WJPBR Email News List [EMAIL PROTECTED] Peace at any cost is a Prelude to War! Laos' Future Threatened Summary On July 3, a group of armed Laotians and Thais attacked a customs checkpoint in the southern Lao border-town of Vang Tao. The attack, which left at least six dead, follows a series of recent bombings attributed to Hmong rebels in Laos and coincides with a month-long visit by the exiled Laotian prince to the United States. While the raid itself was likely a demonstration to gain financial and political support from Laotians abroad, in the longer term the upsurge in rebel activity in Laos may attract the involvement of other nations, including China. Analysis On July 3, a group of 60 armed rebels, several recruited from farms in Thailand, attacked a customs checkpoint in Vang Tao, along the southern Lao-Thai border. The raid left at least six attackers dead and 27 in Thai custody as they fled back across the border. The attack on the outpost was likely a demonstration by Laotian rebels seeking foreign financial and political support to remove Laos' communist regime, which has been in place for a quarter century. The violence follows on the heels of a series of bombings elsewhere in Laos, attributed to ethnic Hmong rebels, and occurred during a visit by exiled Laotian Prince Sauryavong Savang to the United States. With a demonstrated potential to recruit volunteers on the ground and a large overseas population from which to draw financial support, the question arises as to whether these are viable seeds of a civil war in Southeast Asia, or simply a continuing trend of low scale violence. ________________________________________________________________ Would you like to see full text? http://www.stratfor.com/SERVICES/giu2000/070700.ASP ___________________________________________________________________ The attack on the border post was organized primarily as a high- profile demonstration, rather than as a serious attempt to overthrow the government. The attack occurred at a border post in the southernmost Champasak province, far from Vientiane. Laotian rebels recruited farmers from across the border in Thailand, offering them money and land in return for bringing down the communist regime in Vientiane, according to Thai military sources cited in the Bangkok Post. Following the attack, Sauryavong told Radio France International that the royal family was "ready to put itself at the country's service" to help "restore liberty, peace and democracy" in Laos. With recent string of bombings attributed to ethnic Hmong and this latest attack on the border post, opposition to the current Laotian regime have demonstrated an ability to launch at least limited attacks on the government. The group was armed with AK-47s, rocket propelled grenade launchers, hand grenades, and wore camouflage uniforms, according to the Bangkok Post. Access to weapons and ammunition in the region remains relatively easy, as it has accumulated from years of war or from police and military sources. Recruiting volunteers to fight has been more difficult. Houmphan Sayasith, leader of the Laotian government-in- exile, told Radio France International that anti-communist forces in the border region where Laos, Thailand and Cambodia meet comprise approximately 900 men, though the government puts the number substantially lower. However, recruiting from poor ethnic Laotian farmers in Thailand may bolster the numbers. A recent report by the Mekong Environment Resource Institute shows that the Asian financial crisis has further hurt already struggling farmers, particularly in northeast Thailand where the Thai fighters were recruited. Organizers of a Laotian rebellion can call on financial support from expatriate Laotian communities, particularly in the United States and France, where the prince lives in exile. _______________________________________________________________ For more on Laos, see: http://www.stratfor.com/asia/countries/laos/default.htm __________________________________________________________________ However, beyond grassroots interest, a full-scale rebellion would require the support of a host country to facilitate logistics, headquarters and training. While formerly a colonial power in Indochina, France has little strategic reason to undermine the current Laotian government and throw the region into turmoil. The United States, for its part, has consistently shown little interest in undermining the Laotian communist government. Laos poses little threat to U.S. interests in the region and offers little strategic value to the United States. There is little reason to break Laos' ties with Vietnam as long as Vietnam and China are competitors. Further, faced with ongoing problems in Kosovo, the Middle East peace process and Iraq, among others, Laos takes low priority. Regionally, there are also few options available. Vietnam supports the current Laotian regime, both financially and politically. Cambodia's current government, under Prime Minister Hun Sen, is historically linked to Vietnam, and therefore has little desire to undermine the Laotian regime. Thailand, which has already fought a border skirmish with Laos, is currently pre-occupied with border problems with Myanmar. Bangkok will not expend a great deal of effort to stem the activities of Laotian rebels as long as they don't cause trouble in Thailand, and it will not actively support a Laotian rebellion. However, in the long run, China may take an interest in offering support. Relations between China and Laos have rarely been cordial, as Laos falls within the political sway of Vietnam. During the brief battle between Laos and Thailand in 1986, China provided cheap artillery shells to Thailand, according to The Nation. With rebels already feeling out their prospects for financial and political support, an opportunity emerges for greater Chinese involvement in Laos should relations with Vietnam deteriorate. Though indications have yet to emerge of hostile Chinese intent toward Vientiane, Beijing may be willing in the long run to help put a more pro-Chinese regime in power in Laos. _______________________________________________________________ For more on Asia, see: http://www.stratfor.com/asia/default.htm __________________________________________________________________ (c) 2000 WNI, Inc. *COPYRIGHT NOTICE** In accordance with Title 17 U. S. C. 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