-Caveat Lector- <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/"> </A> -Cui Bono?- Dave Hartley http://www.Asheville-Computer.com/dave -----Original Message----- From: Peter B. Martin [[EMAIL PROTECTED]] Sent: Sunday, January 16, 2000 12:51 PM Subject: Chechnya/Yeltsin/Putin RAMPAGE IN CHECHNYA - A SUPPLEMENTARY POLITICAL SACRIFICE The shadow government in the Kremlin, must have figured Yeltsin wasn't Y2K compliant, so they dethroned him just before the New Year. They made it as cosmetically respectable as possible and chose the date shrewdly. In the face of Y2K and terrorist threats, the resignation on New Year's eve was almost a nonevent and; thus, avoided an avalanche of media questions. The end result was to script: President Clinton and other world leaders welcomed the change as an equable transition of command and a continuation of reforms. Let them dub it what they like, historically it will be recorded as a coup d'etat. Yet, Yeltsin came very close to being the first Russian head of state in modern times to finish his term in office. What happened? Why the abrupt change? And, what next? Certainly, one of the catalysts for change was the fact that the Kremlin's party, the "Union of Rightist Forces", did not do as well as they expected in the Duma elections. While they beat the Communists Party, lead by Zyuganov, it wasn't by as comfortable a margin as they would have liked and that they expected. The final results show Unity took 24.29% and has 67 seats in the Duma while the Communists took 23.32% with 64 seats. (note: Unity still stands to gain more seats from the Independents). The Unionist Party's political platform was one of raw nationalism liberally seasoned with anti-Western sentiment and centered almost entirely on the ruthless Chechen war and how important it was to win. It was presented as a quick conquest with few losses in their ranks, but this has not been the case and that became the primary motivating factor for the changing of the guard in the Kremlin. The Kremlin and the Russian military have been involved in an extensive cover-up concerning both operations and results in the battle for Chechnya. They did a good job of keeping the lid on negative news about the war during the run up to the Duma elections, but the battle for Grozny, which is almost impossible to hide, could have enormous consequences for the next presidential election. Therefore, the Kremlin bosses decided they had to push up the election date in order to avoid recriminations against their primary political tool: the Chechnya campaign. The most providential way to do that would be to abide by the constitutional laws: get Yeltsin to resign; thus, forcing elections to take place in three months. The move would cut the risk of worsening war reports taking their toll and allow them to take advantage of the wave of enthusiasm for Prime Minister Alexandr Putin. Since Chechnya is the crux of the matter, it would appear advantageous to probe more deeply into the whys and ways of this fanatical, murderous war. For starters, you would have to be a believer in alien abduction conspiracies to believe what is coming out of the Russian press concerning this war. Even senior Interior Ministry officials admit that statistics concerning actual troop losses are only counted as dead when their bodies have been found and identified. The Russians won't allow foreign reporters into the territory, other than on official "sight-seeing" trips organized by Moscow. However, thankfully, some courageous and defiant reporters have sneaked in behind the lines and have gotten out reports; these reports are in direct conflict with the Russian line on the war. This war, being conducted by the Russian military, is fraught with the wholesale killing of civilians and refugees, the majority of which are Russian, not Chechen. These refugees were led to believe nothing would happen to them. The Ru ssians told them, night after night on television, that this was only a little clean-up action against a few rebels; consequently, they didn't try to leave until it was too late. What's worse, they were duped into staying by the Russians in hopes they would pressure the Chechen combatants out of the villages and cities. Such barbaric conduct against civilians only makes the Chechens fight with more resolve than ever before, to the eventual detriment of the Russian soldiers. The assault on Grozny is proving to be a debacle for Russian forces. The defenders are putting up very stiff resistance from their hidden bunkers and vantage points. It appears the Russian effort to take the capital is almost as uncoordinated as their first attempt (as in 1994-1996 Russian troops have been hit by their own covering mortar fire - which is an odd choice of weapon for urban warfare). They claim the Chechens are using chlorine and ammonia gas against them, yet photographs show they don't go into battle with even rudimentary gas masks. Either the reports are just disinformation, or these soldiers are downright suicidal. Strategic military errors abound. They again, are using armor, which is vulnerable to concealed anti-tank weapons in an urban battle and they are suffering heavy losses in the process. Worse, the Russians persist in using gasoline, instead of diesel powered APC vehicles, like the BMP-2, which also has the design fault of having its fuel tanks behind its rear doors. It only takes one round of an incendiary/tracer rifle bullet to set the whole vehicle afire, blocking the escape of its occupants. Snipers are proving to be as deadly accurate and expedient as before. The Russian troops have failed again to properly reconnoiter the city's defenses with Intelligence troops and are being ambushed at nearly every street corner. While the Russians have advanced on Grozny with Special Forces, their rear positions, held by ill-trained conscript troops, have proved vulnerable to counter-attacks and some towns have even been re-captured by Chechen fighters. Other Russian battlefield tactics are proving to be deficient as well. For example, they don't seem to be making much use of terrain analysis and fall victim to this negligence. They fail to take into account the strategic topography of the land they plan to defend and found themselves caught up in fog, or with their vehicles bogged down in mud. Even basic defense strategy is wanting: their trenches are often not linked, so if one flank is under attack nobody can come to their aid. After one recent battle, there were reliable reports of up to 92 Russian soldiers dead in a company of 100. Such a huge loss ratio, which would be considered a massacre or a manifest fiasco by any standard, can only be due to incompetent orders and tactics. The, not very surprising, end result is that Russian field hospitals are filling to over-flow with wounded, but medical supplies are scarce. As this was being written, a field hospital was burned up by the Chechens. Russia claims it can do what it likes in Chechnya, its justification being that it is an internal issue. I, for one, fail to see this reasoning. Chechnya is not part of Russia. There exists no Russian document that claims that Chechnya is part of Russia, so it can't be a civil war. Chechnya belongs to the Russian Federation and is just one of 21 self-governing republics of the Federation. To home in on that very point, in January of this year, Yeltsin was asked in Jerusalem about the war and answered: "It will last two more months, and then we will plant our Russian flag in Chechnya." What's more, Russia's offensive against this autonomous republic is based solely on the dubious justification that they are out to eradicate terrorism and the "Islamic menace." With such a mandate, what is to stop the Russians from future operations in such neighboring countries like Tajikistan, or Turkey for that matter? Russia is either creating a very dangerous precedent, or their real reason for attacking Chechnya lies elsewhere, for instance in the parliamentary and national elections. Making war for political reasons is hardly alien in Russia. One does not have to be cynically disposed to recognize this; one compelling event attesting to the fact occurred in Czechoslovakia. According to Andropov, the reason for the invasion of Czechoslovakia was to safeguard Soviet security and the new European order, which had emerged from what is calledthe Great Patriotic War. Moreover, the KGB has a long reputation for political manipulation. One only has to recall that KGB Special Forces assassinated the Afghan president, Hafizullah Amin, igniting the Afghanistan war. Enter Vladimir Putin; ex-lieutenant colonel in the KGB; ex-head of the Federal Security Service (FSB), successor to the KGB; expert in political espionage; the last in a long line of Yeltsin's prime ministers and the chosen heir to the Kremlin throne. To comprehend his ascension, it helps to know that the KGB has often been a stepping stone to ultimate power. A weedy, wiry, wily, stringent sort of man, known for his no-nonsense manner and efficiency. He styles himself as the White Night battling corruption. How he proceeds, with any credibility, in such a role, after granting Yeltsin, his family, and entourage immunity from criminal prosecution plus all sorts of benefits and privileges, remains to be seen. Hypocrisy, apparently, goes with the office. All this said, there is no doubt that Putin holds a commanding lead in the elections. It even looks as though there will have no opposition, a pretty convenient contingency for the Kremlin. Should he be elected, Russians can expect a return to soviet-like conditions where the state controls and regulates almost everything. It will probably be something in the line of Lenin's New Economic Policy (NEP), where a central government controls major corporations and industries and price control and exchange rates would return on a national scale. Goodbye to economic and social liberalization, hello to nationalism and an authoritarian future. As this paper was being written, a very telling occurrence took place that sheds some light on what kind of a man Putin is. On New Year's Day he made a surprise visit to the troops in Chechnya. After handing out large sheath knives as gifts, he told his men that the campaign against Chechnya: "is not simply about restoring honor and dignity to the country." Rather, "It is about how to bring about the end of the breakup of Russia." This divergent slant for the justification of the war would appear to be very threatening news to the 11 former soviet republics in the long term. Still, until the economy is put right and the military system is modernized the likelihood of further military adventures is low. Furthermore, it should be kept in mind that once elected, the necessity of killing for poll ratings will be dispensable and Putin will probably try to obtain a settlement in Chechnya. It won't be easy, but the alternative would be guerilla warfare that would go on for decades without any real control over the territory. In Yeltsin's address to the nation on his last day in office he said: "I want to ask your forgiveness, because many of our hopes have not come true, because what we thought would be easy turned out to be painfully difficult. I ask you to forgive me." From the first democratically elected leader of Russia, who subjected his people to two unnecessary wars for political reasons and allowed unimaginable corruption and diversion of much needed funds - leaving most of his population in untold poverty, his people deserve a lot more than just an apology and be asked for forgiveness. Take a bow, Mr Yeltsin, your "resignation" is another reversal of democracy for your country and a fitting legacy to your reign. Peter Martin Jan. 2000 Valprionde, France <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/">www.ctrl.org</A> DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. Proselytizing propagandic screeds are not allowed. Substance�not soap-boxing! These are sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory'�with its many half-truths, misdirections and outright frauds�is used politically by different groups with major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought. That being said, CTRL gives no endorsement to the validity of posts, and always suggests to readers; be wary of what you read. CTRL gives no credence to Holocaust denial and nazi's need not apply. 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