-Caveat Lector-   <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/">
</A> -Cui Bono?-

from:
http://www.aci.net/kalliste/
Click Here: <A HREF="http://www.aci.net/kalliste/">The Home Page of J. Orlin
Grabbe</A>
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Federal Reserve


Greenspan's Grind


Interest rates: Up, up, and away.

This is just the beginning. Though the Federal Reserve has now raised
interest rates four times in just over six months, it is still behind the
curve. Indeed, the only plausible reason why the Fed increased rates by a
quarter rather than half a point yesterday is that a larger increase might
have encouraged investors to believe its work was done, thus driving down
bond yields and stoking the economic boom - the very last thing Alan
Greenspan wants.

He is right to be concerned: the US economy is not slowing down. Nominal
gross domestic product roared ahead at a 7.9 per cent annual pace between the
third and fourth quarters of last year. Consumer spending, business
investment and the housing market all remain buoyant. And after a
miraculously low performance, inflation is at last beginning to creep up. The
most recent gross domestic product data showed the core personal consumption
deflator rising to an annualised 2.1 per cent, from an average 1.3 per cent
over the previous 21/2 years.

The trouble is that, given spectacular equity returns, last year's modest
interest rate rises have proved ineffective in slowing demand. The Fed
therefore needs to see a sizeable decline in share prices before it can be
sure inflation risks have been capped. Since its only weapon is monetary
policy, this suggests that rates will have to keep rising until the market
bubble bursts. A more hawkish Fed, determined to keep a lid on inflation at
any cost, should be good for bonds: and indeed, Treasuries have staged a
mini-rally over the past two weeks. But it is a miserable prospect for
stocks.
The Financial Times, February 3, 2000
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