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Date sent: Wed, 15 Dec 1999 18:25:54 +0100
To: "English edition" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
From: Le Monde diplomatique <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>(r)
Subject: Heatwave hits the planet
Le Monde diplomatique
-----------------------------------------------------
December 1999
HOW TO COMBAT THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT
Heatwave hits the planet
_________________________________________________________________
Motor vehicle manufacturers are doing little to design "clean" cars,
and public transport operators - often public services - are not
proving any more responsible, although solutions are available to
reduce the fumes choking our cities. The rise in carbon dioxide
emissions from traffic, power stations and industry is exacerbating
the greenhouse effect, with the risk of climate change. At the UN
summit in Bonn in early November, more than 60 countries agreed to
ratify the 1997 Kyoto protocol before 2002. This commits the
industrialised nations to cutting their emissions of greenhouse gases.
But the US Senate still wants to stop Washington from ratifying the
protocol.
by DOMINIQUE FROMMEL *
_________________________________________________________________
This century has seen a major disruption to the natural weather cycle.
The accumulation of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere has
made the average global temperature rise as fast in the last 100 years
as in the previous 10,000. But the greenhouse effect is nevertheless
essential, since without it, the temperature at the Earth's surface
would fall below 0oC. It is caused by the presence in the atmosphere
of water vapour and certain gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and
methane. These gases form a filter allowing certain light rays through
while at the same time keeping back some of the solar radiation that
is reflected by the Earth's surface. It is this screening effect that
gives the planet a temperature conducive to life.
No one any longer seriously disputes that man is responsible for the
extraordinary rise in the Earth's temperature. We know that population
growth and industry, both entailing the burning of fossil fuels, are
behind the atmosphere's higher carbon dioxide content (1). If the
"laisser faire" attitude to greenhouse gas emissions is allowed to
continue in the next century, the temperature could rise by some 1o C
to 3.5o C, compared to 0.5o C in the 20th century.
People have become increasingly aware of ecological issues since the
first World Conference on the Environment in 1972. Once a luxury only
the rich countries could afford, preventing climatic risk has become
one of the major ingredients in sustainable development. This is not
to say that there is not still much confusion and misunderstanding
about the "greenhouse effect", for all its media prominence. Although
this fundamental problem is of crucial importance to the man in the
street, he feels completely at a loss about it, leaving the public
debate and decision-making responsibility to the experts and
politicians. But to take part in the debate, all we need do is bear in
mind two or three basic questions. What are the consequences of rising
temperatures for ecosystems and health, is there any way of mitigating
their effects, and if so, what?
Scientists are not yet able to forecast with any accuracy whether, and
to what extent, the climate will change in any particular part of the
world. There is, therefore, still some uncertainty about the scale of
the warming that will take place in the 21st century. What we can say
is that the disturbances will not be uniform across the globe. They
will result in a worsening of extreme weather conditions, and while
they will affect primarily the most vulnerable populations, no-one
will be spared.
Given that CO2 emissions are rising, the most likely scenario is not
difficult to imagine: the greenhouse effect will intensify, the world
temperature will rise, the water cycle will speed up, evaporation will
be greater, the atmosphere's water vapour content will be higher. The
screening effect will increase, with higher rainfall on all
continents. Melting polar ice caps will result in rising sea levels,
putting coastal areas at risk, with the salination of deltas and
flooding of lowlands and archipelagos. Recurrent droughts will reduce
the range and variety of plant species and exacerbate the shortage of
drinking water. On top of all these imbalances, there will be a
greater frequency of natural disasters: cyclones, floods, forest fires
and landslides (2).
Remember how, in 1997-98, the El Ni�o phenomenon caused disruption and
damage of an intensity previously unknown in the circumpacific belt.
Some ecosystems may indeed adapt to climate change, but it will be at
the cost of radical adjustments to themselves, again with serious
consequences. CO2 acts as a fertiliser and in high concentrations
encourages the growth of the most vigorous plant species at the
expense of the weaker ones. The result is reduced biological diversity
(3). The effect of the temperature changes on human health has been
the subject of many multidisciplinary analyses and forecasts, but the
findings are not at first sight spectacular, since human beings are so
very adaptable. Of course, waves of heat or cold are accompanied by
peaks of mortality and, in the countries of the South, cyclones,
floods and volcanic eruptions take a heavy toll. We also know that
higher intensities of ultraviolet rays greatly increase the risk of
skin cancer and affect the immune system (4). Moreover, the suspended
particulates (aerosols) released by burning fossil fuels weaken the
respiratory apparatus and are the source of crippling diseases.
Between 1964 and 1990, for instance, the prevalence of asthma doubled
both in Britain and Australia and in East Africa.
Spread of infectious diseases
But the greatest danger lies in man's dependence on his environment.
Migration, the over-concentration of human populations in cities,
dwindling aquifer reserves, pollution and poverty have always created
conditions favourable to the spread of infectious micro-organisms. But
the ability of many parasite- and virus-carrying insects and rodents
to reproduce and spread disease depends on temperature and
environmental humidity. In other words, even a modest rise in
temperature gives the green light for the spread of many agents that
are pathogenic to humans and animals alike.
Thus, such parasitic diseases as malaria, schistosomiasis and sleeping
sickness, or viral infections like dengue fever, certain forms of
encephalitis and haemorrhagic fevers, have gained ground in recent
years. Either they have reappeared in places where they had been wiped
out, or they are now found in areas that had previously been spared.
Over the last ten years, malaria has crossed the 1,800 metre mark in
East Africa and Madagascar - an altitude it never used to pass.
Projections for the year 2050 show that by then malaria will threaten
three billion human beings. Another cause for concern is that between
1955 and 1970 only nine countries were affected by arbovirus diseases,
which are transmitted mainly by mosquitoes. In 1996 a further 28 were
affected.
In the same way, the number of water-borne diseases is growing. The
warming of fresh water is encouraging bacteria to breed. The warming
of salt water, especially when enriched with human effluents, allows
phytoplanctons, breeding grounds for the cholera bacillus, to
reproduce at a faster rate. Since 1960, cholera had almost disappeared
from Latin America, but it claimed 1,368,053 victims between 1991 and
1996. At the same time, new infections are springing up or spilling
over far from the ecological niches where they were formerly confined
(5). As recent examples have shown, despite the advances made,
medicine remains helpless in the face of the explosion of many
unexpected diseases. The 21st century could see the epidemiology of
infectious diseases, which even today are responsible for nearly one
third of all deaths, take on a new complexion, especially with the
spread of zoonoses - infections transmissible from vertebrate animals
to man and vice versa. It is revealing that the Americans, who are
seldom lagging behind in strategy, have already launched a new medical
journal entitled Emerging Infectious Diseases (6).
Some countries, like a number of United Nations agencies - the World
Health Organisation and the World Meteorological Organisation in
particular - are aware of the threat (7). They are funding research
into climatology, organising regular meetings of experts, and have
paved the way for agreements to limit greenhouse gas emissions.
However, the problem extends beyond the regulation and transfer of the
"right to pollute". The commitments given at the Kyoto conference in
1997, whereby the industrialised countries would cut emissions of the
main greenhouse gases by 5.2% by 2012, were still in suspense at the
1998 Buenos Aires climate conference, if only because they were
inadequate to contain the threat. The following conference, which
concluded in Bonn on 5 November, was also modest in its outcome. True,
more than 60 countries, including those of the European Union, Japan
and New Zealand (together accounting for 41% of the greenhouse gases
produced by the industrialised nations) promised to ratify the Kyoto
Protocol in time for it to come into force before 2002 (8). But once
again the oil-producing countries tried to block the agreement and the
United States, the world's biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, is
dragging its feet by making ratification conditional on the outcome of
the next conference, to be held in The Hague in November 2000 (9).
For some years now a number of economists have come to share the
ecologists' concerns. They are calculating the value of ecosystems or
"natural assets" and assessing the price of their degradation, the
extra cost of delays in bringing in pollution-cutting measures, and
the potential profits to be gained by using new technologies. In
short, they are trying to demonstrate to industrialists the profits
they could earn from conserving natural resources. However, the
appearance of the concept of the "profitability of fighting pollution"
is not enough and, in an economy that is expressed only in terms of
trade, there is no invisible hand to guide the market towards the
greater good.
That is why apparently modest targets adopted at individual and local
level could be the way forward. Given the threat to our health, and
especially to that of our children and grandchildren, it is essential
that the precautionary principle should be invoked first and foremost.
Applying this principle means admitting our uncertainty and our
ignorance, but without making our impotence an excuse for inaction.
The other merit of the precautionary principle is that it constrains a
project's promoter, and not its opponent - whether the project is
industrial or not - to prove that the proposal is harmless to the
environment and to health.
Even more effective, no doubt, would be the introduction, even in
nursery school, of "environmental education" and the teaching of a
modern physical and human geography. If everyone is to be made aware
of our planet, such education would have to underline the
interdependence of humankind and the Earth, and stress the parallel
development of ecosystems and human life. In short, everyone needs to
be made aware, and take responsibility, well before they reach
adulthood.
_________________________________________________________________
* Research director at the Institut national de la sant� et de la
recherche m�dicale (Inserm) and scientific advisor to the Centre
international de l'enfance et de la famille (Cidef), Paris.
(1) Between now and the year 2020, population growth will be
responsible for about 50% of the increase in carbon dioxide in the
troposphere.
(2) See the series of articles by Jean-Paul Besset, "La terre se
r�chauffe", Le Monde, 26, 27 and 28 November 1997 and S. H. Schneider,
O� va le climat? Que connaissons-nous du changement climatique?,
Editions Silence, Loriol, 1996.
(3) See Ignacio Ramonet, "Taking care of the planet", and Alain
Zecchini, "Emptying the gene pool", Le Monde diplomatique, English
edition, November 1997 and October 1998 respectively.
(4) M. R. Sears, "Descriptive epidemiology of asthma", The Lancet,
London, October 1997.
(5) M. E Wilson, "Infectious diseases: an ecological perspective",
British Medical Journal, 23 December 1995. J. A. Patz, P. R. Epstein,
T. A. Burke, M. Balbus, "Global climate change and emerging infectious
diseases", Journal of the American Medical Association, 17 January
1996. See also L. Garrett, The Coming Plague, Farrar, Straus and
Giroux, New York, 1994.
(6) Published by the National Center for Infectious Diseases, GA
30333, Atlanta, US.
(7) At a ministerial meeting held at the WHO's initiative on 16 and 17
June 1999 in London, 50 European countries adopted a declaration
stating their willingness to take concrete measures to alleviate the
harmful effects of environmental degradation on health.
(8) For the protocol to come into force, it must be ratified by 55
countries representing 55% of greenhouse gas emissions. See "Momentum
to ratify Kyoto Protocol on climate change", Greenpeace press release,
Bonn, 3 November 1999.
(9) The US Senate is opposed to ratification until two conditions are
met: it must be possible to keep the commitments to cut emissions by
making unrestricted use of the market mechanism, and large developing
countries like India and China must commit themselves to cutting their
emissions (at present, only 14 of these countries have ratified the
Kyoto protocol). See Le Monde, 7-8 November 1999.
Translated by Malcolm Greenwood
_________________________________________________________________
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED � 1999 Le Monde diplomatique
<http://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/en/1999/12/?c=10envi>
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