-Caveat Lector- from: http://www.dismal.com/thoughts/th_bn_031600_map.stm Click Here: <A HREF="http://www.dismal.com/thoughts/th_bn_031600_map.stm"> Election 2000: Map</A> ----- Final Election Forecast The Dismal Scientist's exclusive economic model predicts the outcome of November's Presidential election. The accompanying map gives a state-by-state breakdown of electoral college votes, and our discussion of the most recent results begins immediately below. You can also view the methodology behind our forecast. Final Discussion: Updated October 2000 With less than a month to go until the election, the final electoral vote tally is unchanged. Gore's electoral vote total remains at 356 to Bush's 182. The only change is that Louisiana's nine electoral votes shift from solid Gore to leaning Gore. A rough estimate of the share of the two-party national popular vote (weighting the individual state estimates by that state's Electoral College votes) yields a popular vote of approximately 52.6% for Gore. There has been little in the past few months on the economic landscape to significantly shake Gore's chances. Higher oil prices have made inflation tick up, but it has remained quite tame. And while the stock market has had a very bad month, the S&P 500 was still up year-over-year through the third quarter (the model takes a two-year moving average of growth rates from the third quarter of 1998 to the third quarter of this year). But of course, Gore and Bush are now deadlocked in the opinion polls. Gore has been unable to make the dual case that he should get credit for the economy (polls show voters give him little) and that Bush threatens the current prosperity. Gore has attempted over and over to link Bush's tax cut to higher deficits and weaker longer-term growth. To date, his criticisms have not been effective. Gore may yet lose the election, confounding the prediction of our model (and all similar ones published). All such models can claim is that given historical patterns and the current economic environment, there is no reason to expect Bush to win. If Bush succeeds in ousting an administration in the most prosperous times in US history, he will have made some history of his own. Methodology Various models have been devised to account for the effect of economic conditions on electoral outcomes. The general form of these models regresses the share of the national vote won on sundry economic variables. Some variant of GDP growth and inflation are the most common explanatory measures used. These models have generally worked well, but there have been failures, most notably some incorrect predictions of a Bush win in 1992. The model estimated by The Dismal Scientist seeks to increase predictive power by taking into account variation in economic performance around the nation. The 1992 election year, for example, was particularly noteworthy in that regional economic conditions were as varied as they had been at any time in the postwar era. Estimation using solely national-level data misses such variation and thus can lead to significant prediction errors. Additionally, since winning the presidency is based upon winning in the electoral college rather than the popular vote, a model that forecasts victory state by state is more in keeping with the spirit of the actual electoral process. Accordingly, the model estimated in this analysis is a fixed effects state-level model, estimated over the past six presidential elections. The dependent variable is the share of the two-party presidential vote won by the incumbent party in a given state. On the state level, the key explanatory economic variable is the growth in real per capita personal income over the two years preceding the election. On the national level, average growth in the CPI and average growth in the S&P 500 over the preceding two years are used as explanatory variables. Values for all of the economic variables are The Dismal Scientist's forecasts through the third quarter. In addition to economic variables, the share of the two-party vote won by the incumbent presidential party in the previous election is included to account for historical party affiliation in a given state. The accuracy of the model is demonstrated by its ability to predict election outcomes. Over the past five elections, the model has successfully predicted nearly 90% of electoral votes on average, never predicting less than 75% of the electoral votes. The strong conclusion for a Democrat win in the 2000 election must be tempered both by the fact that there have been not insignificant inaccuracies in the past, however, and much more by the fact that other factors may prove more important than those included in the model. One obvious example is the extent to which so-called Clinton fatigue hurts the eventual Democratic nominee. Moreover, the model does not explicitly take social issues into account. The election, at least in some states, could turn on noneconomic issues. Indeed, there are signs that rather than challenging the state of the economy, Bush will essentially concede the current stellar conditions, focusing instead on future economic policy, character issues and social issues (to an extent). Electoral College Ordinary voters do not elect the president directly. Under the Constitution, the actual election is conducted by the 538 members of the electoral college. Each state is entitled to nominate one elector for each member of Congress elected by that state. Each state thus gets a minimum of three votes: two for senators and at least one for congressional representative(s). The District of Columbia is also entitled to three electoral votes. Electors are not constitutionally bound to vote for the candidate favored by the voters of their state, but nearly all follow tradition (and often state law) and express the will of their electorate. Updates Releases Today's Economy Calendar Features Articles Links Calculators Dictionary Discussion Dismal Delivery Site Map About Dismal Market Jobs Contact Us Webmaster Suggestions Business Development600 Willowbrook Lane, Suite 600, West Chester, PA 19382-5500 Phone: (610) 696-8700 Copyright � 2000, Economy.com. ----- Aloha, He'Ping, Om, Shalom, Salaam. Em Hotep, Peace Be, All My Relations. Omnia Bona Bonis, Adieu, Adios, Aloha. Amen. 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