New York Post-August 31, 2000
HILLARY'S POLL NUMBERS ADD UP TO TROUBLE
By Dick Morris
THE most recent Zogby poll, published in The Post, shows Hillary
ahead 47-45 in the Senate race in New York. But, far from being
good for the first lady, it is terrible news that suggests her
candidacy is in real trouble.
Any incumbent or front-runner needs to focus on only one number:
is he or she over or under 50 percent of the vote? If 47 percent
have decided to back Hillary, then 53 percent have decided to
vote against her. Some of them have just not decided yet to vote
for Lazio. If she is "ahead" by 47-45, she is really behind by
53-47.
In the Zogby poll, Al Gore wins 54 percent of the vote in New
York state while Hillary Clinton gets but 47 percent. One out of
eight Gore voters doesn't back Hillary. With the vice president
carrying the state by a whopping 21 points, Hillary manages just
a 2-point lead. More important, after a nationally televised
convention speech seen by half of New York's voters and a strong
Democratic trend coming out of the Los Angeles convention,
Hillary still is three points shy of the magic 50 percent plus
one that she needs to win.
When all has been said in Hillary's favor and against her, she
can get only 47 percent of the vote in the best of times. In the
war for the Senate in New York, the Battle of Hillary is over.
She lost. Her positives failed to take her over 50 percent. Her
affirmative campaign has fallen short. She will never again have
such advantages as she has enjoyed these past three weeks.
The Battle of Rick Lazio has begun. Hillary could still win this
seat.
She must attack, attack and attack. She must attack whatever the
cost, however much it takes, and whatever backlash she incurs.
She can no longer win this race with positives.
For his part, Lazio needs to defend, defend and defend. He
doesn't need to spend his resources attacking Hillary. He needs
to make sure that her attacks fall short and backfire.
This race for Senate is now approximately where the
Schumer-D'Amato contest was in early September. After Schumer won
the nomination in a primary against Geraldine Ferraro and Mark
Green, the incumbent Sen. Alfonse D'Amato was under 50 percent of
the vote. At that point, Schumer and D'Amato both realized that
unless the Republican could sully Schumer's image, the incumbent
D'Amato would lose.
What followed were two months of nonstop negatives by D'Amato
against the New York congressman. Schumer kept up a light fire
against D'Amato, just to keep the incumbent's negatives high, but
made the key decision to concentrate the vast bulk of his money
on rebutting each of the Republican's charges.
First D'Amato said Schumer was too liberal. Schumer answered by
pointing to his support for a balanced budget. Round One Schumer.
Then D'Amato hit Schumer for ignoring the needs of upstate. The
Brooklyn Democrat replied by talking about his commitment to
serving the whole state. Round Two - Schumer. Then, D'Amato hit
Schumer's attendance record, which had lagged dangerously as he
ran for the Senate. Chuck seemed lost and unable to come up with
a decent answer until he hit upon the fact that D'Amato's
attendance record in congressional committees and in Nassau
government, where he had served before coming to the Senate,
wasn't too hot either. When that final negative fell flat, it was
Round Three and the Match to Schumer.
Now Hillary has to come up with concerted lines of attack against
Lazio. Her first is clearly a replay of D'Amato's against Schumer
- the ideology card. She says Lazio is too conservative, linking
him with Gingrich in backing the 1995-96 GOP budget cuts in
Medicare, Medicaid, education and the environment.
To answer, Lazio should step aside from the blow and rattle off
his many efforts to increase these federal programs. He should
then counterpunch by assailing the Clintons' 1995 cuts in
hospital aid to New York. President Clinton even line-item vetoed
this assistance. Only when Hillary started running was the aid
restored.
If Lazio's rebuttal succeeds, Hillary will move on to other
negatives and Lazio must move on to other rebuttals. So the game
will go on. If Hillary can score, she can win. But if Lazio pulls
a Schumer and keeps parrying the first lady's blows, he's in for
a 7-10 point win.
=================================================================
Kadosh, Kadosh, Kadosh, YHVH, TZEVAOT
FROM THE DESK OF: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
*Mike Spitzer* <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
~~~~~~~~ <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
The Best Way To Destroy Enemies Is To Change Them To Friends
Shalom, A Salaam Aleikum, and to all, A Good Day.
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