-Caveat Lector-
The Meaning Behind the Violence
0010 GMT, 001005
The significance of the current violence between Israelis and
Palestinians
should not be underestimated.
It originates in both the deepest fears of both sides and in the
basic
global and regional geopolitics. Its outcome is to force both
sides to deal
honestly and openly with the fact that their fundamental hopes
and
aspirations are incompatible. The situation is dangerous.
Weeks after it ended, the Camp David summit has effectively
destroyed
the center � and the centrists � in the political lives of
Israelis and
Palestinians. With both at the mercy of their hard-line
opponents, Yasser
Arafat�s leadership will probably survive, while that of Israeli
Prime
Minister Ehud Barak probably will not. The peace process itself
has been
mutilated beyond recognition.
The root of the violence lies in the primordial terrors of two
peoples. For
the Jews, the defining experience of the epoch was the Holocaust.
Two
existential principles were derived from the Holocaust: The first
was that
even the most civilized people cannot be trusted, and the second
was
that Jews could trust only themselves. No promises, no
agreements, no
paper could provide safety. Israel learned from the Holocaust
that there is
danger everywhere and to trust no one. Regardless of what the
Palestinians say, they mean to annihilate the Jews.
For the Palestinians, the primordial event was their forced
expulsion from
their home. They recall two things: the remorselessness of the
Israelis
and the fact that no one, including their Arab brothers, would
reverse
their catastrophe. Beneath the rhetoric, they were alone. No UN
resolution, no Arab League summit could assist them. No one would
help
them return to their homes or even aid them in their diaspora.
The Israelis
meant to deny them any solution, regardless of what they said.
Nothing can be done about these primordial sensibilities because,
in a
very real sense, they are both true. The best that can be
achieved is to
soften the harshness of the vision. The means to that end can be
found in
the accommodations of everyday life. The paradox is that Israelis
and
Palestinians can accommodate themselves to each other much more
easily on a practical, day-to-day basis, as long as they don�t
have to face
fundamental questions.
The recent Camp David meetings forced everyone to face the
fundamental
questions again. Would Israel make room for a Palestinian state?
Would
that Palestinian state have troops that could make war with
Israel? Who
controlled Jerusalem? In practical terms, Israelis and
Palestinians were
making accommodations. Neither could formally admit the
accommodations they were making because that would require them
to
face, and put aside, their primordial fears. That was impossible.
Nevertheless, the Americans tried.
Thus, the geopolitical irresistible force � the United States �
has now
collided with the psychological immovable object � national
terrors. The
United States is the inescapable reality of the region. It
underwrites
Israeli defense capabilities; Israel cannot ignore the United
States.
Therefore, the Palestinians must define themselves in terms of
American
will. For the United States, all matters involve problem solving.
The
concept of a problem that is insoluble is offensive to
Washington. The
concept of a problem becoming worse when you try to solve it is
incomprehensible.
The results were the pictures of Palestinian police firing at
Israeli troops
and of Palestinian children cowering before Israeli soldiers.
There was a
direct line between Camp David and those pictures. Camp David
opened
the possibility of both sides abandoning their fears. Jews were
supposed
to accept the idea of a Palestinian nation-state that did not
threaten to
annihilate them. Palestinians were supposed to accept the idea
they
would never return home and that they could trust the Israelis to
let them
live in autonomy and peace. Two people who cannot separate also
can�t
live together.
The Camp David meetings have � weeks later � destroyed Barak�s
ability
to govern. The thought of Palestinian sovereignty over Jerusalem
triggered fears of a holocaust. The idea that there would be
armed
Palestinians in a Palestinian nation that would not use those
weapons
against Jews was preposterous. Arafat�s peacemaking was also
destroyed. It was one thing to live with the Palestinian
diaspora. It was
another to accept it.
The center could not hold under the pressure of President Bill
Clinton�s
diplomacy. The Israelis� worst fears were realized. The
Palestinian police
firing on Israeli troops demonstrated that the opponents of Oslo
were
correct. The worst fears of the Palestinians were realized, too.
Israeli
troops were firing on Palestinian children, and no one in the
world came
to help.
Camp David has crushed the center of politics in Israel and among
the
Palestinians. The growing, tentative hope among some that the
worst
fears they harbored would turn out to be overblown has been
shattered.
The fears about a Palestinian state have now been validated among
mainstream Israelis. The fears about Israeli intentions have now
been
validated among mainstream Palestinians. The small, informal
solutions
have been dissolved in favor of a return to rigid hostility.
This will leave scars for a generation. Israel will re-impose
harsh security
measures, perhaps disarming the Palestinian police if
Palestinians resort
to resistance and perhaps insurrection. Neither side will feel
any
justification in suspending their worst fears. It is difficult to
imagine how
Barak will survive politically. As a result, Benjamin Netanyahu
is likely to
return to power. Arafat, ever the survivor, will continue, but
his ability to
negotiate and make concessions will evaporate. Everyone will
become
locked into their own nightmares.
It is unlikely to return to the period where Egypt and Syria
confronted
Israel � but unlikely is not the same as impossible. The fact is
that the
Camp David talks ushered in a new, dangerous and, in some ways,
unpredictable dynamic in the region. All complacent bets are off.
Even if
the current situation is brought under control, the scars will
take a long
time to heal.
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