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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: 10 FEBRUARY 2000 (10 FEBRUARY 2000 GMT)
Contact: Nancy Marrello
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
613-533-6000 x 74040
Queen s University

Droughts worse than the 1930's likely in the twenty-first century

Dramatic research by two Queen's University biologists and a scientist from
the University of Ghent suggests that the world's supply of fresh water could
plummet causing drought-induced famine, political unrest and large-scale
migration worldwide.

The research, which will appear in the January 27th edition of Nature, proves
for the first time that extreme fluctuations in the earth's water-resources
during the last millennium occurred naturally in Eastern Africa. Mounting
scientific evidence now suggests that large changes in climatic conditions
have occurred across the globe over the last millennium and could reoccur
independent of human-induced global-warming.

The existence of extreme, global climate changes provides a clue to the
future, says Dr. Brian Cumming, a biologist with Queen's Paleoecological
Environmental Assessment & Research Laboratory (PEARL). "Our research clearly
indicates that we should be prepared for naturally-occurring, extreme climate
changes that will provoke water shortages in the future," says Dr. Cumming,
who co-authored the study with Queen's biologist Kathleen Laird and
University of Ghent biologist Dirk Verschuren.

The research, which was conducted on Lake Naivasha in Kenya, shows that
during the past 1,100 years extreme changes in water availability occurred
many times in East Africa, sometimes producing major droughts lasting
hundreds of years. The study mirrors previous studies in North America, the
caribbean and Europe and confirms not only that extreme variations in climate
exist, but that these large-scale weather patterns may have occurred on a
global scale (like the medieval warm period from 1,000 to 1,200 AD).

Now intent on identifying the trigger for extreme climate shifts affecting
water supplies in the past, the researchers speculate about the impact of
current, human-induced global warming. "Our concern is that human
industrialization could be a trigger for extreme climate changes on a global
scale in the future, " Cumming says.

Researchers do know that if a global climate shift occurred - whether natural
or human-induced - it would be overwhelming and could even precipitate
large-scale migrations. The study reveals a direct correlation between scarce
water-resources in Kenya during the last millennium and economic, political
and social devastation.

Perhaps most alarming is the revelation that East Africa has enjoyed a
relatively high level of water availability during the past 800 years (with
three episodes of water shortages much more severe than the 1930's Dust
Bowl). Consequently, development and population growth during the past
centuries increased during the periods of abundant water resources. "So, if
an extreme climate changes does occur in the future it could create
widespread devastation," says Cumming.


###
Spokesperson: Dr. Brian Cumming, Queen's Department of Biology, 613-533-6153.

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