-Caveat Lector-
Yardeni Warns Y2K Problems Still Ahead
NewsMax.com
December 27, 1999
New York--The Y2K rollover date - January 1, 2000 - is just days
ahead, and one major economist remains steadfastly pessimistic.
Edward Yardeni, chief economist for Deutsche Bank Alex. Brown,
appeared on CNBC's "Squawk Box" last week to say that the
"alarms" were not heeded for Y2K and there is no use sounding
them now.
He believes, as he has argued for the past year, that Y2K will
cause "major" problems world-wide, and will be more than a "bump
in the road" - as many Y2K pundits have suggested.
Yardeni says that Y2K will adversely effect the economy during
the first six months of 2000 and it is sure to be a Dow-buster.
In an interview with Entrepreneur magazine, published this month,
Yardeni explained why his is a Y2K skeptic:
. The federal government has stated most of their mission
critical systems have been tested and compliant. But Yardeni
complains there is no standard as to "what 'mission critical'
means." He says the feds have yet to do testing on 40 major
programs, and he can't believe, for instance the FAA can be
compliant in time.
. He chafes at the idea that Y2K problems will just be "local."
Yardeni responds to such brush offs: "My response is that that's
where we live!" Too many local problems add up to a "national
hurricane," he said.
. Yardeni has done some research and he doesn't like what he
finds. "My surveys among IT professional have found something
disturbing. Software patches from third party vendors for
so-called mission-critical programs hadn't been provided in 20
percent of cases as of September."
. Internationally Y2K could spell disaster. "I'm concerned about
the state of oil companies in Mexico and Venezuela, since they
got a very late start. Kuwait didn't seem to know it even had a
problem until last year. The Japanese got a very late start but
claim they'll be ready. I'm skeptical. The rest of Asia doesn't
look like it's in good shape. China is at the top of everyone's
list of countries likely to have Y2K failures �"
Short-term Yardeni is a bear. He advises investors to "overweight
government bonds, underweight stocks, and accumulate cash in the
portfolio." After the Y2K problems pass in 6 months Yardeni
believes such investors will be in a better position to get back
into the bull market. On CNBC, Yardeni cautioned that Y2K
problems may not be apparent in the waking hours of the New Year,
but may surface in the days and weeks after as supply, shipping
and communications problems related to Y2K surface.
>
> As Jan. 1 Draws Near, Doomsayers Reconsider
> The Apocalypse Is Still Coming--Later
>
> By Hanna Rosin
> Washington Post Staff Writer
> Monday, December 27, 1999; Page A01
>
> A year ago, Tim LaHaye and Jerry Jenkins, who have sold more
> than 10 million copies of their "Left Behind" thrillers about
> the Apocalypse, prophesied global upheaval on Jan. 1, 2000.
>
> The Y2K bug could trigger "financial meltdown," they warned
> readers on their Web site, "making it possible for the
> Antichrist or his emissaries . . . to dominate the world
> commercially until it is destroyed."
>
> But now that the hour is upon us, the prophets of doom are
> retreating.
>
<snip>
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Shalom, A Salaam Aleikum, and to all, A Good Day.
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