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Publications of the Center for Security Policy
No. 00-D 80

DECISION BRIEF

25 September 2000

Clinton Legacy Watch: The New World Disorder

(Washington, D.C.): A perfect example of the New World Disorder (NWD) Bill
Clinton and Al Gore are bequeathing to their successors can be found north of
the 38th parallel on the Korean peninsula.

On the one hand, impoverished, Communist North Korea is leading its rich,
democratic neighbor to the south in a diplomatic dance that is mesmerizing
Western policy-makers with visions of sugar-plum treaties, economic engagement
and "peace in our time."

On the other hand, North Korea continues to prepare for war. Worse yet, with
its burgeoning proliferation of ballistic missile and weapons of mass
destruction technology, Pyongyang is sowing the seeds for mayhem elsewhere
around the world. Nowhere does this appear to be more menacingly true than in
that most explosive of tinderboxes: the Middle East.

The latest round of bilateral diplomacy will occur this week as defense
ministers Cho Song-Tae of South Korea and Kim Il-Chol of North Korea meet on
the South Korean island of Cheju. This meeting is expected to address issues
such as trans-border railroad construction, a security hotline between the two
countries and "confidence-building measures."

What North Korea is Really Up To

Unfortunately, there appears to be precious little basis for "confidence" that
North Korea has actually changed course; if not, the upshot of this latest
bilateral fandango may be to exacerbate the likelihood of conflict on the
Korean peninsula.

Indeed, last Friday's New York Times reported that a new, leaked Pentagon study
concludes that: "While the historic summit between the North and the South
holds the promise of reconciliation and change, no evidence exists of the
fundamental precursors for change. There is little or no evidence of economic
reform or reform-minded leaders, reduction in military or a lessening of anti-
U.S. rhetoric."

Proliferation 'R Us

Worse yet, each passing day seems to bring fresh evidence of North Korea's
determined contribution to a more disorderly -- if not a vastly more dangerous -
- planet. Its dictator, Kim Jong-Il, regards ballistic missiles as an export
commodity, one of the few things that his country produces that can provide its
bankrupt regime with infusions of hard currency. He recently acknowledged that
his country is selling missile technology to its fellow rogue states. These
include:

Iran. Tehran has just conducted its latest flight test of the so-called Shahab-
3 ballistic missile, believed to have been derived from North Korea's No Dong
missile. When deployed, it will be capable of delivering chemical, biological
or even small nuclear weapons against Israel.

In the past, the Iranian government paraded a Shahab-3 through the streets of
Tehran, accompanied by posters that said, "Israel should be wiped from the map"
and "The USA can do nothing." While the most recent test apparently failed
shortly after lift-off, it is unlikely that the Islamists in Tehran will be
dissuaded from pursuing the means by which they can threaten immense harm to
the "Great Satan," its friends and interests.

Libya. On September 24, the London Sunday Telegraph revealed that Libya has
completed its own, ominous missile deal with North Korea. According to the
Telegraph, Muammar Gaddafi's unreconstructed, terrorist-sponsoring regime has
secretly taken delivery of the first of fifty No Dong missiles and seven mobile
launchers from Pyongyang:

"Despite co-operating closely with Iran and Yugoslavia on developing missile
technology, both the Libyan missile projects have encountered severe
development problems. The deal with Pyongyang will enable Col. Gaddafi to
bypass his own development programs as the North Koreans will provide him with
ready-made ballistic missiles which will soon be able to pose a significant
threat to the security of Israel and southern Europe."

North Korea is said to have supplied, in addition to the missiles themselves,
nine engineers who will presumably not only abet Libya in wielding the threat
its No Dongs represent but will assist Gaddafi in acquiring still-longer-range
delivery capabilities for his weapons of mass destruction.

Syria. On September 25, the Israeli daily Ha'aretz reported that "Syria
successfully tested its first North Korean ground-to-ground Scud-D missile
early Saturday morning" and that Israel's "military establishment was somewhat
surprised by the model of missile fired." The longer range and mobility of the
Scud-Ds mean that Syrian forces will be able to hold Israel at risk from a much
larger area, considerably decreasing the likelihood that the vaunted Israeli
air force will be able to locate and disable these weapons before they are used
to rain weapons of mass destruction down on the Jewish State.

Iraq/Sudan. North Korea is also reportedly helping Iraq to build a Scud missile
manufacturing plant near Khartoum in the Sudan. Such a facility will presumably
greatly facilitate the proliferation of ballistic missiles in Africa, the
Middle East and beyond.

Clinton-Gore: Exacerbating the N.W.D.

In light of these developments, it is mind-boggling that the Clinton-Gore
Administration persists in seeking normalized ties with North Korea and down-
playing -- the newly leaked Pentagon report to the contrary notwithstanding --
the real risks associated with its continued appeasement of Pyongyang.

No less disturbing are two other, related Clinton-Gore policy mistakes: First,
the Administration is trying to nail down a multilateral agreement creating a
so-called "Global Action Plan Against Missile Proliferation (GAP)." This
initiative was spawned by Russian President Vladimir Putin who, during a visit
to Pyongyang, cooked up the idea of paying the North Koreans to give up their
ballistic missiles and space launch vehicles (rockets inherently capable of
being used to deliver not only payloads into space but weapons to earth-bound
targets thousands of miles away) as a means of derailing U.S. missile defenses.
Even though Kim Jong Il subsequently dismissed the idea, the U.S. and others
are actively proposing to launch satellites for the North (and other ballistic
missile wannabe states), perhaps even paying for the privilege of doing so!

Second, President Clinton has deferred to his successor any action on deploying
competent American missile defenses. By so doing, he has compounded the danger
already made too real by his earlier, adamant opposition to fielding effective
anti-missile systems: The likelihood that the United States will be obliged to
deploy such defenses after they are needed, rather than before.

The Bottom Line

Of course, if Israel or someplace else we care about -- to say nothing of the
United States, itself -- is struck by a ballistic missile-delivered weapon of
mass destruction, the debate about deploying missile defenses will be over. In
its place will be a national commitment to a Manhattan Project-style crash
program imbued with the utmost national priority and a charter to put an array
of protective layers in place at the earliest possible moment.

But by then, the true, menacing nature of the New World Disorder that is going
to be Bill Clinton's most dangerous legacy will have become evident to all
Americans.
- 30 -

NOTE: The Center's publications are intended to invigorate and enrich the
debate on foreign policy and defense issues. The views expressed do not
necessarily reflect those of all members of the Center's Board of Advisors.
  Top of Page
� 1988-2000, Center for Security Policy

End<{{

>>>One really can't blame Bill Jeff and Al Jr.  The problems were in existence
during George Senior's reign ... the biggest was not knowing *how* to *win* a
war (Iraq, e.g. {go getcha a Ten Years After album just to commemorate}) and
then keep a peace.  Peace makes people nervous, especially after 50 years of
"war".  BJ and AJ were just the second or thrid ripple out of the centre of the
stone toss in the pond ... the momentum carried them along.  A<>E<>R <<<
A<>E<>R

Integrity has no need of rules. -Albert Camus (1913-1960)
+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
The only real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking
new landscapes but in having new eyes. -Marcel Proust
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The libertarian therefore considers one of his prime educational
tasks is to spread the demystification and desanctification of the
State among its hapless subjects.  His task is to demonstrate
repeatedly and in depth that not only the emperor but even the
"democratic" State has no clothes; that all governments subsist
by exploitive rule over the public; and that such rule is the reverse
of objective necessity.  He strives to show that the existence of
taxation and the State necessarily sets up a class division between
the exploiting rulers and the exploited ruled.  He seeks to show that
the task of the court intellectuals who have always supported the State
has ever been to weave mystification in order to induce the public to
accept State rule and that these intellectuals obtain, in return, a
share in the power and pelf extracted by the rulers from their deluded
subjects.
[[For a New Liberty:  The Libertarian Manifesto, Murray N. Rothbard,
Fox & Wilkes, 1973, 1978, p. 25]]

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