WJPBR Email News List [EMAIL PROTECTED] Peace at any cost is a Prelude to War! Deciphering the undecided voter The Associated Press WASHINGTON - July 7, 2000 Who's undecided about this year's presidential election? Whether it's one in 20 or one in three depends on the poll and how much people were pushed to make a decision. No matter the percentages, Marilyn Epperson isn't crazy about either of the top candidates, Vice President Al Gore, the Democrat, and Texas Gov. George W. Bush, the Republican. "I'm not leaning for Al Gore because of all the Clinton things, and the other one is just dull to me," said the 56-year-old retired school board member from Louisville, Ky., who considers herself independent. "It's up to me to listen more so I can make up my mind." Some pollsters say nudging voters toward a decision often yields more reliable results. "There is a high correlation between actual voting behavior and what they tell you when you force the undecideds," said Frank Newport, executive editor of the Gallup Poll. "The behavior you're trying to learn is the behavior of a voter who is forced to pull a lever." The Gallup poll shows about one in 20 undecided when it offers four candidates - Gore, Bush, Reform Party contender Pat Buchanan and Green Party candidate Ralph Nader. Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, agreed that pushing people to make a decision can provide more meaningful results. "If you don't push, you find a lot of people who won't make up their minds even close to the election," he said. "And exit polls show that most people make up their minds earlier than that." Some political analysts say the level of uncertainty is really higher than reflected in many polls. "The other polls present a picture of an electorate that is misleading in that almost everyone out there has a pretty clear preference," said Thomas Patterson, a Harvard researcher who is measuring public interest in the campaign during his yearlong "Vanishing Voter" project. "They get a 'top-of-mind' response. We're not saying that response is invalid, but it greatly overestimates the number of people who have a true preference," he said. In his surveys, Patterson, a professor of government and the press, phrases the presidential preference question differently, asking: "Which presidential candidate do you support at this time, or haven't you picked a candidate yet?" When asked with the stated option of undecided, more than half in the latest Vanishing Voter poll said they haven't made a choice, about a fifth said they're for Bush and another fifth said Gore. When asked how they leaned, the undecided number dropped to a third. Political analyst Stuart Rothenberg said pollsters have to press for a decision. "I don't think you have 33 percent of the public that doesn't have an inkling," he said. "There's a balance. You nudge them, but you don't force them to make an artificial choice." Patterson's belief is that many people are far from decided and that the upcoming political conventions will go a long way toward clarifying the race. "This is the point where many will make a choice," he said. In Patterson's poll of 1,000 adults taken June 28 through July 2, Democrats were more likely than Republicans to be undecided - 35 percent to 22 percent. Among independents, 41 percent were undecided. The error margin is plus or minus 3 percentage points. Jennifer Jenkins, an independent from Reston, La., said it's too early to decide. "The only time I have to pay attention to such things is when I don't have my kids," said the 38-year-old mother of two, who only hears about the candidates "when other people talk about them." While generally satisfied with the choices, Jenkins said she won't start thinking seriously about the election until the fall. Chris Bissonette, of Biddeford, Maine, says he is a Democrat who is unimpressed by either candidate. The 39-year-old pipefitter said he doesn't like Republicans "because they're more for the rich, and I'm a middle-class kind of guy." He also isn't impressed by Gore. "I'm getting weird vibes about both of them," Bissonette said. "They just say what they think people want to hear them say to get elected." *COPYRIGHT NOTICE** In accordance with Title 17 U. S. C. Section 107, any copyrighted work in this message is distributed under fair use without profit or payment to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for nonprofit research and educational purposes only.[Ref. http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml ] Want to be on our lists? Write at [EMAIL PROTECTED] for a menu of our lists! ****************************************************************************** ******************* A vote for Bush or Gore is a vote to continue Clinton policies! A vote for Buchanan is a vote to continue America! Therefore a vote for Gore or Bush is a wasted vote for America! Don't waste your vote! Vote for Patrick Buchanan! Today, candor compels us to admit that our vaunted two-party system is a snare and a delusion, a fraud upon the nation. Our two parties have become nothing but two wings of the same bird of prey... 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