-Caveat Lector- <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/"> </A> -Cui Bono?- > from: http://www.kreative.net/carolmoore/sunspot-article.html > > SUNSPOT CYCLES AND ACTIVIST STRATEGY > > by Carol Moore > > In the mid-1980s, writing in two small radical publications, > I predicted the dissolution of the Soviet Union and freedom > for eastern Europe for the exact month that it did in fact > happen. I did not predict it specifically for November of > 1989. I predicted it for the height of the next sunspot cycle. > The height occured in November of 1989. And, as this article > argues, this was no coincidence. > > Considering that we are now are in the height of another > sunspot cycle, a time of maximum human excitability, of mass > demonstrations, riots, revolutions and wars, it is wise to > look at the evidence that these cycles have influenced all of > human history -- and to learn the implications of these > cycles for activist organzing. Below is my analysis, with > references. [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > * * * > In an October 11, 1989 Washington Post editorial, �The Wave > of Protests�, the author wrote wonderingly: �Yugoslavia, > Algeria, Latvia and Armenia, Chile, Poland, Burma, South > Korea: at an astounding number and range of places on either > side of the weakened Iron Curtain, a stunning global pattern > is taking shape. Great numbers of citizens previously atomized, > intimidated or apathetic are coming into the streets to assert > a collective consciousness and, mostly peacefully, to press > their grievances and demand redress.� On January 1, 1990, in > �The Year of Revolution� a Post editorial writer again wondered: > �Why did it happen so fast? The great event of 1989 has been the > revolution in Eastern Europe.� The dissolution of the Soviet > Union itself would follow soon after. > > And in a December 16, 1989 letter to the Washington Post retired > professor of history Elizabeth L. Eisenstein noted the > �disturbing parallels� between the European revolutions of 1848 > and the 1989 Eastern European revolutions. �It is about all the > sense of collective euphoria that the Western world is > experiencing right now. Euphoria has almost always marked the > early stages of modern revolutions.� At least one journalist > had a half-witty intuition of what might be happening. In 1991 > columnist Gwynne Dyer commented on some recent wacky political > news by saying, "Either the sunspots are getting bad or they are > putting something in the water." > > As we enter the year 2000, we are seeing wars, demonstrations, > riots and rebellions escalating in a seemingly irrational > fashion. It begins to remind one of 1989. > > Students of history and long-time political activists can > remember such heady periods like 1989�particularly 1979 and > 1968. During those times the least indignity might lead to > riots, rebellions, revolutions, civil wars. And they can > remember other periods of years when lethargic peoples seem > willing to endure repression. > > Activists have seen movements rapidly rise to prominence, press > for demands, win or lose their fights, and then a few years > later quickly diminish in support and influence. They have seen > leaders forgotten or even jailed as followers stayed out of > the streets. And, they have seen the same or similar movements > revived again to press for the old demands or to make new ones. > Sometimes the reasons seem clear, other times arbitrary or even > nonsensical. > > M.K. Gandhi saw triumphs in India in the late teens, late twenties > and late thirties�with years of prison time in between. Lech > Walesca formed Poland�s Solidarity union in the late 1970s, spent > some of the 1980s in prison, but led a successful democratic > revolution in Poland at the end of the decade. In the United > States peace and anti-nuclear, civil rights and liberties, > anti-tax/pro-freedom, drug legalization, and other movements have > had their ups and downs in the last thirty years. > > One explanation -- and I believe the most credible -- for these > increase and decreases in human activism is the 11 year sunspot > cycle. Periods of high sunspot activity seem to be correlated > with greater mass human activity and excitability, including > protests, riots, revolutions and wars; periods of low sunspot > cycle with relative quiescence. Is there a link between sunspot > activity and human tendencies to mass action and social and > political change? And if there is, how can activists use this > knowledge to more effectively organize change? > > General Effects of Sunspots > > Sunspots are solar explosions which appear as dark blotches on > the surface of the sun. During these solar eruptions ultra-violet > radiation, electro-magnetic waves, and electrically charged > particles are spewed out into the solar system, reaching the > earth within a day. This bombardment of the earth causes magnetic > storms, aura borealis, fluctuations in atmospheric pressure and > electricity and in positive and negative ionization. It also > increases the number of thunderstorms, cyclones and earthquakes > and may be related to global warming and cooling. > > Humans are also sensitive to the effects of solar eruptions. > Various studies link ultra-violet radiation and changes in > magnetic fields to increased metabolism levels or erratic behavior. > And it is well known that an increase in negative ions makes > us more energetic. Increases in admissions to mental hospitals > and in traffic and industrial accidents have been linked to the > occurrence of solar flares. Considering that during a period of > maximum sunspot activity there may be as many as 200 solar flares > in one year, as compared with as few as five during a year of > minimum activity, it is not surprising that all these > atmospheric disruptions might similarly disrupt human > sensibilities. > > Below is a graph of sunspot cycles over the last 250 years. As > you can see, some heights were relatively long lasting, some > shorter. The time between peaks varied from 7 or 8 years to 16 > or 17 years, averaging 11 years. > > [chart omitted -- see it on the > webpage] > > A. L. Tchijevsky�s Theory of Sunspot Activity and Human Activity > > That sunspot cycle activity increased and decreased in a cycle > of approximately 11 years was established in the 1750s. During > World War I, A. L. Tchijevsky, a Russian professor of Astronomy > and Biological Physics who continued his studies at the war > front, noticed that particularly severe battles regularly > followed each solar flare during the sunspot peak period of > 1916-17. > > To test his hypothesis that sunspot cycle influenced human > activity, Tchijevsky constructed an Index of Mass Human > Excitability covering each year form 500 BC to 1922 AD. He then > investigated the histories of 72 countries during that period, > noting signs of human unrest such as wars, revolutions, riots, > expeditions and migrations, plus the numbers of humans involved. > Tchijevsky found that fully 80% of the most significant events > occurred during the 5 years of maximum sunspot activity. > (Tchijevsky's merely noting that the 1917 Russian Revolution > occurred during the height of the sunspot cycle earned him > almost 30 years in Soviet prisons because his theory challenged > Marxist dialectics.) > > Tchijevsky divided the eleven year sunspot cycle into four > social periods: > > Period 1: (approximately 3 years, minimum sunspot activity). > Peace, lack of unity among the masses, election of conservatives, > autocratic, minority rule. > > Period 2: (approx. 2 years, increasing sunspot activity). > Increasing mass excitability, new leaders rise, new ideas and > challenges to the elite. > > Period 3: (Approximately 3 years, maximum sunspot activity). > Maximum excitability, election of liberals or radicals, mass > demonstrations, riots, revolutions, wars and resolution of most > pressing demands. > > Period 4: (Approximately 3 years, decreasing sunspot activity). > Decrease in excitability, masses become apathetic, seek peace. > > Tchijevsky did not believe solar disturbances caused discontent > as much as they acted as detonators that set off the smoldering > discontent of the masses -- discontent often channeled into war > by their rulers. Nor did he deny that even during minimum solar > activity some people would rebel against intolerable conditions > or that nations would seek advantage through war and conquest. > > Even my informal review below of the last 200 years tends to > confirm Tchijevsky's hypothesis. (Because wars have been so > continuous through human history, I have only mentioned the > largest ones.) > > You can do your own review by looking at sunspot information at > MSFC Solar Physics The page includes small charts and the best > graphs of historical and current sunspot cycles. Solar Terrestrial > Activity Report [http://dxlc.com/solar/ ] includes the last few > weeks sunspot history. You can also search for historical > chronologies like the one at HyperHistory on Line > [http://www.hyperhistory.com/ ] > > > The Evidence > > Sunspot Height Years Events Just Before or During Height > > 1776-79 American Revolution > 1788-91 French Revolution, US Constitution > 1803-06 Napoleon conquers Europe > 1815-17 US-British War of 1812; Two wars to > defeat Napoleon; German, English and > Serbian riots; Brazil, Chile and > Argentina declare independence > 1828-32 Revolts in Turkey, Mexico, Belgium, > Poland, France, Britain; Virginia slave > revolt > 1837-40 Constitutional revolts in Canada, slavery > debate outlawed in US, Texas Independence, > Boer separatists occupy African lands, > British-Afghan war; Opium War > 1848-51 Revolts and revolutions in Poland, > Switzerland, Paris, Vienna, Berlin, Milan, > Venice, Naples, Prague, Budapest, Warsaw; > US Mexican War starts; Taiping Rebellion > starts > 1858-61 American Civil War begins; revolts in India, > Italy, China > 1869-72 Franco-Prussian War; Paris Revolutionary > Commune > 1883-86 Big US labor strikes, revolt in Sudan, First > Indian Congress meets > 1893-95 Zulu revolt, Cuban revolution > 1905-08 German miners, Hottentots, Turks, Indians, > Honduras, Russians revolt > 1916-18 World War I, Irish and Indian revolts, > Russian > Revolution > 1927-31 Mussolini and Hitler build power on economic > unrest; revolts in Vienna, China; > formation of Red Army; Spanish Republic > formed; > mass civil disobedience in India > 1937-40 US steel strike, Spanish Civil War, Germany > and > Japan start World War II, mass civil > disobedience > in India > 1947-51 Greek Civil War, First Israeli-Arab War, > Indian-Pakistani riots, Red Army conquers > China, > Vietnam revolts, Korean War > 1957-60 Israel invades Sinai, Hungarian uprising, > Cuban > revolution, civil rights movement in US, > French-Algerian war, MauMau revolt, Iraq > revolt, > numerous African nations gain independence > > A more detailed (though hardly exhaustive) listing of the most > significant > events of the last 30 years, divided into Tchijevsky's four periods, > shows > similar correlations. > > Years/Period -- Events > > Peace/Repression Period 1962-64 > Cuban Missile Crisis, Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, active civil rights > period > > Increase Period 1965-66 > 500,000 troops sent to Vietnam, first big anti-war marches, first US > inner > city riots, China cultural revolution begins > > Maximum Period 1967-69 > Height of Vietnam War, peace demonstrations, worldwide student > uprisings, > Chinese cultural revolution continues, Czechoslovakian uprising/USSR > invasion, US inner city riots, Israeli Arab war, Woodstock and height of > hippy movement > > Decrease Period 1970-72 > Women's movement takes off as student movement slacks off, > India-Pakistan war, > Nixon visits China for d�tente, Vietnam War winds down/Paris Peace > talks, > Bangladesh independence, Communist Allende elected in Chile > > Peace/Repression Period 1973-75 > Vietnam War ends, Wounded Knee Occupation, Chilean military overthrows > Allende, Yom Kipper War and oil embargo, Nixon resigns, Greek and > Ethiopian > dictators deposed, Helsinki peace accords, Khmer Rouge begin Cambodian > massacres, civil war begins in Lebanon > > Increase Period 1976-78 > Camp David Egypt-Israeli Peace accords, Pakistan military coup, war in > Ethiopia and Zaire, Sandinista rebels fighting in Nicaragua, military > coups > in Afghanistan, first big anti-nuclear power demonstrations > > Maximum Period 1979-82 > Polish Solidarity takes off, US anti-tax movement reaches heights and > elects > Reagan, Shah of Iran overthrown, Iraq-Iran war begins, USSR invades > Afghanistan, Falklands War, Sandinistas oust Somas, Zimbabwe gains > independence, anti-nuclear and peace demonstrations increase worldwide > > Decrease Period 1981-83 > US aid to "contras" in Nicaragua, US invades Grenada, Tamils rebel in > Sri > Lanka, Israel invades Lebanon, Greens elected in Germany > Peace/Repression Period 1984-86 > Israel withdraws from Lebanon, South Africa riots put down by > government, > Philippines ousts Marcos, Sikh rebellions/riots in India, US war on > drugs > accelerates > > Increase Period 1987-88 > Palestinian Infitada begins, Eastern European dissidents organize, USSR > & > US sign missile treaty, USSR begins pullout from Afghanistan > > Maximum Period 1989-91 > Chinese student uprising crushed, peaceful revolutions in Eastern > Europe, > dissolution of Soviet Union/end of Communist Party domination, Saddam > Hussein invades Kuwait, end of apartheid in South Africa, beginnings of > patriot and militia movements in US, Somalia civil war, Yugoslavia > begins slaughter in Bosnia, Sandinistas lose Nicaraguan elections > > Decrease Period 1992-94 > Czechoslovakia divides into Czech and Slovak republics, Afghan rebels > capture Kabul, protests over Waco massacre, Republicans take US > congress, > Mandela becomes President, Arafat returns to Palestine, Rwanda massacres > begin > > Peace/Repression Period 1995-97 > Peace process begins in Northern Ireland, Bosnia-Croation-Serbian Peace > accords, Israeli-Palestinian Peace accords, FBI increases power after > Oklahoma City bombing, busts of "right wing" activists, US rate of > incarceration becomes highest in world, China and Northern Korea war > threats mediated > > Increase Period 1998-99 > Peace treaty in Ireland, big peace protests versus Iraq war, overthrow > of > Indonesia�s Suharto, India and Pakistan test nuclear weapons, US and > European youth/student riots, Serbian-KLA conflicts increase and US/ > NATO decides to "resolve" conflict through massive bombing of the > whole nation, Russian repeatedly warns of possibility of Nuclear War > over the bombing, India-Pakistan skirmishes over Kashmir increase; > militias burn East Timor, drive people into camps in West Timor; big > demonstrations at WTO meeting in Seattle; rising religious strife in > India and Indonesia. > > Maximum Period 2000-02 > > Implications for Activist Strategy > > The old saying "knowledge is power" and "the truth shall set ye free" > certainly would be applicable to the sunspot cycle and activist > strategy. Understanding and adjusting to the different periods can't > help but increase activist effectiveness. > > Peace/Repression Period: Don't despair about apathy or repression > because they are temporary; emphasize resisting authoritarian power > grabs more than pushing original initiatives; emphasize organizational > survival, networking, education. > > Increase Period: Notice which issues spontaneously arise and offer > solutions that are part of the long term program; stress organization > building, coalitions; initiate actions, civil disobedience to focus > general public on desired change; resist especially any escalation > towards war. > > Maximum Period: Mobilize coalitions around structural changes, > especially those that will undermine authoritarian power in coming > years; plan big mass actions since large numbers are possible; make > sure any moves to war will meet mass resistance; be willing to > compromise to achieve goals but do not be co-opted by power structure > > Decrease Period: Encourage activists to remain active as long as they > have the energy; consolidate gains, make sure organizations can survive > decreased funding and participation; watch out for attempts to crack > down by government once they realize movement is losing support. > > In the mid-1980s, using my knowledge of sunspots cycles and human > activity, I publicly predicted freedom for Eastern Europe and the > possible dissolution of the Soviet Union at the height of the next > sunspot cycle. That height was November, 1989, the month that the > Berlin wall came tumbling down. > > As we can see from your daily newspapers, popular activism and > nuclear saber rattling are already rising as we approach the height > of the next sunspot cycle in the year 2000. I am making no predictions > this time -- just holding my breath that it is not during this height > of the sunspot cycle that humans finally unleash the horror of nuclear > war upon the world. > > Information in this article was drawn from: > * A. L. Tchijevsky�s 1926 article �Physical Factors of the Historical > Process� > * R. Edward Dewey's book Cycles: The Mysterious Forces that Trigger > Events, 1971, (available at links below) as well as his article > "Sunspots > and War, 300 B.C. to Date", R. E. Dewey, May, 1960; > * A variety of scientific news articles, including: "Pieces of sun's > magnetic field fly through space," Lawrence Spohn, > Albuquerque Tribune, 3-22-91; "Great Ball of Fire: An angry sun stages > a spectacular show," Time Magazine, July 3, 1989. > > For more information on the sunspot and other cycles: > Foundation for the Study of Cycles http://www.cycles.org/ > Sunspot Cycles /Recessions page at > http://www.angelfire.com/or/truthfinder/index21.html > Books on Cycles http://www.realtraders.com/subject.htm > > Copyright 1998 by Carol Moore. Permission to reprint freely granted, > provided the article is reprinted in full and that any reprint is > accompanied by this copyright statement. <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/">www.ctrl.org</A> DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. Proselytizing propagandic screeds are not allowed. Substance�not soap-boxing! These are sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory'�with its many half-truths, misdirections and outright frauds�is used politically by different groups with major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought. That being said, CTRL gives no endorsement to the validity of posts, and always suggests to readers; be wary of what you read. CTRL gives no credence to Holocaust denial and nazi's need not apply. Let us please be civil and as always, Caveat Lector. ======================================================================== Archives Available at: http://home.ease.lsoft.com/archives/CTRL.html http:[EMAIL PROTECTED]/ ======================================================================== To subscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SUBSCRIBE CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] To UNsubscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SIGNOFF CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] Om
