-Caveat Lector-
The hard facts
By Mitch Ratcliffe, ZDY2K
Opinion - January 3, 2000 -- Why didn't it happen? See my column of Thursday
to understand why Y2K wasn't a hoax, and why there a lot of people who
deserve thanks There's not much more to say, when I called Y2K almost to a
tee: No one died as a result of Y2K problems; Power stayed on, despite widely
dispersed and localized problems with computers; Embedded systems did not
fail on a large scale, and those that did were non-critical; If anything,
less developed countries proved they are less reliant on technology and, so,
avoided many problems that would have occurred in the U.S. if Americans had
ignored Y2K; Critical infrastructures operated normally, despite problems (at
this writing, the FAA's few problems have not resulted in a threat to public
safety, nor have any of the markets around the world that are open, including
the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade, experienced any
major problems).
After all the abuse and threats ladled out toward me and my family for the
past 18 months, let me just take one moment to gloat.
Gloat.
There was a moment on Saturday that brought the whole Y2K situation into
crystal clarity, when Cathy Hotka of the National Retail Federation was asked
by the press whether survivalists could return supplies they hadn't used.
"Retailers are in the business of selling things and not lending them," she
said, with remarkable credulity, considering how foolish the question
sounded.
In a nutshell, the Y2K problem has proved a non-event because business (and
government) stuck to their strengths: business as usual, with a note of
urgency in IT efforts. Overall, the two percent to seven percent of IT
budgets dedicated to Y2K repairs by corporations and government agencies was
a responsible and rational response.
The cost shouldered by large organizations was much larger, as percentage of
revenue, than what a household should have spent, because each company
shouldered a small part of the expense of removing risk from their customers'
lives. Now that the danger has passed, the survivalist who did over-spend has
to live with the mistake while the rest of us will benefit from having
calculated correctly. A little preparation went a long way.
This is not a paean to the beauty of capitalism, just to good sense. As an
investor, you take risks. As a human being, you take risks. Some folks
over-react to risk and some thrive.
>From the very beginning of this Y2K odyssey, especially since I became
convinced there was no reason to fear an apocalyptic failure or anything
approaching that, I've been enraged by the opportunists who have exaggerated
the risks of Y2K for their own profit.
Now that the realities of Y2K are plain - I needn't rehash them here, other
than to point to these stories I did for United Press International - we need
to be sure to call to account those who abused so many people, costing them
hundreds or thousands of dollars.
First, the stories about the Y2K rollover:
World prepares for Y2K
When Will Y2K Actually Strike?
Y2K off to bug-less start
Networks Pass Biggest Test; Europe Joins The Party
Asia Glides easily into 2000
Y2K: What Exactly Happened?
Y2K still silent as business begins around the world
Y2K survivalists struggle with reality
What is especially troubling is that the doomer prophets who led people
astray are already in the midst of reinventing themselves.
Gary North's Web site has been altered, and many of the loonier statements he
made there disappeared almost immediately after the rollover. North claims
his site has been hacked, but the "damage" doesn't make sense - why would
hackers wait until after the New Year and then remove only part of the
content on the site? Fortunately, there are people with accurate back-ups of
the North site to preserve the record.
Mike Adams, who has threatened to sue me again for my recent article, has
morphed Y2KNewswire from a pessimistic site to an optimistic one overnight.
Where one day there were assertions of Y2K cover-ups, the next day there were
a whole slew of stories about how Y2K has been beaten. The whole Y2KNewswire
archive of links, in which Adams inserted preposterous interpretations of
stories in the mainstream press have vanished.
Why?
Because Adams has a new site that will help people reinvent their lives -
ironically, he's suggesting that life will be rebuilt using technology. What
disingenuous crap.
Ed Yourdon, at least, has preserved his published record intact. Yet, he
refuses to admit he was wrong.
We have just one task before us: Never to forget who led people astray and
why. These opportunists, many of whom have made themselves rich with Y2K
panic-mongering, are trying to rewrite history before our eyes. Don't let
them do it.
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