nessie wrote:
>
>
> Interesting that his site(s) cannot be connected to today. Packets seem
> to get through but the web server is not responding. May mean nothing, may
> mean he's under cyber-attack
>
I was able to get through last night to Cryptome and download a few docs. They
must be busy.
--
��
Mark McHugh
Sapere aude!
22 July 2000. Hironari Noda gives permission to reveal his name as source
of this document. Mr. Noda is a former officer of Japan's Public Security
Investigation Agency.
15 July 2000. Thanks to SK.
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[8 pages.]
OFFICIAL USE ONLY
ANALYTIC THINKING AND PRESENTATION
FOR INTELLIGENCE PRODUCERS
Special Running for
Government Officials of Japan
30 August - 3 September 93
Conducted By
Office of Training and Education
OFFICIAL USE ONLY
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COURSE OBJECTIVES
This training is designed to help participants gain added skill in analytic
thinking and in written and oral presentation through rigorous study of the
principles of effective argumentation, expository composition, and oral
briefing, and intensive drill in applying these principles in practical
problem-solving situations and other exercises that simulate the challenges
that intelligence analysts face. Upon completion of the course, the
participants will have improved their ability to:
-- Define the analytic mission, which has much to do with the way
analysts need to think, write, and speak.
-- Describe and use the "Conceptualization Process"-- a
deliberate strategy by which analysts can crystallize, focus, and
array effective lines of reasoning in all forms of finished
intelligence.
-- Describe and use the expository writing style and explain the
emphasis it places on structure, clarity, precision, brevity,
vigor, and concreteness.
-- Produce drafts of selected finished intelligence items within
specific time and format limits, using raw information.
-- Deliver analysis in a well-structured oral intelligence
briefing.
-- Understand the role of Warning in intelligence and how it
expands beyond analysts' regular interpretive and forecasting
duties.
-- Understand our organization's standards and practices of
personnel management and employee performance evaluation.
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MONDAY, Day 1
0830-0900 Course Overview and Administration
The Course Director will discuss the course's scope, aims,
content, and instructional method.
0900-1000 Orientation to the Organization
1000-1015 Break
1015-1200 Understanding the Analytic Mission
The nature of the intelligence analysis profession has
much to do with the way analysts need to think and write.
The instructor will seek to establish a clear and shared
understanding of the analytic mission by examining the
role of the analyst, the function of analysis, the concept
of threshold, the substantive aim of finished
intelligence, and the needs of policymakers and other
consumers of finished intelligence.
1200-1300 Lunch
1300-1400 Conceptualizing and Crafting Intelligence
You will learn the conceptualization process -- a
deliberate strategy by which to do analysis. This process
allows you to crystallize, focus, and set forth cogent and
compelling lines of reasoning. With this method you can
"package" any intelligence product -- whether it's a paper
you have to write or an oral briefing you have to give.
You will practice the conceptualization process throughout
the course.
1400-1415 Break
1415-1530 Communicating Through Analytic Writing
Expository writing is clear and concise communication that
stresses above all else the importance of clear
expressions and precise wording. The instructor will
discuss these principles so that you can begin applying
them in the course.
1530-1630 Focusing on What Consumers Need
Consumers of our products are busy people, and the time
constraints they face influence the formats we use to
present our analysis. We seek above all else to give our
readers a bottom line -- one overall analytic message they
can grasp quickly with no misunderstanding. We can speed
the process by which we come up with this bottom line by
using an approach called focusing. You will begin a series
of exercises this afternoon to hone your ability to focus
by making use of the conceptualization process and
expository writing principles we have discussed today.
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TUESDAY, Day 2
0830-1200 Crafting Finished Intelligence: Part I
Beginning now and continuing until noon, the class as a
group will work with the instructor to learn how to use a
methodical approach to analytic thinking and writing that
we call the conceptualization process to crystallize,
focus, and array effective argumentation. Students during
this segment will apply the method in the first of a
series of increasingly complex exercises designed to
simulate the analytic thinking and writing challenges that
analysts face when seeking to craft well-reasoned and
well-written finished intelligence.
1200-1300 Lunch
1300-1630 Crafting Finished Intelligence: Part II
Each student will use the concepts and methods learned in
the class thus far to conceptualize and draft a short
four-paragraph item based on an analysis of raw
information. This segment is designed to continue adding
to the students' analytic thinking and writing skills,
with emphasis on focus, organization, clarity, precision,
and brevity.
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WEDNESDAY, Day 3
0830-0930 Understanding the Structure of Analysis Publications
The instructor will discuss the shortform publication
format for finished intelligence and explain how it
exemplifies many of the features of the intermediate and
longform formats. All three formats -- shortform,
intermediate, and longform -- are the basis for
structuring the full range of finished intelligence
publications.
0930-1000 Preparing Topic-Sentence Outlines
Doing a topic-sentence outline saves you great amounts of
time, effort, and frustration in preparing written drafts,
The instructor will provide guidance on ways to use
topic-sentence outlines to ensure orderly and logical
presentation of material in finished intelligence
products.
1000-1015 Break
1015-1630 Crafting Finished Intelligence: Part III
Beginning now and continuing through the rest of today,
the students will use the concepts and methods learned in
the class thus far to conceptualize and draft a shortform
item based on an analysis of raw information. This segment
is designed to continue adding to students' analytic
thinking and writing skills by illustrating teaching
points applicable to the planning and production of all
forms of finished intelligence.
(Students will break for lunch from 1200 to 1300)
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THURSDAY, Day 4
0830-0900 Review
0900-1000 Focusing Exercises
1000-1015 Break
1015-1115 Preparing and Delivering an Intelligence Briefing
We all need to make a point orally to someone or
communicate our judgments and expertise to different
audiences. This segment offers you principles and
techniques for giving an effective oral presentation.
1115-1130 Break
1130-1200 Question and Discussion Session
1200-1300 Lunch
1300-1630 The Role of Warning in the Intelligence Mission
The speaker will lead the class in a discussion of the
Warning function and examine how this builds upon and
expands beyond analysts' regular interpretive and
forecasting duties.[*]
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FRIDAY, Day 5
[By hand] Mr. Martin Petersen ("Marty") senior
manag[cropped]
0830-1030 Personnel Management and Employee Performance Evaluation
The speaker will discuss the concepts and methods behind
good supervisory practices as we define them and will
examine the ways that supervisors assess employees' job
performance and potential for professional growth.
1030-1045 Break
1045-1200 Doing "Opportunity Analysis" and Dealing With Uncertainty
The speaker will address these special features and
challenges of the analysis profession.
1200-1300 Lunch
1300-1400 Ensuring Analytic Integrity
As intelligence analysts, we have to understand the need
for objectivity and balance and know how to recognize and
avoid bias. We have to broaden our analytic approach to
problems, avoid analytic pitfalls we face in making
judgments, and deal with implicit or explicit pressure to
slant analysis for policy reasons. This segment will
explore these issues and examine ways of coping with them.
1400-1415 Break
1415-1430 Recommendations for Further Study
1430-1500 Review and Concluding Remarks
1500-1600 Administration and Students' End-of-Course Evaluation
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Transcription and HTML by Cryptome.
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Note on "warning function:"
From: "Allen Thomson" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Subject: Re: Warning Function
Date: Sat, 15 Jul 2000 14:32:29 -0500
John Young inquired,
What is "the Warning function?" The rest of the outline is
understandable but this is not.
Basically a call that something bad, or at least important, is likely to
happen in the near future. Warning of war is the most dramatic example, but
a warning of an impending coup in an important country would qualify.
The information can come either from specific sources or from compiled
information. In the US, there has been a National Intelligence Officer for
Warning whose job was to coordinate various activities to try to avoid such
embarrassments as Pearl Harbor -- I don't know whether the post still
exists.
Intelligence Forum (http://www.intelforum.org) is sponsored by Intelligence
and National Security, a Frank Cass journal
(http://www.frankcass.com/jnls/ins.htm)
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http://cryptome.org/cia-atpip.htm
