-Caveat Lector- http://www.stratfor.com/latinamerica/analysis/0010260025.htm > > _________________________________________________ > > Israel Moves - Quickly - To Beef Up Its Submarine > Force > > > Summary > > Citing "security reasons", the Israeli government > has decided to > speed up the shipment of a new submarine from > Germany. Israel > reportedly has plans to equip the submarine to > attack land-based > targets with nuclear weapons. Israel does not appear > to have > immediate naval security concerns because of its > Arab neighbors. > The delivery of the submarine most likely is > intended to complete a > nuclear land-attack capability to deter the current > crisis from > descending into region-wide war or allow Israel to > fight one, if > necessary. > > Analysis > > The Tekuma, the last of three new, German-built, > Dolphin-class > submarines, has been rushed from Germany to Israel > for "security > reasons", an army spokesman said on military radio > Oct. 24. The > craft has been in Germany while the crew underwent > training. > > The Israeli military appears to be completing the > development of a > second-strike nuclear land-attack capability. > Fighting between > Palestinians and Israelis is likely to go on for > months. And if > tension in the Middle East descends into regional > war, damaging > Israel's land-based nuclear weapons, the Israeli > navy can still > field a surviving submarine-based force capable of > launching an > attack. > > Despite the progress that has been made, the > regional crisis has > not yet ended. Although the key regional actor, > Egypt, has made a > strategic choice for peace, anti-Israeli sentiment > continues to > build, inflamed by continued violence in the > Palestinian > territories. In a weakened state, Israel's prime > minister is > increasingly desperate and his government appears, > as a result, to > have hastened delivery of the new submarine. > _______________________________________________________________ > > For more on the Middle East and Africa, see: > http://www.stratfor.com/MEAF/default.htm > _____________________________________________________________ > > Tekuma is the last of three Dolphin-class > submarines, built and > largely subsidized by Germany expressly for > deployment by the > Israeli navy in Mediterranean waters. The German > decision to > underwrite the Israeli Dolphin program stems from > the 1991 Persian > Gulf War, when Iraq struck Israel with Scuds, > equipped with > warheads at least partially developed by German > firms. > Subsequently, Helmut Kohl, the chancellor at the > time, offered > military assistance, including construction of two > of the three > Dolphin submarines. The Germans helped pay for the > first two; > Israel financed the Tekuma. > > The diesel-powered Dolphins will reportedly replace > Israel's three > aging German submarines, which entered service in > 1977. The 187- > foot Tekuma weighs 1,700 tons and can accommodate a > crew of 35 for > more than one month of continuous operations. The > Dolphin class is > designed for interdiction, surveillance and > special-forces > operations and is designed to travel at maximum > speeds of 20 knots > with a cruising range of 4,500 nautical miles. The > vessel has 10 > torpedo tubes and is capable of launching Harpoon > missiles. > > While the vessel is designed for a standard attack > role, Israel has > comparatively little to fear from the Egyptian or > Syrian navies. > The Egyptian navy is primarily focused on coastal > defense and its > submarine fleet only consists of four old Romeo > class patrol > submarines. The last significant improvement of its > navy was in > 1996; the four subs underwent a $133 million upgrade > to acquire the > capability to fire anti-ship missiles and NT37 > wire-guided > torpedoes. The Syrian navy is in worse shape; its > three Romeo class > submarines are non-operational, according to > London's International > Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). At least one > reportedly > sank pier-side in the mid-1990s. > > Israel's eagerness to deploy the submarine probably > is intended as > a deterrent to regional war. Jane's International > Defense Review > (IDR) reported in September 1999 that sources close > to the German > construction project said Israel was planning to > equip the Dolphins > with a nuclear land-attack capability shortly after > the submarine's > arrival. This was to be done by modifying > U.S.-supplied Sub-Harpoon > missiles with an indigenously developed nuclear > warhead and > guidance kit. Each Dolphin would reportedly be able > to carry five > modified Sub-Harpoons, with a range of 80 miles, as > well as 16 > torpedoes. > __________________________________________________________________ > > For more on Israel, see: > http://www.stratfor.com/MEAF/countries/Israel/default.htm > _____________________________________________________________ > > As well, Israel clearly has an interest in > land-attack missiles. In > January, Israel asked the United States to sell it > 50 Tomahawk > land-attack cruise missiles to enhance its > deep-strike capabilities > under its wide-ranging strategic defense program, > according to > Jane's Missiles and Rockets. It was not clear > whether Israel was > seeking air- or sea-launched variants, but the > mission of the > Israeli navy traditionally coastal defense and > maritime supply > route protection is expanding to include a stronger > deterrent and > survivable nuclear-strike capability. > > Washington rejected Israel's request in March, > prompting concern > that Israel may develop its own indigenous > long-range cruise > missile. Shortly after the rejection, an Israeli > official told > Defense News, "History has taught us that we cannot > wait > indefinitely for Washington to satisfy our military > requirements. > If this weapon system is denied to us, we will have > little choice > but to activate our own defense industry in pursuit > of this needed > capability." > > Indeed, Israel may have already developed cruise > missiles on its > own. The London Sunday Times reported June 18 that > Israel had test- > fired domestic-produced cruise missiles from its > newly acquired > Dolphin-class submarine off Sri Lanka in May. And > the U.S. National > Air Intelligence Center warned the U.S. Congress in > July 1998 that > Israel was developing a cruise missile believed to > be the Rafael- > produced Popeye Turbo missile with a range of 215 > miles that was > expected to be operational by 2002. Although the > Popeye Turbo is > promoted as an air-launched weapon, it may be > adapted for submarine > launch. > > If Israel has managed to create its own > submarine-launched cruise > missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads, it > would mark a > major step in its nuclear capability and throw the > balance of power > further in Israel's favor. > > Israel is clearly concerned that the current crisis > still has > potential to pull in surrounding Arab nations and > blow up into a > regional war. Israeli military doctrine has always > focused on > immediate threats from its Arab neighbors, strong > deterrence and a > first-strike capability. Israel may be hoping its > increased > readiness will further deter Arab nations from > involving themselves > in a larger war. > > _______________________________________________ > > (c) 2000 Stratfor, Inc. > <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/">www.ctrl.org</A> DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. Proselytizing propagandic screeds are unwelcomed. Substance�not soap-boxing�please! These are sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory'�with its many half-truths, mis- directions and outright frauds�is used politically by different groups with major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought. That being said, CTRLgives no endorsement to the validity of posts, and always suggests to readers; be wary of what you read. CTRL gives no credence to Holocaust denial and nazi's need not apply. Let us please be civil and as always, Caveat Lector. ======================================================================== Archives Available at: http://peach.ease.lsoft.com/archives/ctrl.html <A HREF="http://peach.ease.lsoft.com/archives/ctrl.html">Archives of [EMAIL PROTECTED]</A> http:[EMAIL PROTECTED]/ <A HREF="http:[EMAIL PROTECTED]/">ctrl</A> ======================================================================== To subscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SUBSCRIBE CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] To UNsubscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SIGNOFF CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] Om
