-Caveat Lector- <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/"> </A> -Cui Bono?- SW BULLETIN - February 9, 2000 --------------------------------------------- This Week's Report: ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE Environmental change involves jumps, fluctuations, and trends, the environment changing through the operation of the internal machinery of the *ecosphere (biosphere), and through the external agencies of cosmic and geological forces. Evidence of past environmental change, almost always incomplete, derives from geochemical, physical, biological, historical, and instrumental sources. In recent years, high-speed computers have allowed researchers to manipulate complicated and reasonably realistic models of environmental change, with modelling particularly useful for studying changes in *sedimentary basins, biogeochemical cycles, and climate. General circulation models, run with appropriate boundary conditions, predict climates of the past, and these predicted climates can be compared with paleoclimatic indicators. ... ... R.B. Alley et al (3 authors 3 installations, US) present a review of current research on global climate change, the authors making the following points: 1) Prediction of climate change requires observational constraints on the current climate state, knowledge of the way the coupled air-ocean-ice-earth-life system behaves, and information on changing forcings such as solar variability. Studies of past climate are also required to focus model-building efforts on climate components that are likely to change, and to allow testing of the ability of models to predict time-evolution of the system. 2) The last few million years have been generally cold and icy compared with the previous hundred million years but have alternated between warmer and colder conditions. These alternations have been linked to changes over tens of thousands of years in the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of sunlight on Earth caused by features of Earth's orbit. Globally synchronous climate change despite some hemispheric asynchrony of the forcing is explained at least in part by lowering carbon dioxide during colder times in response to changes in ocean chemistry. We live in one of the warmer times of these orbital cycles; the coolest times brought glaciation to nearly one-third of the modern land area. 3) Studies of past climate changes indicate that the Earth system has experienced greater and more rapid changes over larger areas that was generally believed possible, with jumping between fundamentally different modes of operation in as little as a few years. Most of the last 100,000 years or longer has been characterized by large and abrupt regional-to-global climate changes, and agriculture and industry have developed during anomalously stable climatic conditions. New high-resolution analysis of sediment cores indicates these past changes have been caused by "*band jumps" between modes of operation of the climate system. Recurrence of such band jumps is possible and might be affected by human activities. ----------- R.B. Alley et al: Global climate change. (Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. US 31 Aug 99 96:9987) QY: Richard B. Alley [[EMAIL PROTECTED]] ----------- Text Notes: ... ... *ecosphere (biosphere): In general, the term "biosphere" refers to the portion of the planet capable of supporting life. It ranges from elevations of approximately 10,000 meters above sea level to the deep ocean, and a few hundred meters below the surface of the soil. The biosphere consists of the hydrosphere, the lower atmosphere (troposphere), and the surface of the *lithosphere, all three regions inhabited by metabolically active organisms. ... ... *lithosphere: In current geology, the lithosphere is the approximately 100 kilometer rigid upper layer of the crust and upper mantle of the Earth. ... ... *sedimentary basins: The term "sedimentary basin" refers to a subsiding area of the Earth's crust, which permits the net accumulation of sediment, i.e., material derived from pre- existing rock, from biogenic sources, or precipitated by chemical processes. ... ... *band jumps: In this context, the term "band jump" refers to an abrupt change from one range of variation to another. ------------------- Summary & Notes by SCIENCE-WEEK [http://scienceweek.com] 1Oct99 ------------------- Related Background: ON THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID CLIMATE CHANGE Over the course of geologic history, the environment on Earth has been far from static. Geologic evidence suggests that 600 million years ago the atmosphere lacked sufficient oxygen to support animal life. More recently, as indicated by sediments recording conditions over the past 500,000 years, the climate of the planet varied between at least two different states. The record from the past 150,000 years is particularly well-preserved, offering details concerning repeated climate changes. Between approximately 131,000 and 114,000 years ago, a warm period similar to the climate of today occurred. This was followed by what is called the "Wisconsin ice age", which ended approximately 12,000 years ago when the current relatively warm *Holocene period began. ... ... Kendrick Taylor (Desert Research Institute, US) presents a review of the research of a large project to develop a climate record for the past 110,000 years, the author making the following points: 1) The layerings of glacial ice record seasonal variations of temperature, snowfall, concentrations of atmospheric gases, and atmospheric circulation patterns. In general, the weight of accumulating snow compresses the snow below it, trapping atmospheric gases, dust, and chemicals, and a deep ice core thus provides a sequential record amenable to analysis. 2) The author reports that by examining ice cores from Greenland, he and his colleagues have determined that climate changes large enough to have extensive impacts on our society have occurred in a time-frame of less than 10 years. The author suggests that the climate of Earth could change significantly during a lifetime, that we are still a long way from being able to predict such a change, but we are getting closer to an understanding of how it might occur. A pressing concern is whether anthropogenic changes in the atmosphere of the planet might perturb climate stability. 3) The author points out that climate is the result of the exchange of heat and mass between the land, ocean, atmosphere, ice sheets, and space. As long as changes to the land, ocean, atmosphere, and ice sheets stay below certain thresholds, climate changes will occur slowly. But climate will change rapidly if those thresholds are crossed. *Greenhouse warming, for example, by altering ocean circulation and the flow of tropical heat to the North Atlantic, could lead to rapid cooling in eastern North America, Europe and Scandinavia. Altered ocean circulation could lead to much larger changes. We have no experience predicting climate switches between stable modes. 4) The author suggests human ingenuity would most likely allow us to adapt to a rapid change in climate, but we would pay a larger price than our civilization has ever known. The author poses a scenario: "Imagine the economic and social cost of moving, in a 20-year period, most of our agricultural activities 500 miles south of their current locations. Imagine the social cost and famine if agriculture could not be relocated quickly enough." 5) Although we do not know the critical level of greenhouse gas concentration that would trigger a rapid climate change, we do know that reducing the rate of greenhouse emissions would help in two ways. First, the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases would increase more slowly. Second, numerical models predict that the climate threshold will occur at a higher concentration of greenhouse gases if the concentration of greenhouses increases slowly. 6) The author suggests it will be another 20 years before the climate changes that are predicted to be associated with the greenhouse effect becomes large enough to be unambiguously differentiated from naturally occurring variations in climate. As a society we have the choice of ignoring the warning signs or taking some action. ----------- Kendrick Taylor: Rapid climate change. (American Scientist Jul/Aug 1999 87:320) QY: Kendrick Taylor [[EMAIL PROTECTED]] ----------- Text Notes: ... ... *Holocene period: The most recent epoch of the geologic time scale, from approximately 10,000 years ago to the present. ... ... *Greenhouse warming: See notes to report #1, this issue. ------------------- Summary & Notes by SCIENCE-WEEK [http://scienceweek.com] 13Aug99 ------------------- Related Background: ON CLIMATE FORCINGS IN THE INDUSTRIAL ERA A "climate forcing" is an imposed perturbation of the Earth's energy balance with space, for example, a change of the solar radiation incident on the planet, or a change of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere. The unit of measure of climate forcing is Watts per square meter. Thus, the forcing due to the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide since pre-Industrial times is approximately 1.5 Watts per square meter. Climate change is combination of deterministic response to forcings and *chaotic fluctuations -- the chaos a consequence of the nonlinear equations governing the dynamics of the system. Quantitative knowledge of all significant climate forcings is needed to establish the contribution of deterministic factors in observed climate change and to predict future climate. J.E. Hansen et al, in a review of current considerations concerning climate forcings in the Industrial era, make the following points: 1) The forcings that drive long-term climate change are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate change. 2) Anthropogenic greenhouse gases, which are well-measured, cause a strong positive (warming) force. But other, poorly measured, anthropogenic forcings, especially changes of atmospheric aerosols, clouds, and land-use patterns, cause a negative forcing that tends to offset greenhouse warming. 3) One consequence of this partial balance is that the natural forcing due to solar irradiance changes may play a larger role in long-term climate change than inferred from comparison with greenhouse gases alone. Current trends in greenhouse gas climate forcings are smaller than in popular "business as usual" or 1 percent per year carbon dioxide growth scenarios. The authors suggest that a summary implication of their considerations is a paradigm change for long-term climate projections: uncertainties in climate forcings have supplanted global climate sensitivity as the predominant issue. The authors further suggest that climate forcing scenarios are essential for climate predictions, but if only one forcing scenario is used in climate simulations, as has been a recent tendency, the scenario itself is likely to be taken as a prediction, as well as the calculated climate change. The authors recommend that the use of multiple scenarios will aid objective analysis of climate change as it unfolds in coming years. ----------- J.E. Hansen et al (6 authors at National Aeronautics and Space Administration, US) Climate forcings in the Industrial era. (Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. US 27 Oct 98 95:12753) QY: James E. Hansen [[EMAIL PROTECTED]] ----------- Text Notes: ... ... *chaotic fluctuations: The term "chaotic", in this context, is specific. In the study of physical systems, the term "chaotic behavior" has a specific meaning: the behavior of a system is said to be "chaotic" if its final state is so sensitive to the system's precise initial conditions that the behavior of the system is in effect unpredictable and cannot be distinguished from a random process, even though the behavior of the system is strictly determinate in a mathematical sense. In other words, a deterministic system characterized by extremely sensitive instabilities, despite the system being determinate, can exhibit behavior that is unpredictable, and the system is then called "chaotic". During the past several decades, the analysis of such chaotic systems has intrigued both physicists and mathematicians. ------------------- Summary & Notes by SCIENCE-WEEK [http://scienceweek.com] 4Dec98 Copyright Copyright (c) 1999 ScienceWeek All Rights Reserved ================================================================= Kadosh, Kadosh, Kadosh, YHVH, TZEVAOT FROM THE DESK OF: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> *Mike Spitzer* <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> ~~~~~~~~ <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> The Best Way To Destroy Enemies Is To Change Them To Friends Shalom, A Salaam Aleikum, and to all, A Good Day. ================================================================= <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/">www.ctrl.org</A> DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. Proselytizing propagandic screeds are not allowed. Substance�not soap-boxing! These are sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory'�with its many half-truths, misdirections and outright frauds�is used politically by different groups with major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought. That being said, CTRL gives no endorsement to the validity of posts, and always suggests to readers; be wary of what you read. CTRL gives no credence to Holocaust denial and nazi's need not apply. Let us please be civil and as always, Caveat Lector. ======================================================================== Archives Available at: http://home.ease.lsoft.com/archives/CTRL.html http:[EMAIL PROTECTED]/ ======================================================================== To subscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SUBSCRIBE CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] To UNsubscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SIGNOFF CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] Om
