-Caveat Lector-
Financial Vulnerabilities Conference
THE NEXT FINANCIAL CRISIS:
WARNING SIGNS, DAMAGE CONTROL, AND IMPACT
Keynote Speaker: ALAN GREENSPAN
July 12-13, 2000
Agenda
Wednesday, July 12
11:00 - 12:00
p.m.
REGISTRATION
12:00 - 1:40
p.m.
LUNCHEON
IT'S THE FINANCIAL MARKETS, STUPID!
A Dialogue with Hannes Androsch and Henry
Kaufman
How is the current "marketized" environment
different from past eras? In this new
environment, are markets even more prone to
excesses that lead to instability? Does this
instability create new complications for foreign
policy and national security? What can be done?
Hannes Androsch, Chairman, Androsch
International Management Consulting; former
Vice Chancellor of Austria
Henry Kaufman, President, Henry Kaufman &
Company, Inc.
Presider:
Leslie H. Gelb, President, Council on Foreign
Relations
1:40 - 2:20
p.m.
Break
2:20 - 3:20
p.m.
STRESS TESTING THE SYSTEM
War-gaming the next financial crisis: Learning
from the Council's Policy Simulation.
Jessica Einhorn, former Managing Director, The
World Bank
James R. Jones, Senior Counsel, Manatt, Phelps
& Phillips; former Chairman & CEO, American
Stock Exchange
Presider:
Roger M. Kubarych, Henry Kaufman Senior
Fellow for International Economics & Finance,
Council on Foreign Relations
3:20- 3:40 p.m.
Break
3:40 - 4:45
p.m.
BREAKOUT SESSIONS I :
WARNING SIGNS AND DAMAGE CONTROL
Financial, Economic & Political Stress Testing
Participants will attend one of the four Regional
Breakout Groups OR the Workshop on Scenario
Building and Simulations
A: Regional Breakout Groups:
What are the regional and country vulnerabilities
and pressure points? What are the implications?
� Group 1: China
Robert S. Ross, Prfessor, Harvard University,
Fairbank Center for East Asian Research
Donald Roth, Managing Partner, Emerging
Markets Partnership
Presider:
Winston Lord, former Assistant Secretary of
State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs; former
U.S. Ambassador to China
� Group 2: Latin America
Lacey Gallagher, Director, Latin America
Economies, Credit Suisse First Boston
Corporation
Martin Schubert, Chairman, Eurinam Group
Presider:
Brian O�Neill, Latin America Regional Executive,
The Chase Manhattan Corporation
� Group 3: South Asia
Punita Kumar-Sinha, Senior Portfolio Manager
and Executive Director, CIBC Oppenheimer
David Unger, Editorial Board, The New York
Times
Presider:
Robert J. Pelosky, Managing Director, Morgan
Stanley Dean Witter
� Group 4: Sub-Saharan Africa
Kwesi Botchwey, Director of Africa Research
and Programs, Center for International
Development, Harvard University; former Minister
of Finance, Republic of Ghana
Brian C. McK. Henderson, Senior Vice
President, Merrill Lynch International, Inc.
Presider:
Vincent Mai, Chairman & CEO, AEA Investors
Inc.
B: Workshop on Scenario Building and
Simulations
A practical guide for designing and using
simulation as a tool for improved
risk-management and strategic-planning.
William J. Flanagan, Senior Managing Director,
Cantor Fitzgerald
Peter Schwartz, Chairman, Global Business
Network; former head of scenario planning at
Royal Dutch/Shell
Presider:
David A. Duffie, Visiting Military Fellow 1999-00,
Council on Foreign Relations
4:45 - 5:10
p.m.
Break
5:10 - 6:10
p.m.
BREAKOUT SESSIONS II :
WARNING SIGNS AND DAMAGE CONTROL
Financial, Economic & Political Stress Testing
Participants will attend one of the four Regional
Breakout Groups OR the Workshop on Scenario
Building and Simulations
A: Regional and Country Breakout Groups:
What are the regional and country vulnerabilities
and pressure points? What are the implications?
� Group 1: Europe and Russia
Scott Horton, Senior Partner, Patterson,
Belknap, Webb & Tyler
Heiko Thieme, Chairman & President, American
Heritage Management Corporation
Martin Walker, Public Policy Fellow, Woodrow
Wilson International Center for Scholars*
Presider:
Charles A. Kupchan, Senior Fellow & Director,
European Studies, Council on Foreign Relations
� Group 2: Japan
Gerry Curtis, Professor of Political Science,
Columbia University
Kathleen R. Flaherty, President & COO, Winstar
International
Presider:
Bernard Wysocki, Economic News Editor, The
Wall Street Journal
� Group 3: North Africa and the Middle East
Mohammed Abalkhail, former Minister of
Finance and National Economy, Kingdom of Saudi
Arabia
Frank Savage, Chairman, Alliance International
Capital Management
Presider:
Edward Djerejian, Director, The James A. Baker
III Institute for Public Policy; former Assistant
Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs;
former U.S. Ambassador to Israel and the Syrian
Arab Public
� Group 4: Southeast Asia
Kishore Mahbubani, Ambassador, Permanent
Mission of the Republic of Singapore to the UN
Tien-Yu Sieh, Senior Vice President and Equity
Portfolio Manager, Scudder Kemper Investments,
Inc.
Dov Zakheim, CEO, SPC International Corp.
Presider:
Kathryn Pilgrim, Anchor/Correspondent, CNN
B: Workshop on Scenario Building and
Simulations
A practical guide for designing and using
simulation as a tool for improved
risk-management and strategic-planning
Peter Schwartz, Chairman, Global Business
Network; former head of scenario planning at
Royal Dutch/Shell
Presider: David Gordon, National Intelligence
Officer, National Intelligence Council
6:30 - 7:30
p.m.
COCKTAIL RECEPTION
7:30 - 9:00
p.m.
Dinner at the Yale Club
How to improve decision-making in an
increasingly complex global system.
Keynote
Speaker:
ALAN GREENSPAN, Chairman, Board of
Governers of the Federal Reserve System
Introduction by:
Peter G. Peterson, Chairman, The Blackstone
Group; Chairman, Council on Foreign Relations
Thursday, July 13
8:00 - 8:30
a.m.
CONTINENTAL BREAKFAST
8:30 - 10:00
a.m.
A THREE-WAY DEBATE:
HIGH-TECH BUBBLE - OR NOT?
Yes, and when it bursts, it will bring down
the rest of the market.
Robert Shiller, Stanley B. Resor Professor
of Economics, Cowles Foundation, Yale
University
Yes, but the market at large can absorb the
shock.
Craig Drill, Chairman & CEO, Craig Drill
Partners
No, it�s a precursor of better things to
come for the market at large.
Lawrence Kudlow, Chief Economist,
Schroders
Presider: Robert D. Hormats, Vice President,
Goldman Sachs International; former Assistant
Secretary of State for Economic and Business
Affairs
10:00 - 10:30
a.m.
Break
10:30 - 11:45
a.m.
WORST CASE SCENARIO:
Another 1987-Like Market Break?
What Might Be the Economic and Political
Backlashes?
Will Main Street stick with Wall Street in the next
financial crisis? How will the public respond given
the greater participation of average investors in
the markets? Will there be a political backlash?
What could be done to deal with the markets,
possible lawsuits and political reaction? Is the
international spread of an equity culture at risk?
John J. Brennan, Chairman & CEO, The
Vanguard Group, Inc.
James Grant, Editor, Grant's Interest Rate
Observer
Presider:
George J.W. Goodman, Chairman & CEO, Adam
Smith Global Television
11:45 - 12:15
p.m.
Break
12:15 - 2:00
p.m.
LUNCHEON PANEL:
LOOKING BEYOND NEAR-TERM
VULNERABILITIES: THE NEXT MARKET
DRIVERS
What will be the next compelling investment
story? Can information technology continue to
lead the financial markets? Or will exciting
advances in human genome science, robotics or
other technologies move to the fore?
Ray Kurzweil, Inventor, entrepreneur, and
author of The Age of Spiritual Machines
Presider:
Maurice R. Greenberg, Chairman & CEO,
American International Group, Inc.; Vice
Chairman, Council on Foreign Relations
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