From: http://www.portraitofamerica.com/html/poll-842.html September 6, 2000 Electoral College Analysis by: Scott Rasmussen Back in the summer, Portrait of America polls and others showed George W. Bush with a large lead over Al Gore in the Electoral College. However, as we pointed out at the time, a swing of just 5 points in the popular vote would create a much closer battle in the Electoral College. With the conventions behind us, weve had a five- point swing in the popular vote, and the Electoral College vote is, as we predicted, much closer. There are a total of 538 Electoral Votes; 270 are required to win the Presidency; and, neither candidate has a clear path to that magic number. Bush starts with a base of 16 states that voted Republican in each of the last 4 elections. These states have 135 Electoral Votes. Of these states, only North Carolina is considered a possibility for poaching by the Gore team, but the home state of Rasmussen Research must still be considered a likely state for the GOP. Five states have voted for the GOP three times in the last four elections (Bill Clinton managed to win each of these states just once). Bush would like to count on these five states (Florida, Georgia, Montana, Colorado, and Arizona) and their 57 Electoral Votes. However, Florida appears to be very much in play based on the most recent Portrait of America poll in that state. Weve also polled in Georgia since the convention season and found Bush does have a comfortable lead there (47% to 39%). So, George W. Bush has a base of 192 Electoral Votes to build upon and only Floridas 25 votes are seriously contested. Al Gore starts with a smaller base of nine states plus the District of Columbia, which have voted for the Democrats the last 3 elections. These states account for 94 Electoral Votes. However, two of the Democratic base states (Oregon and Washington) are proving troublesome for the Vice-President. In fact, a Portrait of America telephone survey conducted in Washington after the Democratic convention found Bush still leading Gore 46% to 37%. Well be polling again in Oregon soon. Moving beyond the solid Democratic base, most pundits assume California will end up in the Democratic column this fall. The latest Portrait of America telephone survey in California finds the Vice-President ahead by 5 points. The vital importance of California to Gore can best be understood by recognizing that if you added Californias votes to the Bush base, Bush would have 246 Electoral Votes to the Vice Presidents 94. In that scenario, Bush would need to win just 24 of the remaining 198 Electoral Votes to become President. On the other hand, adding California to Gores base brings the Vice President to 148 Electoral Votes. Not quite up with Bushs 192, but pretty close. Its also pretty safe to assume Gore will add Connecticut to his column. A Portrait of America survey conducted in that state at the height of Bushs bounce found Gore would take Connecticut with Lieberman on the ticket. Connecticuts eight Electoral Votes bring the Democrats to 156. So, there are 18 remaining states with 190 Electoral Votes that will probably determine the election. Each of these 18 states has voted with the winner in the last four Presidential Elections. Of these 18, weve polled in three since the end of the convention season. Pennsylvania, with 23 votes, is leaning towards Gore (43% to 38%). Michigan, with 18 votes, is leaning towards Bush (42% to 38%). Missouri is a dead heat (41% to 41%). If you add these leaners, its Bush 210, Gore 179. Remember, 270 is the magic number. The remaining key states, in each of which Rasmussen Research will conduct surveys over the next couple of weeks, are: Illinois (22 votes), Ohio (21), New Jersey (15), Wisconsin (11), Tennessee (11), Maryland (10), Louisiana (9), Kentucky (8), Arkansas (6), New Mexico (5), West Virginia (5), Maine (4), New Hampshire (4), Nevada (4), and Delaware (3). What this tells us is that voters in a handful of states will determine the election. As we poll in these states over the next couple of months, the number of toss-up states will decline and we will be free to focus on a few key states for election night. Realistically, it is probable one candidate or the other will have clearly wrapped up the needed Electoral Majority before Election Day arrives. Keep in mind these numbers allow us a few basic assumptions. On the GOP side, the big assumption is that Bush can carry Florida. Given George W. Bushs brother Jeb governs the Sunshine State, and polls have consistently found the race to be somewhat close, this is not unreasonable, but is far from certain. For the Democrats, the biggest assumption is California. Bush is closer there than many people thought he would be, but the state is still leaning to Gore. Its also likely many undecided voters are torn between Gore and Nader, so the Vice President may have a little more cushion than the numbers indicate. While California may be fairly safe for the Democrats, Washington and Oregon may be more problematic. Al Gore has trailed in Washington and Oregon all year according to Portrait of America surveys and other data. For Washington, this includes polling conducted since the conventions have been completed and the Gore bounce has taken hold. To keep up with the latest in the Electoral College, keep coming back to Rasmussen Research data on the Portrait of America site. Well be adding new state polls on a daily basis and drawing special attention to the toss-up states and any surprises along the way. For a summary list of who leads in which states, click here. To see a description of how the Electoral College works visit the Federal Election Commissions web site. In addition to the individual state surveys, Rasmussen Research is conducting a nightly nation-wide tracking poll measuring the popular vote for President. To review the most recent data, click here. We poll every week to determine which issues are the most important to American voters. For a summary of the issues that voters find important, and which candidate has the edge on each issue click here. ================================================================= Kadosh, Kadosh, Kadosh, YHVH, TZEVAOT FROM THE DESK OF: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> *Mike Spitzer* <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> ~~~~~~~~ <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> The Best Way To Destroy Enemies Is To Change Them To Friends Shalom, A Salaam Aleikum, and to all, A Good Day. ================================================================= <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/">www.ctrl.org</A> DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. Proselytizing propagandic screeds are unwelcomed. Substance�not soap-boxing�please! These are sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory'�with its many half-truths, mis- directions and outright frauds�is used politically by different groups with major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought. That being said, CTRLgives no endorsement to the validity of posts, and always suggests to readers; be wary of what you read. CTRL gives no credence to Holocaust denial and nazi's need not apply. Let us please be civil and as always, Caveat Lector. ======================================================================== Archives Available at: http://peach.ease.lsoft.com/archives/ctrl.html <A HREF="http://peach.ease.lsoft.com/archives/ctrl.html">Archives of [EMAIL PROTECTED]</A> http:[EMAIL PROTECTED]/ <A HREF="http:[EMAIL PROTECTED]/">ctrl</A> ======================================================================== To subscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SUBSCRIBE CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] To UNsubscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SIGNOFF CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] Om
