-Caveat Lector-
---------- Forwarded message ----------
Date: Thu, 12 Oct 2000 13:03:47 -0500
From: Wallace Milam <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Subject: The Use of Polls
As a political science teacher (and an anti-Goron), I have considerable interest
in national polls, polling methods, and polling data. I study a variety of different
polls, and would like to offer some comments about certain polls and polling methods.
(1) National polls with fewer than 1,000 respondents are unworthy of consideration.
(2) Polls which weight samples by % of registered voters are inaccurate, because
Republicans are more likely to vote, once registered, than are Democrats.
(3) Newsweek polling is horrific. I believe I am accurate in saying that no
Newsweek poll in 20 years has ever shown a Republican leading before the month of
October, and that includes Reagan-Carter
and Reagan-Mondale. Newsweek and the Graham empire are subsidiaries of the Democratic
party.
(4) The major parties routinely use false or misleading polls
to
(a) energize financial and other support from within the party
and
(b) to appeal to the American tendency to want to support a
winner. There is a classic example of such a poll on the
Internet. It can be found at electyou.com. There you will find
an electoral map showing "current" trends, followed by a chart
listing state-by-state totals, the date of the survey and the
name of the polling organization. Immediately, informed readers
will see the problems. Arizona is solidly in Gore's camp. So is
Pennsylvania. Washington and Oregon are leaning toward Gore.
Such nonsense raises lots of questions. Then the reader checks
the chart beneath. Some polls are over a month old. Then check
out the polling organizations. Some 15-20 such "organizations"
are listed. Most of these would not be recognized by anyone.
Some seem to be consumer research groups! I suspect that some of
the "polling organizations" are fictitious. The other strategy
seems to be to choose the "best-case scenario" for the Gore and
publish that poll, ignoring those before and since. When one
reads the "small print" about the electyou.com site, it is
learned that the site is operated by a Georgia-based organization
which provides the service mainly to Democratic entities around
the country. No information is given about methods used in the
various polls. I feel certain that the site has no knowledge
about the methods of the various pollsters it uses (and would not
want to have such information). The site's major purpose seems
to be to say to subscribers, "Look how well we are doing. Join
in. Join in. Share this with the gullible."
(5) The most accurate poll, by far, is operated by the
Rasmussen Group. I have followed it through several elections.
Their methods are sound, their samples are large and they sample
daily. Based on a study of Rasmussen (and other polls), certain
trends seem evident:
(a) There has actually been few changes in the
dynamics of this presidential election since spring. Bush was a
new face, lost some support during the nomination process (mostly
due to McCain's attacks--there never was a McCain groundswell
except in New Hampshire). Bush then peaked in the heady days
following the Republican convention. Gore got a brief bump from
the successful Democratic convention. Since that time, the
contest has been bi-layered. At the top layer, undecided voters
bubble up and settle back down to the surface. The bottom layer,
the great body of voters remain unaffected and unchanged.
(b) Gore's first debate disaster is probably
irreparable. His performance--from appearance to
embellishments--labeled him for what had been suspected. At the
same time, he made Bush more human, more likeable and more
accessible by contrast with Gore. He lowered the bar for Bush.
The American people were led to compare mispronunciations with
lies and they did so with devastating results. The Bush
campaign, with a great boost from the Gore people themselves,
succeeded in making Al Gore the issue of the 2000 presidential
campaign. Gore cannot win such a campaign. The "new" Al Gore of
the second debate appeared to be the quintessential "hollow man,"
lacking fire or motivation. It appears that Gore's frequent
embellishments may be the product of so many re-inventions of the
man that Gore is not certain which Gore he is supposed
portraying.
(c) The devastating Nightline and CNN "snap" polls
were shown last night, but have been buried under the Middle East
news of Thursday. I predict that Bush's lead in responsible
polls will be at the 10% mark by weekend.
(d) Barring a major mistake or scandal, this election
is over. The most intriguing question remaining is whether Bush
can capture California or not.
[I AM A TENNESSEAN. IF ANY OF YOU WOULD LIKE
DETAILED INFORMATION ABOUT THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION PROSPECTS IN
TENNESSEE, I WILL BE HAPPY TO SEND IT.]
=================================================================
Kadosh, Kadosh, Kadosh, YHVH, TZEVAOT
FROM THE DESK OF: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
*Mike Spitzer* <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
~~~~~~~~ <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
The Best Way To Destroy Enemies Is To Change Them To Friends
Shalom, A Salaam Aleikum, and to all, A Good Day.
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