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Storm Warnings for the Sun

Government Sets Scale for Disrupting Explosions in 2000

By Paul Recer The Associated Press

W A S H I N G T O N, Nov. 10   The sun will greet the new millennium by
turning angry, erupting into the most active part of its 11-year cycle
with outbursts of energy that can threaten satellites, electrical power
and spacewalking astronauts.

Officials at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said
today the approaching solar storm could be more destructive than
previous cycles because the Earth has more power grids and satellites
that might be affected.

"There are bigger power grids, drawing more power now so the power
companies are more vulnerable," said D. James Baker, the NOAA
administrator.

There are also 600 satellites, more than ever in history, that also
might be affected, said Baker.  This year, though, the power companies
and satellite operators will be better prepared than ever, he said.

Warning Satellites on Watch

Two satellites, operated by NOAA, NASA and the Air Force, are positioned
in orbit to warn about hazardous energy bursts from the sun.

One satellite, orbiting a million miles from Earth, will detect a rise
in charged solar particles and give an hour's warning.

Baker said that will be enough time for power companies to protect their
electrical grids.

Satellite operators can protect orbiting equipment by turning off
circuits to prevent shorts, by closing solar panels, or by turning away
from the wave of energy. He said operators are also prepared for "ghost
signals," spurious electronic surges that may prompt the satellite to
take an unexpected action.

Head Start for Astronauts

The hour's warning also would allow spacewalking astronauts to seek the
safety of the shuttle or the space station.

Baker said that NOAA also has created a new scale to precisely describe
the intensity of solar storms. He said the new values "are the Richter
scales of space weather."

The scales will predict the intensity of three types of energy eruptions
from the sun: geomagnetic, radiation and radio storms.

For geomagnetic storms, caused by ejections of charged masses from the
corona of the sun, there is a scale of G1 to G5. The strongest, G5,
warns of electromagnetic energy powerful enough to knock out power
grids, disable satellites and cause auroras, the so-called northern
lights, to be visible as far south as the equator.

>From Mild to Wild

For radiation storms, caused by bursts of protons and neutrons, the
scale is from S5, the strongest, to S1. An S5 storm would be powerful
enough to kill spacewalking astronauts, disrupt communications, cause
memory losses in satellites and even disrupt navigation signals.

For radio storms, caused by bursts of radio frequency energy from the
sun, the scale is from R5, the strongest, to R1. An R5 storm could cause
a blackout of high frequency radio signals on the sunlit side of the
Earth and disrupt low frequency navigation signals for hours.

The sun goes through an 11-year cycle, building up energy outbursts
until it reaches what is called solar max. Baker said the solar activity
is building now and should peak next year and then tail off .  During
the last solar max, in 1989, a major geomagnetic storm sent a power
surge through electrical lines, burning out switches and transformers
and causing an extended blackout in Quebec. The same storm also knocked
out some Defense Department satellites, said Baker.

Pager Outage Shows Effects

A solar storm last year was blamed for the loss of a communications
satellite that put 40 million pagers and phones out of business, Baker
said.

He said the approaching solar max should be only "average," about like
the one in 1989. But this time, he said, most power companies and
satellite operators are ready.

"They are better prepared now," said Baker. "If they get a warning, they
are ready to act. An hour's warning is enough for the power guys."   The
companies can reroute and reduce power, even go to a partial brown out
to absorb any surge of energy from the sun, he said.

 Copyright 1999 The Associated Press



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