-Caveat Lector- >From CANOE, http://www.canoe.ca/CalgaryNews/906_n2.html - November 28, 1999 Fuse lit on hi-tech powderkeg New book by Sun's Margolis details world's most dangerous flashpoint By PAUL JACKSON -- Calgary Sun Canada's top foreign correspondent believes the flashpoint for the start of a nuclear war is the remote province of Kashmir. And if -- when -- India and Pakistan start hitting the nuclear buttons, there will be 100 million dead and injured and the entire planet will be contaminated. "There'll be nuclear dust falling in Calgary," says Eric Margolis, who explains his contentions in a new book, War at the Top of the World: The Clash for Mastery of Asia (Key Porter Books, $29.95). Margolis' work appears regularly in such newspapers as the New York Times, Wall Street Journal and International Herald Tribune, and, of course, he appears in the Sunday Sun every week. Not for nothing is he the envy of every foreign correspondent and would-be foreign correspondent. Though his exploits are legendary -- he's dodged bullets and bombs on a regular basis -- he's affable and charming when he sits down for a chat. If there is any scar-tissue from adventures in the ditches and dikes of the world's hotspots, it doesn't show. When I tell Margolis few people in the West know anything about the dispute between India and Pakistan over Kashmir, he replies: "There's a Roman saying that war teaches geography. Very few people knew much about the Balkans until war broke out there in 1991-92." Since then the ramifications of the breakup of Yugoslavia have dominated headlines month after month and year after year. The NATO assault on Serbian aggression in Kosovo matched the campaign to drive Saddam Hussein's troops out of Saudi Arabia. As Margolis details his gripping scenario -- he says his book is a primer or a roadmap to south Asia -- he points out the region is the second-largest English-speaking area in the world and by 2010, its population will surpass that of China. And that's where another wrinkle comes into the picture, because India and China are in a race for superpower supremacy and both now have nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles to deliver them. No wonder Margolis thinks we should be on the edge of our seats and biting our nails over the region. Yet, most of us are ignorant of what is building up and we're in for a rude awakening. Especially since the scenario is moving so quickly. In 1998, both India and Pakistan shocked the world when they conducted nuclear tests. This year both tested medium-range weapons. Margolis believes if India launches a conventional attack, Pakistan will have to go nuclear because its own conventional forces will be so overwhelmed. If this seems alarmist, remember NATO stills hold a similar first-strike nuclear policy. "The Central Intelligence Agency has already documented the confrontation between India and Pakistan over Kashmir is the world's most dangerous dispute, and has assessed a 'high' rating as to the probability of a nuclear war breaking out there." "With only three minutes warning of a missile launch by either side, it's a hair-trigger situation. There will simply be no time for either side to have second thoughts about what may be happening and how to respond to it." That the conflict is escalating with long-range planning is also evidenced by India's determination to build submarines with the capability of launching nuclear-tipped missiles. Peace seems to be the last thing on India's mind. But then, with China now being India's principal enemy, and flexing its muscles, India can hardly remain calm. Into this potent mix Margolis throws in Russia, which also has historic interests in the area, and though bankrupt, still wants to be seen as a global power. Being bankrupt, and with a military in disarray, Moscow would also be tempted to wield power through its arsenal of nuclear weapons. Margolis' book is as terrifying as any doomsday movie and as fascinating as any A&E or PBS documentary. You finish it wondering how on earth we are going to get out of this crisis. Probably not unscathed. -- Dan S DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion and informational exchange list. Proselyzting propagandic screeds are not allowed. Substance—not soapboxing! These are sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory', with its many half-truths, misdirections and outright frauds is used politically by different groups with major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought. 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