-Caveat Lector-

ISSUE 1661 Sunday 12 December 1999

  Russians in US to avert New Year nuclear war
By James Langton in New York


A RUSSIAN delegation will arrive at one of America's top secret military
bases this week in an attempt to ensure that the Millennium does not herald
nuclear Armageddon.
The Pentagon has made the unprecedented decision of allowing Russian military
experts to observe its intercontinental ballistic missile monitoring centre
buried deep in the Rocky Mountains on New Year's Eve.

America fears that Russia's antiquated computers could fall victim to the
Millennium bug and either falsely register an attack by missiles from the
United States and its allies or, worse, accidentally launch one of its own
warheads.

Even with the end of the Cold War, the former communist giant still has about
2,000 missiles ready to launch at a moment's notice - as President Yeltsin
warned America last week in response to Bill Clinton's criticism of the
Russian bombardment of Chechnya.

If the Kremlin's own early warning systems collapse at midnight on December
31, it is hoped the delegation will assure Moscow that America's missiles are
still in their silos.

The Russians will be observing the joint US and Canadian Norad (North
American Aerospace Defence Command) space and air defence command system
buried deep inside Cheyenne Mountain near Denver, Colorado.

They will not be allowed inside the highly classified centre, which is
protected from nuclear blasts by millions of tons of granite and thick steel
doors. Instead, America has hastily constructed a temporary "Centre for
Strategic Stability and Y2K" at a US Air Force base 10 miles away.

"The concern is that satellite systems and radar might have problems and
cause Russia to go blind," said Major Mike Birmingham, a spokesman for US
Space Command, which runs Norad.

The Millennium bug is caused by old computers wrongly reading the year 2000
as 1900. The US military has been working on the problem since a test in 1993
briefly caused Norad to shutdown. The Pentagon is now confident that its
systems will work on January 1.

But Russia's turbulent politics and economic woes mean that less work has
been done there. A collapse of the Russian military command system could be
highly dangerous and there are fears that electrical problems could cause
some missiles to catch fire in their silos. Under an agreement signed last
month, up to 20 Russians will spend two weeks sharing data from Norad
headquarters with their American counterparts. Using a hot line, they will be
able to act as Moscow's eyes and ears if things should go wrong back home.

At its heart are steel rooms, including a 10-man command centre. It is
approached through a tunnel in the side of the mountain, which ends after a
third of a mile in 25-ton steel doors designed to withstand a direct blast.

US officials know only too well the possibility of accidental catastrophe. In
1980, monitoring screens apparently showed 2,200 nuclear missiles from the
former Soviet Union streaking towards America.

As B-52 bomber crews prepared to head into Russia, senior advisers were one
minute from advising President Jimmy Carter to launch a retaliatory strike
when they realised that the attack was non-existent. The fault was later
traced to a computer chip costing 30p inside a Nova 840 computer, which had
wrongly started tapes for a military exercise.

Russia has also had its scares. In 1995, the routine launch of a Norwegian
weather rocket was mistaken for an incoming nuclear missile.

Some experts have called on both countries to deactivate their nuclear
weapons on New Year's Eve. But Washington has refused, arguing that if
systems did fail, the race to restore them could be even more dangerous.The
US has 2,300 missiles in a state of constant readiness. Along with Britain's
fleet of Trident nuclear submarines, they have been tested and cleared as Y2K
compliant.

The situation in Russia is much less certain. Publicly, Moscow is insisting
that its computers will not fail. But a Russian government report last August
estimated that at least half of its operating systems and all of its software
programmes would experience problems with the Millennium bug.

According to Western consultants working in Russia, the government has now
abandoned attempts to fix the problem in time and is concentrating on
emergency strategies to deal with the repercussions. The worst of these could
be a Chernobyl-style nuclear disaster that would contaminate millions with
deadly radiation.

More likely are widespread power cuts as the electricity grid fails in the
depths of the bitter Russia winter. In addition to causing thousands of
deaths, such catastrophic glitches could provoke civil unrest and further
weaken the authority of President Yeltsin.

America is so concerned about the situation that it has earmarked millions of
dollars to repatriate embassy employees and their families over Christmas and
the New Year. They will not be allowed back until the State Department has
given the all clear.

 From www.telegraph.co.uk

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