From:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A23226-2000Aug25.html

ONLINE EXTRAS/ Media Notes

Media Chaos Theory Takes Over

By Howard Kurtz
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, August 25, 2000; 10:00 AM

This just in: Bush campaign in disarray!

Candidate mangling words.

Signs of laziness.

On the defensive.

Off message.

This is, of course, largely a media-manufactured story, tied to
Vice President Gore's recent surge in the polls. But under the
tenets of media chaos theory, if one candidate is doing well, the
other must be, ipso facto, stumbling and bumbling. And so George
W. Bush, a man who three short weeks ago seemed to be cruising
toward the presidency, is now being depicted as Dudley Do-Wrong,
sheriff of the gang that couldn't shoot straight.

The evidence for Bush's alleged mini-meltdown is pretty thin. But
the press is stringing together incidents and anecdotes to
produce such a portrait � most of which would be discounted or
ignored if Bush were still riding high in the all-important
opinion surveys.

Consider this morning's broadside from the Los Angeles Times:

"Ever since his campaign began, George W. Bush has tried to shuck
one central notion: that he doesn't have the brains for the job.
But campaign officials recently have worked to head off a second
'Wizard of Oz'-style problem: that he doesn't have the heart for
a tough campaign."

Bush spokesman Scott McClellan was dismissive, saying: "We've
heard this all before. He doesn't have enough Washington
experience, he's not smart enough, now he's not campaigning hard
enough. This campaign will be won on issues and ideas."

But noting that "suggestions that Bush lacks drive" have popped
up since the New Hampshire primary, the paper says: "The issue
bubbled up again last week as Bush responded to the end of the
Democratic National Convention with a single stop in Tennessee,
after which he returned to Texas to jog at a favorite athletic
club.

"Looking ahead, Bush's tentative schedule leading up to Labor Day
also indicates that he will only be on the campaign trail four
days a week. Bush officials, hit by questions about his zest for
the hustings, produced a statistical tally of his campaign stops
last week that suggested he was working harder than Gore."

A second LAT piece contains this revealing paragraph: "Karen
Hughes, Bush's communications director, said that Bush has not
gone off message. Bush is actually shifting his strategy, she
said, and 'throughout the fall campaign, we will have multiple
messages. That's the nature of the fall campaign.'"

The New York Times sees great significance in the Bush camp
pushing to yank a harsh � and misleading � Republican National
Committee ad that showed Gore stammering to defend President
Clinton's veracity, based on a six-year-old interview. The ad's
cancellation Wednesday "has exposed tensions within the Bush
campaign over whether to go negative against the vice president
now," the paper says. (Disarray alert!)

Bush now says he blocked the ad before it ran, but "despite his
insistence that voters abhor negative advertising and yearn for
an elevated discourse, some of his advisers had argued that the
party should run the advertisement, officials close to the
discussions said. Mr. Bush's objections aside, the officials said
that his campaign was still poised to run other commercials that
raise questions about Mr. Gore's truthfulness and ethics."

"There's plenty to let loose on," said one Bush adviser. "We can
have a pretty effective fusillade. All the research has been
done. It's all there."

"Some Bush advisers were so determined that the campaign play
hardball against Mr. Gore that they urged that the commercial be
used even after concerns were raised about its fairness,
according to people close to the discussions. The night before
the advertisement was pulled, Matthew Dowd, a Bush campaign
official, attended a focus group at which the Republicans sought
reaction to an assortment of possible advertisements, including
the one that was shelved. And � here it comes � such debates
"take on an urgency as polls show the race is tightening."

A second NYT piece delivers the flip side of the
Bush-is-struggling story line by highlighting the seemingly
soaring fortunes of his opponent.

"In the last three weeks, as he has watched the country and the
polls respond approvingly to his selection of a running mate, to
his separation from President Clinton, to his speech to the
Democratic National Convention, and to a picturesque
postconvention cruise down the Mississippi, Mr. Gore is finally
in a political groove.

"It has clearly made him a better candidate, firmer in his
purpose, confident in his message, comfortable in his skin. . . .
If Mr. Gore defeats Gov. George W. Bush in November, historians
will undoubtedly see this period as a turning point. And voter
surveys released yesterday show that Mr. Gore is on a roll."

Better. Firmer. Confident. Comfortable. On a roll. Doesn't get
much better than that.

USA Today weighs in by noting that while the vice president's
attacks on Bush's domestic policies are nothing new, "Gore's
punches now seem to be scoring among registered voters.

"This past week Bush appeared to be on the defensive,
acknowledging he may need to do a better job of explaining his
tax cut plan, while his aides countered that Gore has resorted to
distortion and 'class warfare' . . .

"Gore's campaign spokesman Chris Lehane said Bush's slippage in
the polls buttresses a point the campaign has been making all
along: 'The reason George W. Bush has been having such a
difficult week is because it's impossible to defend the
indefensible or explain the unexplainable.'

"Gore himself has come across as a looser, more energized
candidate since the convention."

The Washington Post serves up an issue-based story on Bush in
Louisiana, trotting out a high school football coach who says
yes, he wants the big tax cut proposed by the Texas governor. Yet
Bush "continued to roll out new spending initiatives," announcing
a plan "to boost federal funding by $600 million over five years
for historically black colleges and institutions that serve large
Hispanic student populations.

But The Post was an early entrant in the disarray sweepstakes,
reporting on Tuesday: "After five months in firm command of the
presidential race, Texas Gov. George W. Bush suddenly finds
himself on the defensive, behind in polls and struggling to fend
off attacks on his policies."

Bush was "fumbling" to explain his tax cut during this "awkward"
period and pursuing a campaign style "that has often been
described as leisurely," the story said. "Bush also seems to be
experiencing a bout of the bloopers that beset him during the
primaries. Nothing can be further than the truth," he said today
while rebutting criticism from Gore. During a 15-minute speech
Monday night, he mistook 'terrors' for 'tariffs' and 'hostile'
for 'hostage' (twice in one sentence), and suggested President
Clinton had been in office four years instead of eight.

The Washington Times, a self-described conservative newspaper (a
headline today describes a bill to abolish the estate tax by
using the GOP label "death tax,") doesn't think much of the
recent spate of Bush-bashing.

While playing up the one poll that shows Bush 2 points ahead of
Gore (with a 2.1 percent margin of error,) the paper observes
quite correctly that "some in the press are focusing once again
on Mr. Bush's rhetorical bloopers and depicting his campaign as
going on the defensive.

Bush spokeswoman Mindy Tucker said "they might want first to look
at some video footage of the boat tour Mr. Gore just finished and
see the gaffes he made on the way down the Mississippi River."
But it is Mr. Bush's linguistic errors and halting attempts at
budget talk that much of the press has focused on. Bush partisans
say the press is playing into the Gore campaign line that the
Texas governor is not smart enough to be president.

Citing examples from the Los Angeles Times, Washington Post and
Associated Press, the piece says that "Mr. Bush has tripped over
his tongue before, but so have Mr. Gore and his mentor, President
Clinton."

With Bush slipping in the polls, the sublimated journalistic
instinct to offer advice has kicked into overdrive. Armchair
quarterbacks, particularly on the right, think they know EXACTLY
what the Bushies need to do to get back in the game � if only the
Austin brain trust could be persuaded to listen.

Rich Lowry, editor of National Review, says Bush needs to dust
himself off and kick some tail.

Bush's natural instinct, says Lowry, is to chide Gore for being
too aggressive in his "fighter for the people" mode. Bush, after
all, has been pledging a more civil tone in Washington. But such
an approach, he says, would be flat wrong:

"No one really cares about any of that. In a similar way, no one
cares that Gore says he's going to 'fight' (process), as long as
they agree with what he says he's fighting for (substance).
Indeed, unless kept within some limits, Bush's bipartisanship
risks becoming incoherent. Should the voters elect Bush with a
Democratic Congress, so he can really work on a bipartisan basis?
. . .

"As a tactic, Bush's positive emphasis was working for long time
because it kept Gore in a box � every time he attacked, it
reinforced the idea that he is a 'war-room' politician just like
Clinton. But now Bush may be in the box. The Bush campaign has
always said that if attacked it will rebut. Well, now Gore is not
attacking Bush directly, but corporate America. Would it
constitute 'going negative,' for Bush to rebut on its behalf?

"The Bush campaign would be foolish to allow itself to get hung
up on such questions. It needs to respond aggressively to Gore,
on substance, not process and without mincing words: Gore, it
should say, is simply anti-business . . .

"In short, it has been useful so far for the Bush campaign to
play to the public's impatience with political argument. But now
it's time actually to engage in some."

Or would the press simply view that as another sign of
desperation?

� 2000 The Washington Post Company



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