-Caveat Lector- <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/"> </A> -Cui Bono?- From http://www.lineone.net/express/00/01/21/features/fcolview-d.html {{<Begin>}} VIEWPOINT John Laughland on the struggle to control oil WHEN we hear the news that Russian forces have penetrated the capital of Chechnya, Grozny, we should not dismiss it as a quarrel in a faraway country of which we know nothing. The war in the Caucasus is one in which the West is heavily implicated and into which we could even get sucked militarily. It is easy enough to understand what is going on in the Caucasus. Just go and see the latest James Bond movie, The World Is Not Enough. In it, the sultry villain-heroine, Elektra - the powerful oil heiress played by the beautiful Sophie Marceau - is determined to build an oil pipeline from the capital of Azerbaijan, Baku, across Georgia and Turkey and out to the Mediterranean Sea. This part of the film is completely true. Western oil companies and the major Western governments, have made massive financial and political investments to secure a reliable source of oil. They want to reduce reliance on oil from the Gulf and on any pipeline through Russia. At present, the main oil pipeline flows through Chechnya, which is why the Russians are determined to control the province. For the past decade, the US has been working hard to bring the three Caucasus republics, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia into its orbit. It has been largely successful because it has sustained in power brutal old dictators from the Soviet era - former party bosses like Eduard Shevardnadze in Georgia and Heidar Aliev in Azerbaijan. The oil companies, meanwhile, have spent countless millions exploring for oil and gas in the Caspian Sea and preparing to construct the "safe" pipeline through Turkey. The West's key role in the Caucasus was symbolised when Bill Clinton attended the signing ceremony last November, at which the pipeline contract was sealed. Russia, which wants the oil to flow through its territory instead, sees the deal as a way of cutting its regional influence. The role of Turkey - a key American ally and Nato member - also became apparent at the weekend when the Turkish president visited Georgia, just days after the Azeri president had visited Turkey. On both occasions, the subject for discussion was how to proceed with building the pipeline through Turkey. On Saturday, President Demirel of Turkey said that it was essential to create a "stability pact" for the Caucasus region along the lines of the one the West has just created for the Balkans following the war against Yugoslavia. He did not draw the comparison with the Balkan stability pact lightly. This is the term given to the supranational agreement for governing the entire Balkans which was signed by the European Union, the United States and most of the Balkan countries themselves, once Nato troops were safely installed in Kosovo, Macedonia and Albania. What Mr Demirel is saying, therefore, is that there might need to be military intervention if the West's oil supplies are to be safeguarded. Since the Turks, the Azeris and the Georgians - and probably the Americans as well - are convinced that the purpose of the Russian campaign in Chechnya is to increase control over the whole Caucasus region, so that the Turkish pipeline is never built, this implies a potential confrontation between Nato and Russia in one of the most unstable regions in the world. It is not the first time that the possibility of a Russian-Nato confrontation in the Caucasus has been evoked. In May last year, Nato announced that it was considering Georgia for membership and the US Defence Secretary, William Cohen, visited Eduard Shevardnadze's dictatorship and called it "a model democracy". In June, the Azeri defence minister called for Nato to intervene in the war between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan has asked to be admitted as a member of Nato. Indeed, Moscow has accused the US of supporting the Chechen rebels precisely to scupper the Russian plans to secure their pipeline, while Turkey is also believed to be helping the anti-Russian militants. The problem is that if the Turks did get involved in guaranteeing the security of Georgia or Azerbaijan, then any Russian attack would be an attack on Nato as a whole. The key provision in the Washington Treaty, which is Nato's constitution, is that an attack on one Nato member will be considered an attack on all. TO MAKE matters worse, acting Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that Russia is abandoning its doctrine of not using nuclear weapons first and may well deploy nuclear weapons in the event of a conventional attack. In other words, if Nato were foolish enough to attack Russia in the way it attacked Yugoslavia, there would be a nuclear war. And such an attack is not unimaginable if Nato got sucked into defending Georgia or Azerbaijan, an incursion into a Russian sphere of influence which Russia might well deem threatening. In fact, the outcome could be rather like the explosive end of a James Bond movie - only this time it would be for real. � Express Newspapers, 2000 {{<End>}} A<>E<>R ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Integrity has no need of rules. -Albert Camus (1913-1960) + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + The only real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new landscapes but in having new eyes. -Marcel Proust + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + "Believe nothing, no matter where you read it, or who said it, no matter if I have said it, unless it agrees with your own reason and your common sense." --Buddha + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly. -Bertrand Russell + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + "Everyone has the right...to seek, receive and impart information and ideas through any media and regardless of frontiers." Universal Declaration of Human Rights + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + "Always do sober what you said you'd do drunk. That will teach you to keep your mouth shut." Ernest Hemingway + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + Forwarded as information only; no endorsement to be presumed + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. section 107, this material is distributed without charge or profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving this type of information for non-profit research and educational purposes only. <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/">www.ctrl.org</A> DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. Proselytizing propagandic screeds are not allowed. Substance�not soap-boxing! These are sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory'�with its many half-truths, misdirections and outright frauds�is used politically by different groups with major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought. That being said, CTRL gives no endorsement to the validity of posts, and always suggests to readers; be wary of what you read. CTRL gives no credence to Holocaust denial and nazi's need not apply. Let us please be civil and as always, Caveat Lector. ======================================================================== Archives Available at: http://home.ease.lsoft.com/archives/CTRL.html http:[EMAIL PROTECTED]/ ======================================================================== To subscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SUBSCRIBE CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] To UNsubscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SIGNOFF CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] Om
