STRATFOR.COM's Global Intelligence Update - December 7, 1999 By The Internet's Most Intelligent Source of International News & Analysis http://www.stratfor.com/ _________________________________________ WHAT'S GOING ON IN YOUR WORLD? China: the Wild Card in Taiwan's Election http://www.stratfor.com/asia/commentary/m9912062245.htm Gadhafi's African Influence Attracts Europe http://www.stratfor.com/MEAF/commentary/m9912062205.htm FIND OUT AT http://www.stratfor.com/ __________________________________________ STRATFOR.COM Global Intelligence Update December 7, 1999 Yeltsin Recovers - Long Enough to Ask for China's Support Summary On Dec. 6, the government of Russian President Boris Yeltsin announced that he had recovered enough from a bout of pneumonia to hold a long-awaited informal summit with Chinese President Jiang Zemin in Beijing. The president's sudden recovery and the summit coincide with the intensification of Russian military operations in Chechnya, particularly a new ultimatum to the people of Grozny. Russia is making a final bid to gain international political support in anticipation of a renewed offensive against Grozny. Analysis Russian President Boris Yeltsin was released from the hospital Dec. 6 following a week-long stay for a respiratory infection. Following his release, the Kremlin announced that Yeltsin will attend an informal summit with Chinese President Jiang Zemin in Beijing December 8-10. The meeting between the two leaders has largely been ignored by the West but widely anticipated both in Russia and China. And throughout the autumn it has been repeatedly and inexplicably postponed. The sudden visit by Yeltsin to Beijing is not likely to be a mere coincidence. Indeed, it appears to be an attempt by Russia to guarantee political backing from China for what it is about to do: make a concerted and unpopular push in the conflict in Chechnya. The announcement of the summit came as the Russian military issued an ultimatum to civilians and rebels alike in Grozny, the Chechen capital, warning that if they fail to leave by Dec. 11 they will be "annihilated with air and artillery bombardments." Yeltsin's visit to China suggests urgency. It has been postponed several times this year. He has canceled or postponed other international trips, such as the one to Japan, which implies the importance Moscow places on China's support. The Russian Duma elections are just two weeks away, and stories of Russian casualties have leaked out of Chechnya. Russia is likely concerned that its apparent intention to flatten Grozny will trigger a backlash from Islamic fundamentalists, particularly terrorist organizations. Opposition to the war is growing among Islamic nations, unconvinced by Moscow's diplomatic campaign to emphasize that the rebels are terrorists and that religion has nothing to do with the conflict. Fundamentalist clerics in Egypt are calling for a boycott of Russia. The Organization of the Islamic Conference has sent a delegation to Moscow and called for a peaceful solution to the war in Chechnya. If Russia and China share a worry, it is the prospect of increased terrorism and separatism in Central Asia. Moscow is also likely to try to enlist China's support during what will surely be an even more trying economic period. Because of the war in Chechnya, the West has threatened to withhold the next disbursement of International Monetary Fund (IMF) loans. Without the $640 million, Russia cannot pay off previous loans ( http://www.stratfor.com/cis/commentary/c9912020015.htm ). More important, if Russia defaults, it stands to lose the future confidence of foreign investors. The Russian government may be warning Beijing that it will forego the money to wage the war in Chechnya and is telling the Chinese government to brace itself for economic turmoil. Or Moscow may be trying to signal the Chinese leadership that economic ties will continue - regardless of what the West and the IMF do. On Dec. 1, Russian oil giant Yukos signed a deal with China that will double the amount of exported Russian oil. ITAR-Tass reported that Yeltsin and Jiang will discuss a proposed gas pipeline, which would bring Russia $2 billion to $3 billion annually. Like Moscow, Beijing does not want to see the West continue to intervene in internal separatist struggles. Russia appears to be engaged in a broad effort to shore up international political and economic ties in advance of a renewed assault on Grozny. Until recently, Yeltsin has been too ill to talk to visiting dignitaries. But Yeltsin rose from his sickbed to meet with Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma - and offered to restructure Ukraine's $1.8 billion debt for Russian gas. Yeltsin is also scheduled to sign the treaty for Russia-Belarus unification before heading to China. As well, Moscow has recently reinforced ties with India. This meeting between Yeltsin and Jiang is only a precursor to re- defining the broader relationship between Russia and China. The real strategic relationship between the two nations will most likely be shaped in January at a formal summit, which will include Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. Right now, the internal pressure to deal swiftly with Chechnya is strong. Russia has delivered an ultimatum and appears bent on solving the problem once and for all. In courting China, Russia is seeking support in advance of international economic and political backlash. (c) 1999, Stratfor, Inc. http://www.stratfor.com/ __________________________________________ ALSO ON STRATFOR.COM Be sure to read our four-part series, Russia 2000. http://www.stratfor.com/CIS/countries/Russia/russia2000/russsia2000.htm Have you seen our new homepage? http://www.stratfor.com/ __________________________________________________ SUBSCRIBE to FREE, DAILY GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE UPDATES by clicking on http://www.stratfor.com/services/giu/subscribe.asp UNSUBSCRIBE FROM THE GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE UPDATES (GIU) http://www.stratfor.com/services/giu/subscribe.asp or send your name, title, organization, address, phone number, and e-mail to [EMAIL PROTECTED] ___________________________________________________ STRATFOR.COM 504 Lavaca, Suite 1100 Austin, TX 78701 Phone: 512-583-5000 Fax: 512-583-5025 Internet: http://www.stratfor.com/ Email: [EMAIL PROTECTED] ___________________________________________________
