The Defense of Taiwan
The Wall Street Journal
4/21/00
Will China go to war to retake Taiwan? China's leaders have
repeatedly indicated that they would sacrifice economic and
political ties with the rest of the world to prevent the island
from drifting permanently from the motherland. The potential for
the Taiwanese and U.S. militaries to deter any Chinese decision
to use force is of course crucial, but it's only part of the go
or no-go equation.
The Korean War began largely because of a miscalculation that the
U.S. wouldn't come to its ally's aid. So it's important that the
U.S. send clear messages about its commitment to honor
obligations. The U.S. decision not to sell Taiwan's navy several
Aegis destroyers could therefore turn out to be a bad strategic
decision, even if the military rationale was reasonable.
Coming as it does after a series of political moves to appease
China on Taiwan, it raises doubts about American willingness to
take even mild risks to defend a young democracy. This will hurt
morale in Taipei and increase the chances of miscalculation in
Beijing.
Let's say at the outset that American military experts do seem to
be getting a good grip on the problem of defending Taiwan; a
recent Pentagon report highlighted many weaknesses in the
island's military. The question is whether the U.S. has the
political will to fix them.
The problem is mainly isolation. The Taiwanese brass haven't
adopted best practices from what the U.S. calls the "revolution
in military affairs" because they haven't had access to the
training and exchanges given other U.S. allies. Command and
control is weak, and interservice rivalry hampers joint
operations. A large conscript army saps resources that should go
toward modernizing the navy and air force as well as retaining
competent technicians and professional soldiers.
Experts agree that Taiwan still has a technological edge over the
mainland militarily, but that will be disappear unless U.S.
policy changes. China is developing a blue-water navy that will
be able to blockade Taiwan's ports and bring the economy to its
knees. It has about 200 solid-fuel ballistic missiles deployed
along the Strait, and is producing 50 to 70 more each year. These
could be used to wipe out the island's airfields unless missile
defense is upgraded.
What should the U.S. do? There is room for disagreement about
individual weapon systems, especially when as costly and complex
as the Aegis ships. But the U.S. very much needs to address the
dangers of a missile attack or a naval blockade. That means
committing to sell the latest Patriot missile, the PAC-3, when
introduced. It means providing the tools of antisubmarine
warfare, such as the P-3 Orion plane and persuading other
countries to sell diesel submarines to Taiwan.
As important, we should end the isolation of the Taiwanese
military. The House passed the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act to
correct this. The Chief of the U.S. Pacific Command, Admiral
Dennis Blair, has said that the act doesn't let him do anything
more than is possible now, and it throws an unwelcome spotlight
on the relationship. But this suggests that the U.S. military has
been lax in using the available opportunities for exchanges.
And of course there is the matter political will. Some officials
in the State Department and White House seem to think meeting
U.S. obligations to help Taiwan defend itself means "provoking"
China, and so shouldn't be attempted. But it is Chinese threats
and missile deployments that provoke; countering them with
defensive weaponry is the only response that Beijing will
respect.
To act otherwise allows the risk of war to ratchet upward. Some
of Beijing's generals believe that if given the resources to
force Taiwan into submission, China would be able to spend a
decade riding out any storm of protest. So far, Beijing's more
rational leaders have prevailed because they can point to the
U.S. commitment to Taiwan's defense. If that commitment wavers,
the calculus changes. Korea should have taught the U.S. that the
fastest way to bring war is to cause potential aggressors to
miscalculate the odds. But then maybe they don't read history
aymore in the White House.
####
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Shalom, A Salaam Aleikum, and to all, A Good Day.
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