-Caveat Lector-
Level with voters on the surplus
Younger people will ultimately pay the bill
for politicians�
political shell games
Is Texas Gov. George W. Bush credible on what's to be done with the surplus?
Is Vice President Al Gore?
By Meredith Bagby
MSNBC CONTRIBUTOR
Oct. 10 � What the devil is the budget surplus and where did it come
from? Should I believe Vice President Al Gore when he says we should use the
budget surplus to shore up Social Security, extend Medicare and retire the
entire national debt. Or do I support Texas Gov. George W. Bush who wants to
give the American people
BEWARE MR. and Ms. Voter! If these politicians thought they could
get away with it, they�d have you convinced that the surplus could not only
fix Social Security, lower taxes and solve homelessness, but it will also
reunite you with your ex, take you to a higher level of consciousness and
find your nephew a Pikachu Pokeman playing card.
But guess what? The surplus is not the secret to the universe. In
fact, many economists argue either that the slightest downturn in the
economy could wipe out the extra funds or that the surplus doesn�t actually
exist at all. Confused? You should be.
NO GUFFAWS FOR FUNNY MONEY
First of all, politicians are using some funny numbers to project
today�s and tomorrow�s surpluses. Current surplus projections assume that
the government�s discretionary spending does not increase at all over the
next ten years and that inflation and population growth are near zero.
Factor those oversights in and the projected surplus shrinks from $2.2
trillion over the next ten years to $300 billion, according to the Office of
Management and Budget and the Congressional Budget Office.
If these politicians thought they could get away with it, they�d have you
convinced that the surplus could...reunite you with your ex, take you to a
higher level of consciousness and find your nephew a Pikachu Pokeman playing
card.
Factor in some taxes that are scheduled to expire and a bit of
emergency spending and the surplus shrinks to a big fat zero. Some argue
that the only reason we have a surplus is that our roaring economy has
produced unexpected tax dollars. But that can�t continue forever.
To make things worse, for years politicians have used monies from the
Social Security Trust Fund to support current spending. That�s kind of like
a corporation raiding its pension fund to keep from going bankrupt. If we
made Social Security an �off-budget� item that was protected from greedy
politicians� hands, we would have gone broke years ago.
And that�s not all. To paint a rosier picture, politicians have also
redefined the national debt. The national debt used to be the total monies
outstanding in the form of government securities (i.e. treasury bills/bonds
held by individuals, corporations, as well as securities owned by the Social
Security Trust Fund and federal pensions). But today politicians have
�forgotten� about the debt owed to Social Security and to federal pensions �
a full $2 trillion.
What significance does Vice President Al Gore's economic plan have for
young voters?
That magically shrinks the debt from $5.7 trillion to $3.6
trillion and allows Gore to say that we can pay off the debt by 2012 or Bush
to say that we can provide a $1.7 trillion tax cut without increasing the
national debt.
BREEDING CYNICISM
Who should be mad about this trickery? All of us should. However, the
younger generations should be the most vocal. That�s because after the
election is over and for decades to come, we�ll be paying the bill with our
tax dollars. �Members of Generation X have the right to know why the
president and senior members of Congress are bragging about surpluses while
the national debt still grows,� says Rich Thau, executive director of Third
Millennium. �This is another example of the type of irresponsible
�leadership� that breeds cynicism and causes young people to believe that
nothing the government does matters to them.�
Where do we turn for a solution to our debt problem? As far as I
know, there aren�t any politicians that are talking straight about the
budget. I�m just hoping that someone, somewhere in the presidential debates
asks the hard questions, �How do you get to those numbers? Why should we
believe there will be a surplus at all? What do we do if there isn�t? Do you
have a rainy day plan?� Until then we�d probably have better luck if we
elected Deepak Chopra to positively think the debt away.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
----
Meredith Bagby is author of �We�ve Got Issues: The Get-Real, No B.S.,
Guilt-Free Guide to What Really Matters.� She is an expert on the concerns
of young voters and a contributor to MSNBC.
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