>>> Now ... how [does][did][will] this work with Japan[like nations] ? Do we
get to a point where balance of imports and exports becomes too weighty to one
side (imports, i.e.) that we find some excuse (aspirin factory output, e.g.) to
impose sanctions. There's an interesting corrrelation between how much credit
the U.S. government gets and how much personal debt its population is willing
to bear. It's like the child imitating the parent. This is a dangerous
perspective in that the 'child' in this case (the people) should be driving the
'parent' (government, i.e.). But as we all know, goods outlets carry a lot of
'made in China [or elsewhere]' goods (check your labels) that fuel demand not
only for the items but for more debt (government {import/export} and personal
{credit}). A<>E<>R <<<
From
http://www.security-policy.org/papers/2000/00-C51.html
}}>Begin
Publications of the Casey Institute
of the Center for Security Policy
No. 00-C 51
PERSPECTIVE
25 May 2000
With PNTR Approved, U.S. Capital Markets Take Center Stage
Thompson Amendment Focuses on Proliferators' Access
(Washington, D.C.): As the Clinton Administration celebrates its foreign policy
victory over human rights-, religious freedom- and national security-minded
opponents of Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) with China, yesterday's
Financial Times signaled that the Administration and its allies' efforts to
insulate Beijing from future penalties for its proliferation and other odious
activities may prove far from complete.
The attached article makes clear that a new "foreign policy tool" is emerging --
one that might fill the growing vacuum that would arise if the House vote
approving PNTR has the effect of eviscerating the use of U.S. trade sanctions
for such purposes. Specifically, the FT reports a rising interest in the United
States Senate, among other places, in putting at risk, or denying outright,
access to the U.S. capital markets for proliferators and other wrong-doers.
The prime-movers behind this initiative at the moment are Senators Fred
Thompson (R-TN) and Robert Torricelli (D-NJ), the chairman and a senior
Democrat respectively on the Senate's Governmental Affairs Committee. They have
announced their intention to offer an amendment to the PNTR legislation. As the
FT put it, "the Thompson[-Torricelli] amendment reflects a growing body of
opinion that the U.S. should leverage the supremacy of its [capital] markets to
help achieve its policy goals."
The Thompson-Torricelli amendment underscores the burgeoning recognition that,
at the dawn of the 21st century, the bulk of the world's available development
capital resides in the U.S. markets. Accordingly, any contraction of access to
the U.S. markets with respect to foreign governments and/or entities -- due to
weapons proliferation or other national security and human rights abuses --
could well prove extremely costly for the perpetrator. This is primarily
because the private markets have become the preferred and, in some cases, the
required source of funding for both foreign governments and larger enterprises.
The dominance of the U.S. markets is sufficient to ensure that efforts to "work
around" restricted U.S. market access would probably fail to yield desired
funding levels at acceptable costs over time.
The Thompson-Torricelli initiative has momentum, thanks to the recent
debilitating experience of one major Chinese enterprise as it sought last month
to tap the resources of the U.S. capital markets. As the Financial Times put
it:
The proponents [of capital markets leverage] have been emboldened by the
successful opposition to a planned initial share offering by PetroChina, the
main operating subsidiary of China's biggest oil company. After an ad hoc
coalition of left-leaning protest groups and conservative national security
types united against it, PetroChina was forced to scale back its offering from
$10 billion to $2.9 billion." (Emphasis added.)
The Bottom Line
Among the decided advantages of the ground-breaking financial sanctions being
proposed by Senators Thompson and Torricelli is the fact that -- in contrast to
trade sanctions -- they do not implicate or disrupt U.S. exports, jobs or
people-to-people contacts in most cases. In light of the declining willingness
of policy-makers to exercise the latter instruments for these reasons, the
tools provided for by the Thompson-Torricelli "China Non-Proliferation Act"
amendment deserves expedited and positive consideration by the Congress.
- 30 -
NOTE: The Center's publications are intended to invigorate and enrich the
debate on foreign policy and defense issues. The views expressed do not
necessarily reflect those of all members of the Center's Board of Advisors.
Top of Page
� 1988-2000, Center for Security Policy
End<{{
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