-Caveat Lector- WJPBR Email News List [EMAIL PROTECTED] Peace at any cost is a prelude to war! STRATFOR.COM Global Intelligence Update November 12, 1999 Russia Unleashes Final Offensive on Chechnya Summary After weeks of demanding that they alone be allowed to determine the course of the 2 and a half month Chechen conflict, Russia's military leadership is suddenly indicating that it is willing to shorten the war. On its face, it appears that the military is capitulating to intense domestic pressure. But the military will in fact use the calls for negotiations as cover for an intensified offensive. Winter is setting in. The Russian Army is strained. And it is now poised to seize victory quickly, most likely leveling the capital, Grozny. Analysis Defense Minister Igor Sergeyev told the Interfax news agency on Nov. 11 that the Russian offensive in Chechnya might be over by the end of the year. Shortly after, Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov told reporters that the Russian government was eager to end the conflict quickly and "start the process for a political settlement." Until now, the Russian military has very publicly insisted that it be allowed to run the war its way -- and complained bitterly at even the hint of interference from civilians. Both men's comments contrasted sharply with a Nov. 10 statement by Gen. Viktor Kazanstev that the conflict could continue for as long as three years -- unless the full might of the military was unleashed, in which case the war would take one week. But the latest turn of events does not in fact point toward negotiations between Moscow and Grozny, as Western governments are increasingly demanding. Both Russia's military and civilian politicians have said that the only successful resolution is the reclamation of Chechnya. Even leftist political leader Grigory Yavlinsky, the harshest critic of the campaign, has demanded that the rebels lay down their weapons before any peace talks begin. As the rebels are unlikely to do this, there is little danger of this sort of political solution. Even though Russian forces are enjoying a vast advantage over the rebels, internal and external pressures are mounting to bring a quick end to the conflict. The Russian military has Grozny in a state of siege, subject to air, rocket and artillery attacks. Novye Investia reports as many as 100,000 Russian troops are deployed in the breakaway republic, many occupying the Terek range above Grozny, and surrounding Chechnya's second largest city, Gudermes. Some of this military advantage will disappear with the onset of winter. Some of Russia's front-line aircraft -- such as the Su-25 and Su-24 warplanes, and the MI-25 attack helicopters -- are not well-suited for winter sorties. In addition, a long, cold winter siege is both expensive for the army and hard on personnel. These concerns argue for pushing the military campaign forward, and soon. Politically, the war's popularity is waning in Russia and it is increasingly time to find and claim victory. The chief sponsor of the war, Prime Minister Putin, has been buoyed by the conflict, which remains relatively casualty-free. Putin's popularity among voters has reached a record level. The private Public Opinion Foundation reports 29 percent of voters intend to vote for Putin in the presidential election, Agence France Press reported Nov. 3. Putin does not want to see the reputation of his war tarnished. Yet on the cusp of Duma elections, public opinion may be turning. Though political polling in Russia is often unreliable, only a third of Russians surveyed in a recent poll said that they believed their forces would win the conflict. In another poll, two-thirds of Russians said that they were concerned or "ashamed" about the conflict, the London Guardian reported Nov. 11. Civilian politicians in Moscow are also growing squeamish about Western calls for negotiations with the rebels. Alarmed at civilian deaths and the flow of refugees, the European Union is increasing pressure on Russia to halt. The Europeans in turn are pressuring the United States to confront Russia. State Department spokesman James Rubin accused Russia on Nov. 10 of violating the Geneva conventions. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) is reportedly planning to force the issue with Russia at an upcoming summit in Istanbul, Turkey on Nov. 17. More than mere criticism, politicians in Moscow are worried about the eventual impact on Western investment and loans. But there is no way that the Russian military will let politicians snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. [ http://www.stratfor.com/cis/commentary/c9911061515.htm ] In advance of any kind of political settlement, the military is likely to push forward -- decisively -- to secure its gains and grab as much of Chechnya as possible. The military is eager to claim the victory it was denied in 1996 when one of their own, Gen. Alexander Lebed, arrived for truce negotiations; the generals are not about to let politics interfere in Grozny this time. Playing the leading role in Russia's foreign policy, the military-security apparatus is equally disinterested in how this all plays in the West. The military is now likely to break out of its combination of siege and air strikes to unleash a renewed offensive against three targets: the cities of Gudermes, Grozny and Bamut. The second-largest city in Chechnya, Gudermes is surrounded and troops are reportedly set to occupy the city. Tanks are now within range of Grozny, according to the military. And 200 tanks are reported in the area of Bamut. Apparently fearing a new offensive, President Aslan Maskhadov, has intensified calls for talks. >From there, Russian forces could easily push remaining rebels into the southern mountains, isolating them in the winter and picking them off as opportunities allow. This would also easily set the stage for eventual Russian probing -- if necessary -- along the Georgian border. Instead of peace, renewed war is in the offing. (c) 1999, Stratfor, Inc. ____________________ **COPYRIGHT NOTICE** In accordance with Title 17 U. S. C. Section 107, any copyrighted work in this message is distributed under fair use without profit or payment to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for nonprofit research and educational purposes only.[Ref. http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml ] DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion and informational exchange list. Proselyzting propagandic screeds are not allowed. Substance�not soapboxing! These are sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory', with its many half-truths, misdirections and outright frauds is used politically by different groups with major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought. That being said, CTRL gives no endorsement to the validity of posts, and always suggests to readers; be wary of what you read. CTRL gives no credeence to Holocaust denial and nazi's need not apply. Let us please be civil and as always, Caveat Lector. ======================================================================== Archives Available at: http://home.ease.lsoft.com/archives/CTRL.html http:[EMAIL PROTECTED]/ ======================================================================== To subscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SUBSCRIBE CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] To UNsubscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SIGNOFF CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] Om
