-Caveat Lector- <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/"> </A> -Cui Bono?- from: http://www.aci.net/kalliste/ Click Here: <A HREF="http://www.aci.net/kalliste/">The Home Page of J. Orlin Grabbe</A> ----- China vs. Taiwan China Threatens War If Taiwan Elects Wrong Candidate And if Barry Goldwater is elected, there'll be war in Vietnam. CHINA is threatening Taiwan with war if it chooses a pro-independence candidate in this week's presidential election. President Jiang Zemin last week led senior figures in Beijing in saying that a declaration of Taiwanese independence after the election would result in a fratricidal war between the Chinese people. "It will be a case of brother fighting brother," he said. The annual gathering of China's rubber-stamp parliament was turned into a platform for top ranks of the Communist Party to try to intimidate the 22 million voters on the island, which Beijing claims is a renegade province. Generals Zhang Wannian and Chi Haotian, repeatedly told delegates: "Taiwan independence means war." Gen Zhang singled out the leading candidate, Chen Shui-bian, as a pro-independence troublemaker whose election would trigger a Chinese invasion. The last polls of the campaign, showed the race to be a tight, three-way battle between Mr Chen, Vice-President Lien Chan and the independent James Soong. Western military analysts doubt that the People's Liberation Army has the capability to invade Taiwan, which would require an operation similar in scale to the D-Day landings of 1944. Taiwanese refer to a Chinese invasion as the "million man swim" because the PLA lacks landing craft and logistical support vessels to cross the 100-mile strait between them. Beijing's bluster in advance of Saturday's vote is a milder form of the interference it tried in the last presidential election. Four years ago when President Lee Teng-hui was campaigning for election, Beijing tried to ensure his defeat by test-firing missiles across the Taiwan Strait. There are fears, however, that Mr Chen's election could trigger a crisis which would draw the United States into a confrontation with the PLA. A poll for the TVBS network last week showed him leading the field with 26 per cent support. Western analysts suspect that Beijing could perceive America's presidential election as an opportunity to catch Washington off guard, without an adequate response to an international crisis. Mr Chen, who says that Taiwan is already independent and therefore does not need to make a formal declaration, rejects Beijing's demands that Taipei adhere to a "one China"policy. "What happens if Chen as president says that Taiwan is already independent? The question we face is how the Chinese would react to that after the election," said one Western diplomat in Beijing. The Kuomintang party, which has ruled Taiwan since the Chinese civil war, is relying on undecided voters turning away from Mr Chen at the last minute to support Mr Lien as a safe pair of hands who will not confront Beijing. Taiwan will continue to reject Beijing's demands for negotiations on reunification with the Chinese mainland whoever wins the elections. Support for reunification is negligible in Taiwan. The island has one of the most dynamic economies in Asia, with an annual per capita income of £7,800 - 20 times higher than in China. Beijing's promises of autonomy, along the lines of that introduced in Hong Kong and Macau, are distrusted by the Taiwanese who have witnessed constant political manipulation by the Communist leadership in its former colonies. Chen Chien-jen, Taiwan's foreign minister, said: "It's a precondition that the people of China enjoy the rule of law, freedom, democracy and a free market before reunification can take place." Even businessmen from the island, who are among the most enthusiastic investors in China, are repelled by its oppressive political system. While opportunities to make money are good and many enjoy the wider aspects of Chinese life, most cannot stomach its lack of freedom. "I come to Beijing to do business. We talk business, sing karaoke, have some drinks, but I would not want to live here. It's not the same. Taiwan is very different now," said David Lin, an advertising executive. The other big issue of the election is political corruption. Scandal has crippled the campaign of the charismatic Mr Soong. An early front-runner, Mr Soong suffered a severe blow when the Kuomintang - widely acknowledged as the richest political organisation in the world - alleged that he had stolen £20 million from party funds while serving as secretary general a decade ago. In the wake of the allegations, Mr Soong's support slumped from one-third to one-quarter in the polls and has not recovered. The role of secret slush funds in Taiwanese elections is often crucial. The island's streets have taken on a carnival atmosphere in advance of the vote as each of the main campaigns spends tens of millions of pounds to ensure that their candidate prevails. Cash plays a vital role because votes can be bought. Police last week launched a crackdown on illegal gambling, which becomes pervasive during the elections as the political parties use back street bookies to procure votes. Millions of pounds are wagered in the final days of the campaign as betting rings vie to offer the best odds on candidates. The higher odds provide an incentive to punters to vote for the contender who offers the best return. The London Telegraph, March 12, 2000 US Politics Dumb and Dumber in Mad Fumble for the Presidency Look, mom! No brains! THE race for the White House enters its final pre-election phase this week, with George W Bush and Al Gore - fresh from prevailing over their party rivals - turning their fire on one another. Mr Bush, the Texas governor, has emerged badly bruised from his Republican primary battle with John McCain. For the first time in more than a year, he lags behind Mr Gore in opinion polls, and badly needs to inflict some quick damage on the Vice-President. Exit polls last week found that almost half of Mr McCain's supporters were inclined to switch to Mr Gore, rather than to Mr Bush. Now that Bill Bradley has withdrawn from the Democratic race, and Mr McCain has suspended his campaign, Mr Gore and Mr Bush are cutting back on unnecessary spending on the primary process and are looking to their parties nationally to help to promote them and undermine each other in the months before November's election. Mr Gore faces an immediate mauling over dubious fund-raising activities in 1996, which have already drawn renewed attention from the Bush camp. Fresh disclosures have led to claims that the Vice-President may have provided "false testimony" during an investigation into improper use of White House telephones to raise cash for the last presidential contest. A leaked report from Department of Justice investigators, suggesting that the Attorney General Janet Reno shielded President Clinton, Hillary Clinton and Mr Gore from a full-scale independent inquiry, has been seized on by a gleeful Mr Bush to attack the Vice-President in one of his most vulnerable areas. The Gore campaign denounced the leak as "old news". But Mr Bush pounced, saying it raised "troubling questions" about the Vice-President. "After all our nation has been through in the last eight years, America deserves a president whose values and integrity we can trust," he said. Meanwhile, allies of Mr Bush say that he is considering offering Mr McCain a senior position in his administration, in charge of either defence or foreign affairs, in an effort to woo him aboard. Mr McCain's name remains on the Republican ballot for forthcoming primaries. He already has enough delegates to be entitled to speak - and make trouble if he wishes - at the party convention in July, when Mr Bush will be formally nominated. The Arizona senator, who has pointedly withheld his endorsement of Mr Bush, has repeatedly said he would not consider running jointly as would-be vice president. But senior Republicans believe that Mr McCain might be tempted by a cabinet post suited to his military and foreign-affairs experience. "If you're asked by the President to do a job, it's not something you dismiss out of hand," one said. Mr Gore has emerged from the early primary elections in far better shape than Mr Bush. His effort to use "alpha-male" talk - speeches peppered with the word "fight" - galvanised supporters more than his comprehensive explanations of policy could ever do. He is beginning to attack Mr Bush over issues which the Democrats believe will prove election winners, such as the Texas governor's opposition to gun control and abortion and his "risky" plan to offer extensive tax cuts. With the Texas governor down to the last $6 million (£3.7 million) of the record $70 million (£44 million) he raised before the primary elections began, the Republican Party nationally is preparing to weigh in shortly with a television campaign against Mr Gore. The votes were barely counted last "Super Tuesday" night before senior officials of the Republican National Committee of organisers had booked flights to Austin, Texas, to begin talks with Mr Bush's staff on lines of attack. They took with them polling data showing the Vice-President to be vulnerable to many of the criticisms made by Mr Bradley, his defeated party rival, including the allegation that he is untrustworthy. In one televised attack, to be deployed by the Republicans, Mr Bradley asked Mr Gore to his face: "Why should we believe that you will tell the truth as President if you don't tell the truth as a candidate?" The London Telegraph, March 12, 2000 ----- Aloha, He'Ping, Om, Shalom, Salaam. Em Hotep, Peace Be, All My Relations. Omnia Bona Bonis, Adieu, Adios, Aloha. Amen. Roads End <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/">www.ctrl.org</A> DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. Proselytizing propagandic screeds are not allowed. Substance—not soap-boxing! 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