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    In E-conomy, Fed Reserve's Influence May Wane - Report

By: Kevin Featherly
Date: 04/26/00
Location: NEW YORK, NEW YORK, U.S.A.

Outmoded by new technologies and new methods of payment, the influence of the
Federal Reserve over national fiscal policy may, over the next several
decades, begin to wane.

That is the view expressed in a report by the New York-based Deutsche Banc
Alex. Brown's e-finance team, the fourth in a series of reports published
under the banner "Breaking Up the Financial Intermediary." It is the fourth
in the series, and the first to address the Fed head on.

The report, which is available online at
http://equity.research.db.com/public/craft/ , draws on the work of Harvard
University economist Benjamin Friedman, whose research anticipates waning
influence of the Fed in the Digital Age.

"He attributes this to new technologies, new payment types as well as the, at
best, tenuous way in which the Fed controls monetary policy," the report
states. "Thus, like a once necessary part of the human anatomy, perhaps our
central bank, as well as others in the global economy, may become vestigial."

The Federal Reserve faces three primary challenges to its fiscal policy
dominance, according to the report. These involve high-tech, non-depository
payment systems; extension of credit from non-bank balance sheets; and
creation of "bank-like liabilities" on non-bank balance sheets.

Because businesses commonly extend credit to one another, the Federal Reserve
began dealing with the second of these issues prior to the Internet's
arrival. But now that it's here, the Internet threatens to dismantle the
Fed's self-protective bulwarks.

"What if those trade receivables find immediate liquidity through networks
like eCredit and the business practices of many new Internet start-ups that
begin to include cross-supplier equity ownership and trade credit," the
report says. "This sounds to us like a slippery slope."

It's a slope, Harvard's Friedman has suggested, that could slide the Fed
right into the sea inside of 25 years. The report's authors suggest it could
be sooner than that. "We suspect that Friedman is correct in his thesis that
the central bank is vulnerable to change and would encourage him to speed up
his clock," the report says.

But what could represent the Fed's downfall might also represent a boon to
savvy financiers, the report states. "The opportunities for new Internet
payment networks which compete with the established networks appear
compelling," the report says.

The report anticipates new electronic entrants into the world of traditional
payments, singling out NextCard. The report also predicts the advent of
"legacy payment processors," like Cybersource and Digital Courier, which
understand and can operate comfortably in the Internet economy. And it points
to the arrival of new payment-service providers like eCash Technologies,
companies the authors say will know how to either work within existing
monetary rules - or find ways around them.

"What appears to be in the offing - the incremental disenfranchisement of the
central bank from new payment settlement agents as well as new deposit
creating and credit lending agents - will likely play right into the hands of
the free banking school of thought," the report's authors state.

Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown is a US subsidiary of Germany's Deutsche Bank AG.

Deutsche Bank Global Equity Research is online at
http://equity.research.db.com/ .

Reported by Newsbytes.com, http://www.newsbytes.com

12:59 CST

(20000426/Press contact: Christine Cortezi, 410-895-3418; e-mail,
[EMAIL PROTECTED]/WIRES ONLINE, BUSINESS/)



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