodstuffs, yes. But we have a population that demands large amounts of all products available year round (Dean--DuhMoyn) What about deflation? For the first 3 months, then after. Will there be a US economy? (Guest75909) The U.S. is a food exporter. Our graineries are stuffed to overflowing (DD1stLight) but we import more than we export in edible human foods. (GregCaton) I guess that depends on what we call edible. (DD1stLight) graneries yes (with a rail system that cannot still seem to move it around sufficiently for a lot to not rot, due to the computer problems still of merging the UP with ATSF (Gary_Seattle) The Dept of Agriculture does not have a huge food back up supply (DD1stLight) ever seen anyone on a forced diet that was any fun to be around? LOL (Guest75909) only as a matter of taste, and I will check that out ... doesn't sound right. (DD1stLight) check out the produce from S. America, Mexico etc. also. We use to feed the world I know, is a hard pill that we have let so very many family farms go under. (Gary_Seattle) food from Mexico and S. America is full of garbage. In Mexico they use DDT. (Guest75909) they got rid of food reserve program when they went to food stamps. (mebs) Where do our big canners get most of their produce? (DD1stLight) I see the acres of greenhouses in far west texas growing momoculture vegetables (Guest75909) produce from south america, mexico is seasonal ... we can have tomatoes and strawberries year around (DD1stLight) tomatoes are main thing they are growing out there yes (Guest75909) agribusiness is very efficient (DD1stLight) any here old enough to remember when citrus was seasonal to buy here? or any of a dozen other items of produce we would all today consider a staple and be shocked it was not at store? I remember when local store had only onions, potatoes carrots year round (Guest75909) I drive through the San Joaquin valley at various times of the year... the great garden of the world. (DD1stLight) yes and i must say I really do like it. I would be most happy to see this all be a great big product of fertile imaginations.... but I do not seem to be able to live in that level of fantasy. I am extremely lazy and would like to stay that way (Ryker) DD1... just out of curiosity, do you think the human race needs something like this to happen? To help slap us back to reality? (DD1stLight) don't know about needing it but historically it seems to be a bit inevitable that something comes along. Interesting that so many cultures have prophesies that all are showing intriguing signs. Funny thing about TEOTWAWKI is that that seems to happen about every 30 years or so anyway, even without a big bang. (Guest75909) DD -- I asked earlier about shutdowns during rollover... is that going to be the norm in Texas? (DD1stLight) I have heard some of the refineries and chemical plants talking of such and a couple have announced it like at Deerpark. (Ryker) How old are you if you don't mind me asking?? (DD1stLight) Actually I do not really know but am probably in mid fifties. Just grew with old style people. (GregCaton) I don't see it. Can you really think of anything, worldwide, to happen to civilization, that could be as big a meltdown as this? Anything at all that you could compare to? (DD1stLight) I know it is impossible, no matter how hard I try, to grasp the real possibilities. The only thing I know for sure is that whatever scenario I come up with cannot be the whole of it (Gary_Seattle) One thing no one brought up tonight are the solar flares coming (not to change subjects) to cause further disruptions (GregCaton) Ham radio operators are already feeling its effects. On some nights there's very little HF traffic. (DD1stLight) How about that mass coronal ejection on June 2? That was a biggy MCE's that size were theoretically possible yes, but was the first we really got to measure. (GregCaton) Gary ... any news from your programmer friends in the field ???? (Gary_Seattle) are you familiar with Fleetwood Mac? "tell me lies, tell me sweet little lies..." (GregCaton) That's it? They just tell you that everybody's lying about compliance? (DD1stLight) Read carefully. Most 'statements' do not outright lie. They just leave out important issues. Tell me a single utility that has even broached the subject of fuel supplies. (Ryker) Sounds a bit like the NERC reports. "Fill out this form so we know how we're doing. Oh, by the way. Here's what you should put on the form......" :\ (Gary_Seattle) Officially we are Y2K compliant. I got lucky, I was in the hospital the day I was supposed to sign the paper saying compliant. (DD1stLight) what scares me is the companies who have spent only a fraction of their budget (Dean--DuhMoyn) DD -- my electric company (Alliant) suggested getting extra firewood, a generator, water, food, etc. (DD1stLight) I sent a letter to the co-op overseers in the state gov with some very tough questions. They did not reply, but sent them to my local co-op. The manager did not even understand the questions nor did any there. (Gary_Seattle) so Greg, are you more or less optimistic today about Y2K? (GregCaton) If even half of this is truth, I'm edging closer to 9.5 (major disaster) (DD1stLight) Greg I was reading again today about all you bad boys who are 'hyping' all this stuff to make the big bucks. I wish to heck I was lying through my teeth (GregCaton) Anyone who thinks we're getting rich on Y2K is wrong. (Rodig) Is it just me, or does anyone else live 2 lives, one preparing for big problems and one planning as if nothing is going to happen at all? (GregCaton) Rodig -- No... you are not alone in this. Forgive me if all this seems surrealistic, even though I've been studying the issue this long. (Guest75909) preparing yes, and living the current life, yes ... working everyday, yes (DD1stLight) In some ways I think it is harder now that we are all prepped. The doing was a comfort for a long time. Anyone get solace from stepping into their pantry from time to time? (Gary_Seattle) I still am shocked by the media saying nothing about the coming storm (DD1stLight) what actually could they say that would not just start the hard times sooner? (GregCaton) NBC has scheduled a TV movie about Y2K Movie for November 21. (DD1stLight) I'm looking at November 17th with interest. That's when the Leonid meteor storm hits and we ain't talking a shower, folks. This would be the first we have really had since we had satellites. Could be interesting. Last year it was not as close and they were able to turn the satellites 12 % to have the smallest face to it and could still get enough solar to operate. Two only were hit. Well now that I have probably succeeded in giving some nightmares, I must say it has been good to be able to talk truth tonight. (Guest75909) DD... could you recap for those who came late to the party? (DD1stLight) Best figures we can come up with is 26 to 34% of today's available supplies of oil/gas and refined products being available through about the 3rd, week of January. Even if was the reverse and was only a 30% decrease, it would be a very bad time. The worst of the 70's 'oil crisis' was about a 7% reduction. Figure no gasoline available to the general public after January (Guest75909) Is that caused by refining problems here, transportation problems from overseas, or a combination of causes? (the usual suspects... chips, power problems, software snafus) (Ryker) all of the above and then some (DD1stLight) refining, wells, gathering lines, pipelines, etc. Old refineries that have been band-aided to the max already (haven't been able to build new ones mostly, the old "not in my back yard" syndrome). Also embedded chips in the offshore, onshore wells in RAMs etc. and then we get to the re-blueprinting of DABS etc. These figures are for domestic production, which is about 60% at best of our consumption. The overseas situation is even worse. (Ryker) DD -- Greg said a couple weeks ago that they are just now starting to work on the critical nav systems for freighters and tankers, and that there is now way they'll get done in time. If that's true, imports will be gone or severely reduced too... (Guest75909) What about safety issues? (DD1stLight) I do not really know that end of the industry well, sorry. But I know enough that I chose to live far from them. The safety issues are the ones that ARE getting massive attention, so I am not expecting bad problems. (Guest75909) Did you know that the only work done on most refineries recently has been environmental compliance work? Safety is where the greatest liability issues are for the refiners. (DD1stLight) yes that is the baby that is getting the attention, probably the best thing. Also is where a large percentage of the real problems are too. What gives me the willies are the naphtha etc. pipelines -shudder- Heck, we do not even know where a good many of the pipelines really are underground. I know it sounds crazy to those not in the business but is true. (Guest75909) Yes -- very evil mixtures of chemicals come out of those pipes... all flammable and toxic in the extreme. (DD1stLight) also who back then would have been able to dream of the level of distribution we have and need today? Most of the right of way deeds even today do not pinpoint the location or even how many lines. They use 'blanket' right of ways that just allow to cross "as staked" or just across such and such a piece of land. Although most nowadays are documented well in the companies who build them, but give them one big take over and records get misplaced. (Ryker) Sounds like a disaster waiting to happen with or without Y2K computer problems... (DD1stLight) there have been some problem, and there will be more as they get older. (Ryker) If an underground line breaks, how do they find the break if they don't know for sure where the line is? (DD1stLight) if it breaks there is little difficulty finding the break, is usually a pretty big hole showing a big oil spill, although some they know have leaks they have never been able to find (Guest75909) folks in the construction industry have to deal with this all the time... sometimes not successfully. There is an agency that tries to track this stuff but it is way too complex. (DD1stLight) Yes, they try but the info is very sketchy many times (Rodig) So what do you think the price of gas will go to, when you will be able to get it? (DD1stLight) After January, there won't be any gas for public use at any price. (Guest75909) Colonial says it will shut down its Houston to Linden (NJ) pipeline for at least 8 hours over the roll (Gray_Seattke) whom is going to go to Blackfoot Idaho to uncover feet of snow to find which chip in the railroad is bad? NOT ME (DD1stLight) well it might just help to shut them down and get them back up. But there is nothing to put in them or a way to pressurize all along the way won't do much good, I'm afraid (Guest75909) pressurization requires electricity, yes? (Gray_Seattke) Yes it does (Guest75909) So we are back to the triangle. (DD1stLight) Also, I would be intrigued as to how they plan to shut down oil lines that require heating for them to flow. If it stops for long, it gets totally stuck. (Guest75909) The Canadians say they are not going to shut down, that they are ready, and that shutdown is really a bigger problem than they anticipate from y2k (DD1stLight) natural gas is better in pipeline but the wells themselves have problems and the gathering lines many times etc. all the EPA sensors etc. are a bit daunting (mebs) is it really 40� where crude turns to sludge, DD? (DD1stLight) depends upon the grade of the crude as to flow temp (mebs) higher grades can handle lower temps? (DD1stLight) grades of crude is a language all to itself and a bit too technical to get into here but the info is available. As a rule of thumb the lighter the grade the lower temp it can go (mebs) ummmmm... think I'll pass on crude oil grades 101 (DD1stLight) figured as much. As to how long before most figure it out, most I know that are vitally interested in y2k have not, so don't figure the masses will. Why should most know these things? It is a pretty particular set of knowledge. (Gray_Seattke) So, how bad do you think things will get DD1? (DD1stLight) Worse than I can imagine but DO NOT see this as an 'end'. Big change, yes, but such is the norm in historical perspective. The cumulative errors are going to not be figurable as to timing and effect, just a general curve is best I can get. If the NCIC computer's problems that started this summer are any indication it could be worse than we think. By the way, NCIC = national criminal information computer = the FBI (Rodig) So do you think we will see oil shortages before January? (DD1stLight) Yes, from people topping off their tanks. Well, I hate to leave good company but I do have to sleep some. (Ryker) DD, appreciate your presence tonight. It's been an eye opener for sure.. (mebs) Sure was nice meeting you, DD (DD1stLight) Thank you, you are all most kind. DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion and informational exchange list. Proselyzting propagandic screeds are not allowed. 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