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http://www.millenngroup.com/repository/solar/adelaide.html

Storm warning; Physicist predicts solar damage

Australia's new national power grid and hundreds of satellites orbiting the
Earth may have survived a
recent solar particle explosion - but they might not be so lucky next time.

The warning comes from Adelaide University physicist Dr Roger Clay in the
wake of last month's solar
storm which hit Earth with an interplanetary shock wave of ionized gas and
magnetic fields.

Dr Clay said the solar storm on 18 February - technically known as a coronal
mass ejection (CME) of
high-energy particles - did not cause as much damage as some had feared, but
it was likely to be the first
of many such explosions in the next two to three years.

A CME consists of a group of atoms, known as a plasma, which have had their
electrons stripped away
from the nuclei. These travel towards earth at speeds up to 500km per second.

In sufficient quantities, the wave of particles can disrupt satellites in
their path and even create an electric
current big enough to disturb the Earth's magnetic field, overloading
electric power systems.

Dr Clay said the Sun had just begun its most active phase - known as "solar
maximum" - with the February
CME likely to be the first of many such explosions.

He said the last phase 11 years ago had caused a major disruption to the
Canadian power system. Since
then, many more satellites had been put into orbit around the Earth, many of
which were not "radiation
hardened".

"If the next solar storm is no worse than the one last month, then there's no
problem," he said. "But of
course, since the last solar maximum 11 years ago, we've got a lot more
satellites and we depend a lot
more on satellites. All our communication satellites, our GPS systems and
these sort of satellite systems
have computer chips in them." says Dr Clay.

"The computer chips are susceptible to these particles going through them
because they deposit electrons
in there, and that's enough to change a zero to a one in the computer memory,
which could effectively
disable the satellite."

Dr Clay said the solar discharge also posed a threat to the Earth because it
was equivalent to a huge
electric current passing by us. "That huge external current can disturb the
Earth's magnetic field and induce
very large currents here on Earth." said Dr Clay.

"If you've got a large loop of wire, and you've got a magnetic field going
through it, a change in the
magnetic field induces an electrical current through the wire.

"There is a move to integrate power grids across countries so, as in many
countries, what we have here in
Australia, as we've been joining up grids between the states, are huge loops
of line all connected together.
When the Earth's magnetic field changes quite rapidly, it can induce big
currents in the national grid, and
those currents may overload the system. This is what happened in Canada,"
said Dr Clay.

Dr Clay said CMEs would also cause major dangers for humans in space, who are
without the protection
of Earth's atmosphere.

"The Apollo astronauts have said that when they shut their eyes they saw
'flashes'. Those flashes were due
to these particles going through their eyes," Dr Clay said.

"It's a high-radiation environment, and it can kill. It's like continuous
radiotherapy. We don't have an
effective protection against it, outside of the Earth's protective atmosphere.

"Right now space agencies building a new space station to orbit the Earth.
Roughly one person in one
hundred per year in such an environment would die from this radiation," he
said.

Dr Clay said Adelaide University's Department of Physics and Mathematical
Physics has been operating
two radiation detectors - one for about two years, and another commissioned
earlier this year - to study
solar effects.

The 18 February CME was the first substantial test for the older detector,
which responds to the early
effects of CMEs, with the department now hoping to develop this detector into
an automated solar storm
predictor.

The newer detector recorded the local arrival of the solar debris at the
Earth some four days later.

Media, Marketing & Publications Unit, Adelaide University.


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