from: http://www.bubblebucks.com/ Click Here: <A HREF="http://www.bubblebucks.com/">BubbleBucks - market psychology</A> ----- ------------------------------------------------------------------------ MARKET PSYCHOLOGY & TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Subscribe Sign up for updates Track record The Bubble Popular studies Money management Research Links Novel Update archive US government debt Search site Comments? Subscribers' entrance Curriculum vitae OUR REGULAR FEATURES: "ANIMAL SPIRITS" This confidence indicator was featured in Barron's. See for yourself where we are in the "confidence cycle." MOMENTUM indicator has signaled low-risk buy points amazingly well. VOLATILITY is the key to risk aversion.THE MIND OF THE MARKET Over 10,000 visits each month. Read disclaimer. Support BubbleBucks. Please subscribe. Double Bubble: The Implications of the Over-Valuation of the Stock Market and the Dollar (7/4) - Dean Baker. Is America�s economy really slowing? (6/11) - Economist. Yup. U.S. Public Debt Levels Off in May (5/29) - U.S. Treasury, "debt to the penny" page. But will a recession cause debt to re-explode? (Jump to "the bubble" to see ratio to GDP.) What's Left of the New Era? (5/27) - James Stack. A post-mortem on the new era...of radio. Survey of International Banking (5/20) - Economist. The virtual threat. Fed Watchers Raise Sights On Increase in Interest Rates (5/12) - International Herald Tribune. Fed funds going to 7.5%.... Jump to 'Animal Spirits' Update (this page). Scroll down for other new graphs. The taming of the shrewd: The world�s best-known investors no longer understand financial markets (5/7) - Economist. But your neighbor does. Soft or hard? (4/22) - Economist. The landing, that is. The next president is likely to face a recession early in his term. Blue forecast assumes 4.1 percent unemployment. In 2001-2002 the economy will face the likelihood--according to reliable indicators--of "self-organized criticality" or a business slump. The cause will be a failure of confidence. See: "Animal Spirits" in Y2K: No Recession in View (11/19), No recession till after election. The best signal is when the yield curve inverts from 1 to 10 years, and...springtime brought the inversion! (Even though the inversion has gone away, the signal hasn't....) What New Economy? - David Dreman. Profits suck in the New Economy. Current Observations (added 3/30) - stockmarketcycles.com. Peter Eliades on zero years and other bearish ruminations. What, me worry? Share prices are becoming more volatile. Does it matter? (3/23) - Economist. Volatility poised for a breakout? 2000-2010: Can America's New Golden Age Be Sustained? (added 2/27) - stratfor.com. The bull market ends, and Pat Buchanan is the candidate of 2012. See THE BUBBLE updated! . . . The world�s two biggest economies are caught in a spiral of borrowing (1/23) - Economist. In America, it's private debt. In Japan, it's public. The difference is that Japan has assets. U.S. Treasury Reveals Fiscal Year Deficit of $130,077,892,717.81 - U.S. Treasury. A surplus? What are el Presidente and the press talking about? . . . BULL & BEAR, YIN & YANG: SPX & 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE! Sign up for free performance updates! E-mail address:"The Mind of the Market" in three easy charts: Cycle through the charts below using the link in the upper right of each page. 1. Confidence -- monthy. 2. Momentum occasional -- waiting for self-organized criticality.... 3. Risk Aversion -- monthly.. top Please e-mail me with broken links or missing images. Thanks. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ THE BUBBLE See Archive for past index pages. The only other times in the past century when the debt ratio has been this high have been around 1929 and 1945. top Strange fact of the day: The federal budget was in deficit in 1999! See for yourself! (Source: U.S. Treasury, debt to the penny). Could the politicians be lying about the true situation? Of course. The Government is "borrowing" from Social Security to support current spending but not telling us about it--unless you look very closely. Bookmark the Treasury page and see for yourself what's happening with the debt. The Wall Street Journal cites my "animal spirits" work in February 20, 1998 front page article on the current "euphoria." "Grandfather Economic Reports" -- Michael Hodges' great set of charts on the U.S. economy. Government data displayed in a way you won't see at a *.gov site. Popular Studies--see Research Page for a listing of more: The Tax Cut America Needs Self-organized criticality and the non-inflationary debt-shredding reflation - why there is more volatility in your future. Decennial Patterns in the Stock Market - partially restored Macroeconomic Volatility and Risk Aversion - in "the mind of the market" "A Human Need" -- my piece in Barron's "The Social Security Fix" "Reflections on 'Titanic'". "Some Perspectives on Complacency." "Daily Volatility of the S&P 500, 1970-1997" "Note on 'The Big Mo'" "The 'Big Mo' in the '8' Year" "'Animal Spirits' in 1998" "Debt and the Stock Market" These three are a matched set: "The Long-Term Momentum Oscillator" "The Killer Wave" "Note on Forecasting the Stock Market Using the Long-Term Momentum Oscillator" top Produced by Elliott Middleton, Ph.D. Terms of use. The standard disclaimer applies. You invest at your own risk. We offer no guarantees that past performance will be indicative of future results, or that use of our analysis will not result in losses. No recommendation is made to buy or sell any security. Subscription service represents research and analysis only. Backtesting results may have no predictive value. Solicitations do not apply to residents of states or countries in which registration requirements are not met. Residents of all 50 states of the United States may consider using our money management services. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable but we cannot warrant its accuracy or completeness. Such information is subject to change without notice. Subscribers use privately distributed research results at their own risk. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. section 107, material on the public home page is distributed without profit or payment to those who have a prior interest in receiving this information for non-profit research and educational purposes only. The public area of BubbleBucks is a free electronic magazine which scores prominently on Google.com. It qualifies for the "media exemption" applied to other publications with regard to the free expression of political views. Home | Send mail to bubblebucks.com with questions or comments about this web site. Copyright � 1996-2000. All rights reserved. Permission required to copy in any manner. Last modified: July 04, 2000 ----- Aloha, He'Ping, Om, Shalom, Salaam. Em Hotep, Peace Be, All My Relations. 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