By Timothy Heritage
MOSCOW, March 27 (Reuters) - Will the real Vladimir Putin please
stand up!
The former KGB agent won Russia's presidential election on Sunday
without a clear economic or political programme, largely thanks to
his image as a tough guy who has waged war against rebels in
Chechnya and is ready to crack down on corruption.
Now the hard part begins.
In the coming weeks and months, Putin will have to show his true
colours as he tackles the huge political, economic and military
challenges that lie ahead in his impoverished and demoralised
country.
No one is expecting miracles and Putin is promising none.
"The question remains what does Mr Putin really want to do.
He ran on no platform in effect other than a strong state and
stability," Charles Blitzer, a London-based economist who used
to work in Moscow, told Reuters Television.
"It's still an open question what he wants to do...My guess
is nothing is going to change very quickly."
HUGE CHALLENGES
The challenges Putin faces are immense. On the political front,
there is war in Chechnya, an opposition Communist Party still able
to muster nearly 30 percent at the polls, crime and corruption are
rampant and ordinary people are demoralised.
Russia is desperately in need of stability. Governments have come
and gone with alarming regularity in the past few years, some
regional leaders have become fiercely independent of the Kremlin and
foreign policy has often been criticised as weak.
The economy is stronger than at any time since the rouble crashed
in August 1998, but recovery remains fragile. Western investors say
a small group of businessmen -- the so-called "oligarchs"
-- who have political influence beyond their economic weight still
impede reforms.
Tax evasion deprives state coffers of vast amounts and the the
International Monetary Fund says structural reforms, such as a new
law on bankruptcies and a reduction of barter trade, are needed
before it unfreezes a $4.6 billion loan package.
Putin has pledged commitment to democracy and market economic
reforms, but has not said how he will do it.
Analysts expect some government changes, including appointment of
a loyal prime minister who is unlikely to challenge his authority.
The defence, interior and foreign ministers' posts could be reviewed
but a major change of direction is unlikely.
Foreign policy is also unlikely to change dramatically, but is
expected to focus more on Russia's economic interests.
"Much depends on what exactly he does in economics and
foreign policy, and much will become clearer now," said Yevgeny
Volk of the Heritage Foundation think-tank in Moscow.
"Mr Putin will be more pragmatic. He will try to protect
Russian national interests, but he will refrain from rhetoric that
would cause a deterioration in relations with the West."
PLATFORM TO LAUNCH REFORMS
Putin gave few clues about his plans on Monday but made clear he
expects a long and hard struggle.
"A lot of things that will lead to many controversies need
to be done," he said.
His absolute majority in Sunday's poll, making a second round
runoff unnecessary, gives him a solid platform to launch his
reforms.
But reformers have a scratchy record in Russia. Putin's
predecessor, Boris Yeltsin, found it difficult to push through
reforms despite success at the polls.
Former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev's reforms in the mid-1980s
at first raised high hopes among the population but eventually
helped bring about his downfall.
"Putin is a level-headed man who is aware of his mission.
One cannot envy this mission," Gorbachev said. "Much will
depend on how Putin evaluates the past, who he invites to join his
team and what goals he sets."
Another question mark over Putin is his lack of experience in
public office, although he was for several years a senior aide in
Russia's second city of St Petersburg.
His 16 years as a KGB security police agent, including as a spy
in Communist East Germany, and the absence of a coherent programme
also alarm economists and political experts alike.
Some people fear a return to strong-arm tactics to restrict
dissent and more restraints, overt or covert, on the media.
WEST LOOKS ON ANXIOUSLY
Western leaders will focus particularly on whether he errs on the
side of authoritarianism to push through reforms.
U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright said she could
understand Russians wanted order. "But the question is whether
it's order with a small or a capital 'O'," she added.
Western leaders will also watch him on Chechnya, hoping he will
end a military drive which they say has used indiscriminate force.
But many analysts say he will be unable to end the war fast and that
it will long remain a thorn in his side.
"Chechnya will be a serious headache for Mr Putin for a long
time," Volk said. "Problems will emerge in Chechnya that
will cause economic problems because they will have to spend a lot
of money on the war and restoring the economy there."
