-Caveat Lector- Is this a probable SA future? ------------ November 10, 1999 Haiti's Paralysis Spreads as U.S. Troops Pack Up By DAVID GONZALEZ ORT-AU-PRINCE, Haiti -- Five years after an American-led force of 20,000 troops invaded this island and restored constitutional rule, the Haitian people are entering a new and uncertain era. While crime, insecurity and a crumbling infrastructure continue to threaten residents, the Haitian government has been virtually paralyzed for more than two years. Now, the last of the regular American military presence in the capital is set to end in January, with the 400 troops to be replaced by shifts of reservists on short-term training missions throughout the country. The New York Times American regular troops are to leave Port-au-Prince in January. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---- That is yet another blow for a country that has made dishearteningly little progress despite high expectations -- perhaps unrealistic -- since the invasion. By the end of this year, police trainers and human rights monitors from the United Nations and the Organization of American States are also to leave, although United Nations officials hope to maintain a smaller mission. After Jean-Bertrand Aristide, then a radical Roman Catholic priest, was elected in 1990 as Haiti's first democratically chosen president in decades, an army-led coup drove him into exile in 1991. After three years of repression, he was restored to power in a negotiated settlement backed by an American-led occupation. The current president, Ren� Pr�val, was his hand-picked successor, but Aristide, who resigned from the priesthood in 1994, remains Haiti's leading political figure and is expected to run again next year. The American military's role in Haiti has gone from ensuring security to carrying out the kind of work that brings tangible relief to the residents of the hemisphere's poorest nation -- providing free medical care, repairing wells and building schools. While thousands of Haitians have benefited from this assistance, countless more have taken psychological comfort from the mere presence of the American troops. On a recent day, An�s Anis came home from her factory job to find an American soldier sitting behind his M-60 machine gun atop a Humvee while another paced the side of her hilly dirt street. She said she welcomed those silent sentries. "We're happy to see them," she said. "If something happens now, we could call on them. Otherwise, we have nothing at all to protect us." But the soldiers were not there to bring peace to her neighborhood. They had only come to secure the area while dozens of American sailors painted a local schoolhouse. Like Ms. Anis, many Haitians hoped that the intervention would solve day-to-day problems. The departing forces leave behind a nation that is still trying to create a democratic, functioning state. The Haitian Army was disbanded but not disarmed, contributing to an increase in street and drug crimes. While a new police force struggles to enforce the law, a dysfunctional judiciary has hampered its efforts. People and cars crowd the streets in midday, but few people venture out very early or late, lest they become targets for bandits. Foreign investment has been a trickle. With unemployment hovering at 60 percent, factory owners have been closing up as clients shift orders to nations with equally cheap labor but more stability. With regularity, residents in some neighborhoods vent their frustration and try to get the government's attention by hauling tires and trash into the street and setting up flaming roadblocks. It has hardly helped. The government itself has been virtually paralyzed since 1997 while Pr�val fought with his opposition in Parliament over his choice for prime minister. He finally appointed a de facto prime minister earlier this year when the Parliament's term ended, leaving the nation without a functioning legislature. Throughout the standoff, the government failed to pass either a budget or laws that would have brought $500 million in international aid to shore up its crumbling infrastructure and reduce suffering. Legislative elections have been pushed back from December of this year to March 19, prompting fears of campaign fraud or violence. International observers and diplomats have accused supporters of Aristide of trying to wrest control of the civilian police force to use it for their political advantage. Recently, a daylong voter education event sponsored by the national electoral council was disrupted by hecklers. The governmental paralysis has disappointed both Haitians and other countries, which are coming to realize that they also had unrealistic expectations. Decades of dictatorship under Fran�ois (Papa Doc) Duvalier and his son, Jean-Claude, left the country with scant experience with democratic rule. Now, as Haiti continues the transition to democracy that it began when Duvalier rule ended in 1986, other nations say that they are willing to help but that the Haitian people must take the initiative. "The real challenge is for Haitians to come together and address their past so they can come up with answers that will help them create their future," said the American ambassador, Timothy Carney. "The political culture has got to change." The years since the intervention have brought some improvements. The United States, working through private contractors and nongovernmental organizations, has provided $300 million for health care, education and judicial reform. Inflation has been reduced to single-digit figures, and the currency is stable. Most important, the leaders of a coup that had ousted Aristide and ushered in years of repression were removed. Diplomats say the nation's human rights record has improved and individual freedoms have grown. The formation of the Haitian National Police from 5,300 mostly raw recruits has also been seen as a positive development, although the force is hampered by insufficient resources and inexperienced mid-level commanders. Since its inception three years ago, more than 800 officers have been dismissed for offenses ranging from corruption to human rights violations. Yet even that is seen as evidence that it is willing to ensure its integrity by rooting out malfeasance. "On the human rights side, clearly a number of things have improved," said Colin Granderson, the executive director of the United Nations/Organization of American States International Civilian Mission in Haiti. "There is an emphasis on accountability, which was unheard of before. Serious human rights violations are no longer a policy of the authorities." But with every advance there have been setbacks that make Haiti, in the words of one diplomat, "a country of push-pull doors." While the police have been trying to enforce the law, they have been stymied by an inept and backlogged judiciary: about 80 percent of all Haitian prisoners are awaiting trial. A school supported by international donors has been training judges, and the government recently increased judges' salaries to make them less susceptible to bribes. But some feel that the reforms did not address the fundamental flaw. "The problem is we're still functioning with an old justice system we inherited from the days of the military dictatorship," said Prime Minister Jacques-�douard Alexis. He added that despite the obstacles, the administration was able to carry out some programs. Land reform has reduced supply costs for farmers. Cooperatives have been established, he said. And while the pace has been slow, the government is privatizing the operations of ports and the airport. But much more could have been accomplished had it not been for the paralysis that overtook the government shortly after the 1997 Parliamentary elections. Members of the opposition, the Organization of People in Struggle, accused the governing Lavalas Party of fraud. For two years, they blocked Pr�val's choice for Prime Minister, and accomplished little else, said diplomats and international officials. The deadlock has frozen $500 million in loans from the Interamerican Development Bank, the World Bank and other institutions. "A lot of that money is going to be lost," Granderson said. "That money is not going to be held for Haitians until they make up their minds that they're ready to use it. The window is closing." The fatigue felt by donors is shared by ordinary Haitians. Craters filled with mud and putrid sewage cover long stretches of the National Highway, which runs past the sprawling slums of Cit� Soleil. "This is the government's problem," said Isra�l Domones, on a recent day after he hit a hole and the bottom of his tractor-trailer, filled with sacks of flour, fell out, causing a huge traffic jam. "The water is deep and I did not see how big the hole was. The road is stuck. The country is stuck." When the Americans first invaded Haiti in 1915, they stayed long enough to build up the country's infrastructure. This time, their focus has been on aid, like the free clinics where hundreds of Haitians line up for hours to receive medical care. The military has also built many schools and repaired wells. The American soldiers speak enthusiastically about their mission, but they also admit that the nation's impoverished social conditions can seem overwhelming. "Do they need roads or water now, or do they need education?" said Lt. Comdr. Joseph Larry of the Navy, the American military support group's chief engineer. "It's a tough nut to crack as to what Haiti needs more of." There is also little time remaining for elections, which are seen as the only way out of the government's paralysis. "People are clamoring for elections to take place as soon as possible so we can get back to a government of parliamentary normalcy," Alexis said. "Democracy cannot be decreed. It can only be built." With only four months to go, the logistical obstacles are daunting in a country where phone lines, electricity and other basics are unreliable. Some diplomats and Haitians fear that the elections could be delayed again, possibly combined with the presidential elections scheduled for next November. They say supporters of Aristide favor that possibility, hoping to use his coattails to win seats in Parliament. Diplomats and international observers also worry about reports of intimidation by Aristide supporters and reports they they are trying to gain control of the police. Yvon Neptune, a spokesman for Aristide's party, denied those accusations. "We hope the election schedule is going to be kept," he said. Much is at stake in the coming elections, and not just the return of a functioning, daily government. The country is at a point where it is being urged to find a national consensus on how government can work for all sectors of Haitian society. "The government itself has been the situation, in their total lack of management, vision and honesty," said Georges Sassine, an apparel factory owner and vice president of the Association of Haitian Industries. "You feel there are 200 different governments and within each branch you have sub-branches and they all go their separate ways. I'm not going to call it anarchy. Yet." He spoke inside his vast, empty factory, where he had just laid off 260 workers. While the government has been paralyzed, orders from the United States dried up. In the last two months, 22 factories have closed, leaving nearly 5,000 people jobless, he said. Some people have done well, including those who have taken advantage of government inaction and desperate poverty to make fast money in contraband, he said. But most are still waiting. "Haiti has not learned there is no individual salvation," Sassine said. "If you're in a sinking boat and you jump out, are you really saved? It's either everybody gets saved or nobody does." http://www.nytimes.com/library/world/americas/111099haiti-outlook.html (There was an old SA joke that the way to solve our problems was to declare war on america..then when they invaded they could solve our problems. the retort was what would happen if South Africa won? 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