Copyright 2000 InterPress Service, all rights reserved.
Worldwide distribution via the APC networks.
*** 20-Jul-0* ***
Title: MEXICO: Fox, Political Change with Economic Continuity
By Diego Cevallos
MEXICO CITY, Jul 20 (IPS) - Although Mexico's president-elect
Vicente Fox touts himself as the man who will bring change to
Mexico, most of his economic plans closely follow the current
government's policies.
With a few changes and a new economic team, Fox will stick to
the route of liberalisation of the economy and trade and
privatisations followed by the last three governments of the
Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI).
Close associates of Fox said Thursday that the top priority of
the new government, to take office in December, would be to open
the economy even further, attract investment in the electricity
and petrochemicals sectors, and carry out fiscal, tax, labour and
financial reforms based on business criteria and tight fiscal
discipline, while keeping social interests in mind.
The areas to be overhauled are the same ones tackled by
presidents Miguel de la Madrid (1982-88), Carlos Salinas (1988-94)
and Ernesto Zedillo, whose term ends in December. All three of
them implemented reforms that made Mexico one of Latin America's
pioneers in privatisations and the freeing up of trade.
Eduardo Sojo and Ernesto Derbez, slated for leadership
positions on Fox's economic team, told foreign correspondents
Thursday that not everything could be left up to the market, and
that the state had to intervene. But they also stressed their
belief in the liberalisation and ''democratisation'' of the
economy.
However, the task will not be easy for the new government,
because many of its proposals will have to make it through
Congress, where Fox's party, the conservative National Action
Party (PAN), will not enjoy an absolute majority.
PAN's share of seats climbed from 31 to 51 in the 128-member
Senate, and from 120 to 223 in the 500-member Chamber of Deputies.
PRI, meanwhile, will have 47 senators compared to 78, and 209
deputies, down from 239.
The centre-left Party of the Democratic Revolution's (PRD)
share of seats in the lower house of Congress plunged from 125 to
53, although it won 15 spots in the Senate, up from 13.
The main aim of the new government is to achieve ''steady and
sustainable'' seven percent annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
growth by the fourth year of its six-year term -- two points up
from this year's projected growth.
But that will only be made possible, said Derbez and Sojo, by
the implementation of a series of economic reforms aimed at a more
flexible labour market and introducing tax regulations for the
informal sector of the economy, which accounts for 40 to 60
percent of Mexico's labour force.
Sojo and Derbez are businessmen who have been working with Fox
for more than three years on designing a government programme.
Both have admitted their interest in the post of finance
secretary.
With the advice of professional recruiting agencies, the
president-elect promised to select ''the best men and women'' of
Mexico for his cabinet.
In the ''transitional'' team named by Fox there is only one
member of PAN. The rest are successful entrepreneurs, prominent
intellectuals from the left and former members of PRI.
Observers do not rule out the possibility that several of the
current government secretaries and under-secretaries on Zedillo's
economic team might be kept on by Fox, at least initially.
Unlike in the past, when the outgoing government left behind
numerous unresolved financial problems, which invariably led to
economic crises, analysts and investors are confident that this
time around the transition process will be smooth.
In the past few months, Zedillo obtained a 25 billion-dollar
package of international stand-by loans which will be available to
authorities if market swings or jitters occur during the change of
government.
Mexico currently boasts low inflation, steady economic growth,
strong international reserves, rising exports and a stable
exchange rate, while the president-elect enjoys strong
international support.
Financial analysts today no longer debate whether the change of
government will be good or bad, but whether it will be ''good or
excellent,'' wrote Joel Mart�nez, a columnist with the daily
'Reforma'.
Although Fox says the economic outlook is encouraging, he
stresses that the most important task is to combat the poverty
that affects more than 40 million of Mexico's nearly 100 million
people, for which his government plans to put special emphasis on
education, microcredit and support for farmers.
Derbez and Sojo said it had not yet been defined just which
laws and codes must be overhauled in order to give the economy a
boost and fight poverty. But they said Fox's associates were
working on proposals to be submitted to Congress when the time was
ripe.
Although the PAN lacks a majority in Congress, Derbez expressed
his confidence that the president-elect would be able to drum up
support for his plans in parliament.
Analysts, however, say the task will not be an easy one.
Currents within the governing PRI describing themselves as
''nationalistic and revolutionary'' have reproached
''technocrats'' of their party, among whom they include former
president Salinas and incumbent Zedillo, for the liberalisation of
the economy, which they blame for the party's historic Jul 2
electoral defeat, which brought to an end 71 years of
uninterrupted PRI rule.
PRI must return to its nationalistic roots and oppose any
further opening of the economy and privatisations, argue a group
of PRI legislators-elect.
That position is similar to the views held by the centre-left
PRD, the third strongest political force in Mexico.
The economic reforms promoted by PRI governments since 1982
made it through Congress thanks partly to support from PAN
lawmakers.
But things are different today, and in the beginning at least
it is possible that the Fox administration and PAN will be left on
their own in the attempt to forge ahead with the liberalisation of
the economy, observers warn.
While Fox has repeatedly stressed that his government would be
''inclusive,'' and has invited the PRI and PRD to work with him to
guarantee a smooth transition, the two parties have turned down
the invitation and remained tied up in internal bickering.
If the PRI and PRD remain reluctant to cooperate with Fox, the
president-elect's call to sign the ''Chapultepec Accord'', a
document in which all political parties would commit themselves to
working together towards a similar vision of a new Mexico, could
fail, say analysts.
PRI spokespersons said Wednesday that their party would firmly
take up its position as an opposition force, and that no one among
its ranks had permission to negotiate directly with Fox.
The PRD, whose showing in the Jul 2 elections was catastrophic,
said Fox's political and economic policies would be no different
than Zedillo's, and that the president-elect thus would not merit
support.
Zedillo ''should be very satisfied with the election results,
because he will finally be able to continue his political and
economic projects,'' quipped former PRD presidential candidate
Cuauht�moc C rdenas Tuesday evening, in his first statements
before TV cameras since his party's electoral debacle.
C rdenas said he had nothing to discuss with the president-
elect.
The losers seem prepared to spoil the party for Fox, and for
all of the Mexicans who staked their bets on change in a
democratic manner, said analyst Carlos Ram�rez.
But this is democracy, and Fox has the challenge of governing
with an opposition that might be intransigent, ''but hopefully
will not be,'' said historian Enrique Krauze.
Whatever the case, Fox will face a novel situation in a country
where for the past seven decades, the presidents have been able to
count on unconditional allies in the legislature, which was also
dominated by the PRI. (END/IPS/tra-so/dc/mj/sw/00)
Origin: Montevideo/MEXICO/
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